WPAC: INVEST 96W

[euro6208]

6.0N-153.0E

South of chuuk or southeast of guam...

[ManilaTC]

Models have been picking this one up as well. Problem is, this one is forecast to be another storm and with a Southern Luzon strike as well.

[dexterlabio]

At first I thought this one is the blob east of Mindanao that broken off Doksuri's circulation.

And yes, this area has been indicated by models to spawn another system. Only time will tell if this will indeed follow after Doksuri.

[ManilaTC]

UPGRADED TO MEDIUM BY JTWC

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.4N
152.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.3N 144.5E, APPROXIMATELY 640 NM SOUTH
OF GUAM. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION OVER A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE CYCLONE EXISTS IN TANDEM WITH THE LLCC DISCUSSED
IN PARA 2.B.(1) AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTERLY WIND BURST IN THE
EQUATORIAL LATITUDES. A 271401Z OCEANSAT IMAGE REVEALS 25-35 KNOT
WESTERLIES ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION AND A WEAK BUT
WELL-DEFINED LLCC. A 272202Z SSMIS IMAGE AND A 280001Z IMAGE BOTH
INDICATE MORE ORGANIZED AND DEVELOPED CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE AREA
WITH AN APPARENT POINT SOURCE OVER THE CONVECTION. A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE AREA AND IS ALSO PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW INTO THE DIVERGENT SIDE
OF THE TUTT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW AT 05-10 KNOTS BUT AS THE
AREA PROCEEDS WEST IT WILL MOVE INTO AN AREA OF STRONG VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (25-30 KNOTS), WHICH WILL HAMPER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS
SOME MODEL DEVELOPMENT INDICATED IN THE LATER TAUS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND BETTER ORGANIZATION
OF THE CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

such a large system so close to the equator...

[dexterlabio]

interesting that this is gaining momentum while located very near the equator.

[dexterlabio]

If you'll look at the latest Euro runs you can see a trace of a low pressure system tracking off towards Eastern Luzon on the 3rd and 4th of July. Maybe they are already starting to track it as a potential system but keeping it very weak for now. GFS still shows it tracking towards Southern Luzon, near Manila...though i notice their forecasts are alternating from a weak system to a more significant TC every other run.

Latest GFS 2800z


ECMWF 2800z


Multi-model

[RobWESTPACWX]

This really has improved with its outflow over the past 12 hours. Plus on JMAs surface analysis you can see a semi circ. in the wind barbs.

Im starting to think more of a chance of development with this one. I would say maybe 60% chance at this time.

My thoughts though!

[dexterlabio]

^i just watched your latest video update and i agree with you on the Coriolis, this must still gain latitude in order to get some Coriolis effect and maintain its circulation spinning...although this already has a good outflow.

latest GFS model still shows a southern Luzon strike, but i notice the 2 previous run show TC development on the 30th or july 1st. i think development could start a bit earlier unless there will be some strong shear hampering development within the next 2 days...

[euro6208]

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 280514
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
314 PM CHST THU JUN 28 2012

PMZ161-171-290700-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-
314 PM CHST THU JUN 28 2012

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTHEAST OF YAP DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWEST...

A POORLY DEFINED TROPICAL DISTURBANCE...INVEST AREA 96W...IS
SOUTHEAST OF YAP AND SOUTH OF WOLEAI. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND NORTH AND WEST OF THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS YAP
STATE. PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AT YAP BY FRIDAY...AND KOROR BY FRIDAY
EVENING. THE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWEST...PASSING BY
KOROR ON SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AT WOLEAI
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY AT YAP AND KOROR NEAR HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

SEAS OF 3 TO 4 FT NEAR KOROR...NGULU AND YAP WILL BUILD TO BETWEEN 4
AND 6 FEET BY SUNDAY. HAZARDOUS SURF IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

PEOPLE PLANNING INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL BY BOAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND CHECK WITH THE LOCAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE BEFORE ATTEMPTING SUCH TRAVEL. KEEP ALERT FOR
ANY LATER STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

$$

AYDLETT

[phwxenthusiast]

TCFA just issued by JTWC

[dexterlabio]

WTPN22 PGTW 282300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 2.0N 143.7E TO 6.0N 138.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY
AT 282230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 2.2N
143.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.3N
144.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.2N 143.3E, APPROXIMATELY 530 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION AROUND
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
LOCATED AT THE EQUATORWARD LIMIT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. A 281828Z
SSMI 85 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS BROAD SPIRAL BAND CURVATURE DRAPED SOUTH OF
THE LLCC. SCATTEROMETRY DATA FROM A 281452Z PARTIAL PASS INDICATES A
LARGE SWATH OF 20 KNOT WINDS OVER AND NEAR THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE LLCC WITH ENHANCED WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTHWEST ENGENDERED BY A
BUFFER CELL LOCATED NEAR 134E ON THE EQUATOR. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A POINT SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS
PROVIDING FOR WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (05-10 KNOTS) AND GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. EARLY INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WARNING CRITERIA
(25 KNOTS) COULD BE MET WITHIN 24 HOURS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SURFACE WIND FIELDS ARE CURRENTLY HAVING SOME TROUBLE WITH THE
DEPICTION OF THIS LLCC AND SHOW THE AREA AS ONE LARGER CIRCULATION
AROUND THE MONSOON TROUGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-29 CELSIUS), THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
292300Z.//
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

it looks more and more likely that this will develop. GFS remains consistent with a Visayas-Southern Luzon track by next week then going towards China. Latest Euro model doesn't show anything significant at all with this system...I'm afraid this run will be a bust, unless there will be unexpected hampering of development within the next few days.

[Infdidoll]

Looks good on satellite, right now. Seems to be developing good inflow/outflow...But I'm sitting in the hotel waiting to fly out of Okinawa for good tomorrow and don't have the time to sit and analyze and check out the weather charts to see what other factors are at play. If I'm not around for a long time, you'll know why. Moves are a @#$%.

Stay safe out there. We're flying to Guam for our first layover so the path between here and there better stay clear!

[RobWESTPACWX]

Looks good on satellite, right now. Seems to be developing good inflow/outflow...But I'm sitting in the hotel waiting to fly out of Okinawa for good tomorrow and don't have the time to sit and analyze and check out the weather charts to see what other factors are at play. If I'm not around for a long time, you'll know why. Moves are a @#$%.

Stay safe out there. We're flying to Guam for our first layover so the path between here and there better stay clear!

Have a good flight! Tell the States I said hi.

[RobWESTPACWX]

The latest...

WTPN22 PGTW 282300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 2.0N 143.7E TO 6.0N 138.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY
AT 282230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 2.2N
143.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.3N
144.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.2N 143.3E, APPROXIMATELY 530 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION AROUND
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
LOCATED AT THE EQUATORWARD LIMIT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. A 281828Z
SSMI 85 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS BROAD SPIRAL BAND CURVATURE DRAPED SOUTH OF
THE LLCC. SCATTEROMETRY DATA FROM A 281452Z PARTIAL PASS INDICATES A
LARGE SWATH OF 20 KNOT WINDS OVER AND NEAR THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE LLCC WITH ENHANCED WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTHWEST ENGENDERED BY A
BUFFER CELL LOCATED NEAR 134E ON THE EQUATOR. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A POINT SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS
PROVIDING FOR WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (05-10 KNOTS) AND GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. EARLY INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WARNING CRITERIA
(25 KNOTS) COULD BE MET WITHIN 24 HOURS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SURFACE WIND FIELDS ARE CURRENTLY HAVING SOME TROUBLE WITH THE
DEPICTION OF THIS LLCC AND SHOW THE AREA AS ONE LARGER CIRCULATION
AROUND THE MONSOON TROUGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-29 CELSIUS), THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
292300Z.//
NNNN

[Typhoon Hunter]

Looks good on satellite, right now. Seems to be developing good inflow/outflow...But I'm sitting in the hotel waiting to fly out of Okinawa for good tomorrow and don't have the time to sit and analyze and check out the weather charts to see what other factors are at play. If I'm not around for a long time, you'll know why. Moves are a @#$%.

Stay safe out there. We're flying to Guam for our first layover so the path between here and there better stay clear!

Gonna miss you and your reporting from Okinawa, you better still frequent the Wpac threads Safe travels!

[euro6208]

direction of palau...


000
WWPQ80 PGUM 290029
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1029 AM CHST FRI JUN 29 2012

PMZ161-171-291200-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-
1029 AM CHST FRI JUN 29 2012

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF YAP...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WAS CENTERED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WOLEAI IN YAP
STATE NEAR 2N AND 143E AT 900 AM CHST. A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER ON THIS
SYSTEM. THE DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT
5 MILES PER HOUR.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND OVER A BROAD
AREA INCLUDING YAP STATE AND THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. PERIODS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS YAP AND PALAU THROUGH SUNDAY. THE DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWEST...PASSING NEAR KOROR SATURDAY NIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AT YAP AND KOROR NEAR HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

RESIDENTS OF THE ATOLLS IN YAP STATE AND PALAU NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE EVOLUTION AND PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS INCLUDES
RESIDENTS OF WOLEAI AND NGULU OF YAP STATE AND SONSOROL AND KAYANGEL
OF PALAU.

OPEN-OCEAN SEAS ACROSS YAP STATE AND PALAU ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO
BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAZARDOUS SURF IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PEOPLE PLANNING INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL BY BOAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND CHECK WITH THE LOCAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE BEFORE ATTEMPTING SUCH TRAVEL. KEEP ALERT FOR
ANY LATER STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

$$

AYDLETT

[euro6208]

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

[windysocks]

Infdidoll, hope you have a hassle-free move and safe journey home. I don't post much but have always enjoyed your updates from Okinawa!