2012 SE TX/SW LA Weather:Cold/cool week.

[vbhoutex]

Here is a very interesting and possibly disturbing read from Larry Cosgrove.
http://www.examiner.com/article/weekend-weather-forecast-for-houston-texas-and-vicinity-friday-june-22-2012

[Jagno]

I knew if I painted my house bad things would happen. I started at 6am this morning and finished the whole back side at 2pm. My arms now hate me. The last time I painted it......................we had Rita. I keep seeing these models but I'm not seeing possible strengths mentioned. I know it's a long way off (6-7 days) however I like to have an idea of what I'm up against. Being smack in the middle of the projected targets I've seen of New Orleans and now Houston is not in my comfort zone.

When the temps get over 95 I worry so much about my two black labs. One is a long haired and the other is a short haired. I will get the fans ready to install on the top of their kennel along with a mister. I think I'll also go ahead and put the shade cloth up over the entire kennel instead of just 1/2 of the top. I might as well put their swimming pool back inside the kennel. We are going to have to take extra care of potted plants to keep them from drying out along with early morning and evening watering of everything else.

Okay so the back of the house is painted so I guess I'd better rush to finish the last garden bed and big projects before the heat/storms settle in. Take care everyone and remember to drink alot of water.

[southerngale]

NWS Lake Charles thoughts in their afternoon AFD, regarding 96L

ALL EYES FOCUSED ON THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE SERN
GULF OF MEXICO...AND ITS IMPACT ON THE COMPUTER MODELS. EARLIER
MODEL RUNS WERE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH ITS SOLUTIONS ON POTENTIAL
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER 12Z RUNS HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON EVENTUAL SYSTEM EVOLUTION. ATTM ALL BUT THE
GFS ARE GATHERING AROUND THE IDEA OF THE RIDGE BUILDING FURTHER
EAST...PUSHING THE TROF OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE WEAK
SHEAR ALOFT IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN...ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO
STRENGTHEN AS WELL AS DEVELOP A CLOSED SFC CIRCULATION. WITH THE
LACK OF A GOOD STEERING FEATURE ALOFT THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
DRIFT NWD TO NNEWD INTO THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE RIDGE FINALLY
TAKES FURTHER HOLD OVER THE SRN CONUS AND PUSHES IT WWD ACROSS THE
NRN GULF. WITH THIS LOW NOW PROGGED TO MOVE BACK TOWARD THE TX
COAST...THIS USHERS IN THE NEED TO INCLUDE POPS OVER PARTS OF THE
AREA LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. GREATEST IMPACTS WOULD OBVIOUSLY
BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT LOW END POPS HAVE BEEN INSERTED
OVER MAINLY THE SRN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY
(MUCH SOONER FAR SERN ZONES) AND THEN SPREAD WWD THROUGH MID-WEEK.
HOWEVER DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF ANY
POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM...POPS AND WINDS HAVE BEEN TEMPERED TO
ACCOUNT.

IN ADDITION TO POTENTIAL TROPICAL HEADACHES...COMBINATION OF
INCREASING HEAT AND RISING DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD TO VERY WARM
APPARENT TEMPS DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100F BY SUNDAY...THEN WILL CLIMB
TO TRIPLE DIGITS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER WITH THE STRONG
RIDGE PROGGED ALOFT...AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE
HIGH SIDE GIVEN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL TREND FOR DRIER AIR TO MIX DOWN
DURING THE DAY DURING THESE TYPES OF EVENTS. STAY TUNED TO LATER
FORECASTS FOR A BETTER REFINEMENT OF THE POTENTIAL HEAT THREAT.

[vbhoutex]

Jeff Lindner's morning email:

Tropical cyclone formation increasingly likely in the Gulf of Mexico.

Residents along the US Gulf coast should closely monitor the progress of this system.

Short term:

Ridge of high pressure has built over the area pushing the deep tropical moisture to the south and west. Will see little chance of rainfall for the next 2-3 days as high pressure will be in full control. High temperatures will increase each day and peak out near 100 Mon-Tues of next week. Heat index values during the afternoon hours may reach/exceed 105, but do not look to exceed 108 over a widespread area…so at this time no heat advisory. Rain chances will be near 0 through Monday.

Long Term:

Extended portion of the forecast will be fully focused on tropical developments and possible impacts in the Gulf of Mexico. A large broad circulation has developed near the northern coast of the Yucatan WNW of Cancun. Deep convection is in progress on the eastern side of this circulation over the western Caribbean Sea, but little convection is noted near the circulation. The system is still evolved in the large trough axis extending from MX to the Bahamas and undergoing moderate westerly wind shear. Upper level conditions are forecasted to improve and NHC currently gives the system a 70% chance of development within the next 48 hours.

Track/Intensity:

The system will be caught in a region of weak steering currents between a trough of low pressure along the SE US coast and building high pressure over the southern plains and TX. Models continue to have a very hard time resvolving the flow pattern which is not surprising given the very weak steering currents. The lose consensus is for the system to drift northward over the weekend at a slow rate of speed and then stall over the northern Gulf south of the LA/MS coast as the SE US trough lifts out leaving the system behind in the northern Gulf. High pressure over the southern plains will likely build westward behind the departing trough and begin to push the tropical system toward the W or WSW next week. This idea has support from the EURO, CMC, UKMET, and HWRF models while the GFS and GFDL take the system more toward the N or ENE becoming increasingly caught in the SE US trough. Still a lot of uncertainty with a very disorganized system and the fact that the forward motion will be extremely slow giving the steering patterns time to change over the next 5-7 days.

As far as intensity is concerned, such broad systems usually take days to consolidate and this looks to be the case with 96L as development is expected to be slow. Once a well defined low level center does develop intensification into a tropical storm looks likely and is support by almost all of the intensity guidance. Slow storm motion could cause some cold water upwelling especially since the circulation will be large which could negate development over the next 2-3 days some. It should be noted that the hurricane forecasting model (HWRF) does deepen the system to 990mb off the central Louisiana coast by the end of its forecast cycle, but this model can have a high end bias at times.

Impacts:

For now will only start to bump up tides and seas starting late this weekend and hold off any other possible impacts until greater model consensus is reached and an actual system is formed.

Tides:

Tides continue to run 1-2 feet above normal along much of the TX coast due to constant ENE wind flow over the northern Gulf. With low pressure forecast to deepen into a tropical system over the central Gulf this weekend, pressure gradient between this low and the southern US high will increase the ENE flow across the northern Gulf. This will increase swells and bring to push even more water toward the TX coast. Expect an additional 1 foot of tidal increase by late in the weekend pushing levels to 2-3 feet above normal or totals tides of 3.5-4.0 feet. Warning thresholds along the coast post hurricane Ike are in the 3.5-4.0 feet level and expected tides by late in the weekend/early next week will be near those levels. May start to see overwash and coastal flooding as times of high tide as early as late Sunday, but more likely early next week. Residents along the coast, or those planning to visit the beaches this weekend should be aware of the flooding potential and be prepared to move off the beaches at times of high tide. Should a tropical system enter into the western Gulf next week, tides could be elevated even higher if what appears to be a possible prolonged coastal flooding event.

Residents are urged to keep updated on developments over the weekend.

[sequoyah101]

Is the Tomball raindrop counter at Hooks moved into a garage or something?

It has not moved in weeks and all the others around show rain above normal.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_dwh

[vbhoutex]

Well so much for some rain from Debby. 102f at the house today. I'll probably have to start watering before the end of the week. Galveston hit 98f today breaking a 135 yr. record.

[sequoyah101]

No, no rain from Debby. None in the forecast either and nothing but hot in our future. This is looking like a late repeat of last year again. I pray not but there is not a thing we can do about it as we always know.

It is a shame though to see so many trees dead and know that on the heels of last year there will just be more and more dead in this upcoming heat and dry.

I know we up here in Montgomery, Waller and Grimes County area are really twitchy after the fire last year. The area of devastation West of Magnolia and north of 1488 is overwhelmingly depressing.

[CajunMama]

It's too hot to even cook. According to the closest underground station it's 102 with a heat index of 108. I couldn't tell you the last time the humidity was 32%. It's hot and dry. The wind is blowing out of the north. Shouldn't that be a cool wind? I'll just have to trick my mind into believing it is!!!

[vbhoutex]

That is why I threw a chicken in the crock pot at lunch time. High here at the house 102f and it is still 100f. The official high 102f. Galveston hit 100f today which is the first time that has ever happened in June. Not looking forward to the 101f-103f predicted for the rest of the week. I do not like the trend I am seeing. I hope we aren't heading back into a deep drought where the heat perpetuates the drought perpetuates the heat that perpetuates the drought...

[vbhoutex]

Had a good old fashioned Texas thunderstorm here at the house this afternoon. Ended up with 0.70" of rain in a little less than an hour. After it moved from our area, the parts South of us turned severe with flooding rain and hail. 97f was the high at the house today. Almost felt cool. Went down to 73f during the storm. Haven't seen a temp that low in a while. Now back up to 88f and it is 7:30pm. Loving the forecast for Saturday-a high of 89f with 50% chance of rain!!

[Jagno]

I've literally spent thousands due to this intense heat. I had two central units go out within an hour of one another. The motor burnt on one and the condenser on the other.............both as a result of running non-stop.

We still have no mature trees since Rita so I finally broke down and bought two large tents to put over our decks so we can at least enjoy early morning and late evenings outdoors with our black labs.

I broke down and bought another box fan and a misting system just for the dog kennel. I have shade cloth on the kennel but they were still just miserable.

DH decided this evening that we needed another large above ground pool so that went up this evening.

Are we missing anything? I think we've tried just about everything we can to try and stay alive in this terrible heat for our families up coming 4th celebration.

Okay, so a large storm brewing could have done the trick much quicker but I was trying to stay positive..........right up until I saw that massive blob of storms festering in the Gulf. Mother nature was laughing at my simple plans to stay cool.

[CajunMama]

SE Tx is getting some nice storms today. Lucky you!!!!! Nada here to your east.

[vbhoutex]

Got 2.15" so far today and just had some more showers about half an hour ago. Could see some more overnight. Wish we could send some your way CM, but this system is moving West.

edit Sun am- another .15" brings the day to 2.30" with more coming in from the S now at 9 am.

[Jagno]

Happy Independence Day! I just checked the remainder of this weeks forcast and was soooooo excited to see significant rain chances back in the forecast starting Friday through the weekend and beginning of next week. My tolerance for this heat is waning. I'm ready for a break.

[vbhoutex]

Jeff's email:

Large ridge of high pressure over the central US into the eastern US will move slowly into the western US this weekend and this will keep TX on the southern edge of this high pressure dome. SE TX will continue to lie near the edge of the ridge allowing moisture and disturbances to approach and move into the area from the east over the next week.

Daily pattern of seabreeze showers and thunderstorms will continue today and Friday with 20-30% coverage during the afternoon hours. Storms have been really good rainfall producers where they have developed (I picked up 1.95 yesterday, and totaled 4.83 inches since last Thursday). Weak steering winds will yield slow storm motions and good rainfall under the stronger cores…a good example of a few will get a really good dumping while others only miles away remain dry.

Better chances for widespread rains move into the area this weekend into much of next week as several upper level lows look to move westward along the northern Gulf coast into TX. Each feature will bring with it an increase in moisture and a good chance at showers and thunderstorms as a tropical air mass moves back into the region. GFS is showing fairly high rain chances 50-60% each day starting on Saturday into the middle of next week and this seems reasonable given the forecasted favorable thermo profiles and general lack of ridging and subsidence aloft coupled with tropical moisture influx.

Overall not looking at significantly organized storms, just more coverage along the local seabreeze each afternoon and along outflow boundaries. Tropical air mass will continue to provide good rainfall rates, but lack of cell mergers and long lasting/training storms should negate any flooding threat. Increased rainfall and cloud cover will continue to hold temperatures in the lower 90’s for highs with muggy overnights in the mid 70’s (normal for this time of year). Oppressive humidity will continue to make it “feel” warmer than it actually is….but still a for cry from last summer!

[southerngale]

A few pics of a funnel cloud in Jefferson County yesterday:

[vbhoutex]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
553 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 550 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR JACINTO CITY...AND
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PASADENA...CHANNELVIEW...CLOVERLEAF...SOUTH HOUSTON...
GALENA PARK AND JACINTO CITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR
PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

[Jagno]

We've had some really nice gentle soaking rains today for about 4 hours. The rumbling thunder and steady raindrops on the metal roof made for excellent napping weather. LOL I'm just so thankful for the lower temperatures and slow rains. We really needed both.

[NDG]

Lots of tropical moisture in the GOM now moving northward towards the northern gulf coast, thanks to the tropical wave that moved across the Caribbean earlier. UL divergence along with some LL convergence is helping to squeeze out some of that tropical moisture. Things look to stay active for the next few days as the weakness stays in your area as the heat ridge moves towards the western States and the Atlantic ridge strengthens and stays to your east.

[vbhoutex]

Lots of tropical moisture in the GOM now moving northward towards the northern gulf coast, thanks to the tropical wave that moved across the Caribbean earlier. UL divergence along with some LL convergence is helping to squeeze out some of that tropical moisture. Things look to stay active for the next few days as the weakness stays in your area as the heat ridge moves towards the western States and the Atlantic ridge strengthens and stays to your east.

Hoping some of the rains to our E and S finally make it to my house. We had a huge 0.05" yesterday . At least we are seeing rains on the radar and the heat is gone.

edit to add(2pm): Just finished about 2 hours of on and off rain and TONS of loud, long, window rattling thunder. It appears that the system over the metro area is raining itself out.