ATL: INVEST 97L

[brunota2003]

Wow the BAMS is booking it! That is quite fast imo, and anything like that cant possibly keep a surface circulation intact.

[cycloneye]

No matter what eventually happens, it is still rather interesting seeing something like this so early in the season.

Agree 100% on that. Since it left Africa it has mantained the circulation and that was when our friend Aric spotted it and made the thread at TT.

[Gustywind]

Anyway, an Invest is progressing towards the islands, always something to monitor carefully even if its "only the beginning" of the hurricane season.

[meteortheologist]

Decent system, would be a real contender in August/September but as Wxman57 said, conditions very soon become horrid for this system. I'd be amazed if we got anything out of this.

you absolutely never know though. the creation of this system is just as unpredictable as its longevity and the path it will take

[JGrin87]

Decent system, would be a real contender in August/September but as Wxman57 said, conditions very soon become horrid for this system. I'd be amazed if we got anything out of this.

you absolutely never know though. the creation of this system is just as unpredictable as its longevity and the path it will take

Given the environment 97 is heading in to, it pretty safe to say this is going anywhere. So, you kind of do know.

[meteortheologist]

Decent system, would be a real contender in August/September but as Wxman57 said, conditions very soon become horrid for this system. I'd be amazed if we got anything out of this.

you absolutely never know though. the creation of this system is just as unpredictable as its longevity and the path it will take

Given the environment 97 is heading in to, it pretty safe to say this is going anywhere. So, you kind of do know.

how can you say "safe to say this is going anywhere" and then follow it with "you kind of do know?"
my point is that these systems work in mysterious ways

[JGrin87]

Given the environment 97 is heading in to, it pretty safe to say this is going anywhere. So, you kind of do know.[/quote]
how can you say "safe to say this is going anywhere" and then follow it with "you kind of do know?"
my point is that these systems work in mysterious ways[/quote]


I think you misread what I said. This system is relatively predictable given the environment. I'd say close to 0% chance of development.

To say these systems "work is mysterious ways" is just flat out ignorant given the facts we have.

[cycloneye]

Ok folks, let's end that discussion,thank you.

[hurricaneCW]

The tropics can still be very much unpredictable so while theoretically the chances of development are near zero, saying definitely nothing will happen is still too bold to say.

[abajan]

@cycloneye
Please put a link to this thread in your closing post of the Strong Wave East of Windward Islands thread in the same manner that there's a link to that thread in your opening post of this thread. I had emailed a couple folks about this wave and included a link to the now closed Talking Tropics thread. So, it would be great if they could just click a link in your last post there to bring them here.

[Gustywind]

@cycloneye
Please put a link to this thread in your closing post of the Strong Wave East of Windward Islands thread in the same manner that there's a link to that thread in your opening post of this thread. I had emailed a couple folks about this wave and included a link to the now closed Talking Tropics thread. So, it would be great if they could just click a link in your last post there to bring them here.

Great idea Abajan . I surely think that Cycloneye will help us in that way

[Aric Dunn]

looks like we will have to wait for 00z runs

[cycloneye]

@cycloneye
Please put a link to this thread in your closing post of the Strong Wave East of Windward Islands thread in the same manner that there's a link to that thread in your opening post of this thread. I had emailed a couple folks about this wave and included a link to the now closed Talking Tropics thread. So, it would be great if they could just click a link in your last post there to bring them here.

Done now. Thank you for alerting me of that as I forgot.

[KWT]

The ECM is probably about the same speed as the BAM suite, reaches the E.Caribbean by Sunday night, so about 24hrs faster than the current forecasted estimates.

[KWT]

Judging from the fact that the models are suggesting an area of heightened instability in the EPAC in the next 7-10 days, if this system can slow down in the Caribbean and gain enough latitude, it could be something to watch once it gets into the far W.Caribbean/BoC especially if those more favourable conditions do start to spread across somewhat.

I've already said personally what I think of this system in the next few days.

[cycloneye]

You can see easily the TUTT trough.If it can survive that treck,then it may be in more favorable conditions and be SW of the ULL that can ventilate it.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Can you please show me where it is on that map, Cyclone?

[cycloneye]

Can you please show me where it is on that map, Cyclone?

Red dot at center of graphic.

[Hurricane Andrew]

No, the TUTT

[cycloneye]

No, the TUTT

Where you see the 40/30/20 lines to the upper left side is where the Tutt is located.