WPAC: DOKSURI - Post-Tropical

[ManilaTC]

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[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 007
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 07W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 19.2N 124.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 124.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 20.2N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 21.2N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 22.0N 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 22.9N 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 24.0N 111.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 124.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (DOKSURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 280000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z
AND 290300Z.//
NNNN



WDPN31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (DOKSURI)
WARNING NR 07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 07W (DOKSURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
345 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL-CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED
APPROXIMATELY 170 NM TO THE WEST DUE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT)
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 272340Z SSMIS 37 GHZ
IMAGE INDICATES A VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE WITH VERY SHALLOW,
FRAGMENTED CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE EXPOSED
LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN MSI
IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS LOWERED TO
TD STRENGTH DUE TO THE EXPOSED, BUT WELL-DEFINED, LLCC. THE LLCC
HISTORY OF THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN ONE OF MULTIPLE MESO-VORTICES
CONTAINED WITHIN ONE LARGER, YET ELONGATED, CIRCULATION. THERE
REMAINS SOME CONCERN ABOUT A POSSIBLE RE-FORMATION OF ANOTHER LLCC
UNDER THE DEEPEST CONVECTION, CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN LUZON, AS IT
EMERGES OFF THE NORTHWESTERN PHILIPPINE COAST. HOWEVER, CLOUD TOPS
HAVE BEEN WARMING OVER THE PAST THREE HOURS AND THIS FLARE OF DEEP
CONVECTION MAY HAVE BEEN TOPOGRAPHICALLY INDUCED. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT VWS HAS INCREASED TO STRONG LEVELS OVER THE
PAST 06-12 HOURS AS MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BUILDS
IN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, PRESSURE FROM A WESTWARD
MOVING TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL, EVIDENT IN
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, CONTINUES TO IMPINGE ON TD 07W. THE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIR BUT POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS NOW
COMPLETELY CUT OFF, AND THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PROPAGATING
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM IS TOO SHALLOW AND TOO FAR POLEWARD FOR TD
07W TO TAP INTO. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT (OHC) REMAIN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE AS THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC WARM POOL.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TD 07W IS CURRENTLY STEERING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EAST-WEST ORIENTATED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR),
WHICH EXTENDS WESTWARD OVER TAIWAN AND EASTERN CHINA. THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST, TD 07W SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR AND MAKE LANDFALL NEAR
HONG KONG. TD 07W IS EXPECTED TO MARGINALLY INTENSIFY TO 35 KNOTS
BY TAU 24 AS VWS MAY TEMPORARILY SLACKEN TO MODERATE LEVELS DUE TO
A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION UNDERNEATH THE STEERING STR. TD 07W
SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERLAND JUST NORTH OF HONG KONG BY TAU 72 AS A
WEAK TD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CLUSTERED WITHIN A TIGHT
ENVELOPE AND THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SLIGHTLY DEVIATES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN REGARDS TO THE LANDFALL POSITION NEAR HONG KONG. EVEN
THOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE TRACK, THE
COMPLEX HISTORY OF THE LLCC STRUCTURE AND STRONG VWS DEGRADE THE
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE TO LOW DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY THAT TD 07W
MAY NOT SURVIVE THE CURRENT HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Wow.



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such a perfect circle that one

[dexterlabio]

i just don't care about its center anymore , I'm concerned about the effects of the thick deep convection affecting Northern Luzon.

whoa this case is reminiscent to Ketsana's burst of convection then. But I must say the deep convection took hours over Luzon back in Ketsana which turned out really really bad. I hope there are no reports of serious flooding, landslides from this, and luckily there are no such reports as of now.

[RobWESTPACWX]

I stressed exactly that in my update today Dexter, the center is only to be taken with a grain of salt, The real effects are in that big area of convection. The little reports I have got so far are windy and rainy conditions etc. I have not seen any confirmed reports of serios flooding though. Fingers crossed it stays that way but unfortunetly given the intensity of that big ball of rain showers on the sat image I fear that something might come out of this.

[Typhoon Hunter]

My word there's been another utterly extreme blow up of convection W and SW of the centre, I imagine this is due to the very high (and above average) SSTs which are prevailing the Wpac and S China Sea this season.

Simply put in the years I've been tracking TC's I've never seen a convective blow up this large in size!



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[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 009
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 20.2N 121.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 121.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.9N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 22.0N 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 22.9N 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 23.6N 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 120.7E.
TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOKSURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM NORTH OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z. //
NNNN



WDPN31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOKSURI) WARNING
NR 09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (DOKSURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM
NORTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS ACCELERATED AND TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) HAS FORMED AND
DEEPENED FROM THE SHEARED CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL-
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC IS NOW HIDDEN UNDER THE CDO.
THIS DEVELOPMENT INDICATES THAT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS
RELAXED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS HAD
MULTIPLE VORTICES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A NEW DOMINANT VORTEX
EMERGING REMAINS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD AND SUPPORTED BY SURFACE
OBSERVATION FROM LAOAG, 100 NM TO THE SOUTH. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
LOW- TO MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. THE VWS
HAS WEAKENED DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOW MORE
IN-PHASE WITH THE STORM MOTION AND LOW LEVEL FLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING STR AND MAKE LANDFALL NEAR HONG KONG AFTER TAU 24 THEN
DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 48. IT IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY
AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH FAVORABLE VWS AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN A TIGHT
ENVELOPE WITH WBAR AS THE SOLE RIGHT OUTLIER. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS
JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET WBAR'S UNLIKELY
PULL TOWARD THE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT, THE
POSSIBILITY OF A NEW VORTEX BECOMING THE LLCC RENDERS THE TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW. //
NNNN

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 281517

A. TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOKSURI)

B. 28/1432Z

C. 20.3N

D. 120.4E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC LOCATED 7NM INTO
DG YIELDS A DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT ARE 3.0. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


NEWCOMER

looks like a stronger storm based on dvorak...

continuing to get organized as it nears the city-state of over 7 million- hong kong...

[RobWESTPACWX]

Six reports of deaths now that I have seen, here is my latest video on this area.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-xNH0GnT3e4[/youtube]

[phwxenthusiast]

surprising no one brought this up... apparently Taiwan's DOTSTAR conducted one recon mission on Doksuri on Wednesday morning (0627 12UTC)... they found wind speeds of around 30 to 40kts near the center...

here's the link:
http://typhoon.as.ntu.edu.tw/DOTSTAR/en ... .php?id=57

[euro6208]

down to 45 knots...

WTPN31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 19.7N 116.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 116.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.6N 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 21.5N 111.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 22.3N 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 23.3N 107.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 116.3E.
TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOKSURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 212 NM SOUTHEAST
OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.//
NNNN



WDPN31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOKSURI) WARNING
NR 11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOKSURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 212 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
THE COLD DENSE OVERCAST HAS BECOME MORE ELONGATED WITH STRONG SHEAR
FROM THE NORTHEAST AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE SLIGHTLY WARMED. THE MESO-
VORTICE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION HAS MAINTAINED AND
BECOME INCREASINGLY DISTANT AND ELONGATED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON A PGTW FIX WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. IT RESIDES IN THE
NORTHEASTERN SECTOR OF THE MAIN CONVECTION, CONTINUING WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. IT APPEARS THAT TS 07W HAS A STRONG
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT CONTINUES TO REACH DOWN AND CREATE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS (LLCC) THAT HAVE MADE TS DOKSURI SO HARD
TO TRACK. THE STRONG TO MODERATE (20-30 KNOTS) SHEAR ACTING ON THE
THE SYSTEM IS THEN SEPARATING THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM THE
LLCC AND THE PROCESS OF RE-DEVELOPING A NEW LLCC CONTINUES AS
OVERSHOOTING TOPS ARE CURRENTLY FORMING NEAR THE CURRENT POSITION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF 3.0/3.0. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THERE IS NO POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND OVERALL MODERATE
EQUATORWARD EXHAUST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TS 07W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED STEERING STR AND MAKE
LANDFALL SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG SLIGHTLY AFTER TAU 24, WHERE IT
WILL THEN DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 48. THE LANDFALL POSITION IS
IN NEAR AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS NUMERICAL MODEL
TRACKERS HAVE REMAINED TIGHTLY GROUPED. TS 07W SHOULD INTENSIFY TO
A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS AS IT TRACKS OVER FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (26-28 CELSIUS) AND UNDER THE IN-PHASE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS. NOGAPS HAS BECOME MORE INLINE WITH THE MAJORITY OF MODEL
CONSENSUS BUT GFS CONTINUES TO REMAIN THE LEFT MOST OUTLIER. THE
OFFICIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS, DUE
TO THE GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG TRACKERS, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

F. T1.5/2.0/W1.0/12HRS

[windysocks]

We have Graduation Day tomorrow and I can't work out whether this one will be a No. 8 signal tomorrow morning or not. I imagine that as it will pass to the south of Hong Kong it will be over quite quickly - we will not encounter the convection on the west / southwest side.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Winds picking up now in HK, sustained 45kts at Waglan island over last 10 minutes!

http://www.weather.gov.hk/wxinfo/ts/display_graph_e.htm?wgl&menu=otherwxi&rwx&addbar

[Typhoon10]

Gusts of 123kmh at the Big Buddha

Although HKO seems to have the track coming a lot closer to HK than JWTC's track?

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 20.7N 114.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 114.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 21.6N 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 22.1N 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 22.5N 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 114.2E.
TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOKSURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
291200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND
301500Z.
//
NNNN



WDPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOKSURI) WARNING
NR 13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (DOKSURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE COLD DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) HAS BECOME MORE ELONGATED
DUE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THE
CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE MAINTAINED THEIR TEMPERATURE. A 291006Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
THAT IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CDO. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED INSIDE THE CIRCULATION BUT UNDER THE CDO TO
MAINTAIN THE ESTABLISHED POSITIONING PHILOSOPHY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WAS AVERAGED FROM THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD
OF 35 AND 42 KNOTS, RESPECTIVELY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TS 07W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING STR
AND MAKE LANDFALL SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12 WELL SOUTH OF HONG KONG. IT
WILL STEADILY WEAKEN AS MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VWS PERSISTS AND
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 36. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE TIGHT
AGREEMENT AMONG THE VORTEX TRACKERS. //
NNNN

[KWT]

ECM has done an amazing job forecasting this one, pretty much spot on!

[francis327]

A quick re-cap of Tropical Storm Doksuri (07W). Data from JMA.

Name: 07W - Tropical Storm DOKSURI
Start Date: 25th June
End Date: 30th June
Max Intensity: 40kt
Min Intensity: 30kt

A total of 39 Advisories issued by RSMC - JMA

Storm Track Summary: http://www.westernpacificweather.com/we ... w-doksuri/

[Typhoon Hunter]

Footage I shot last night as Doksuri blew past Hong Kong:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9iXBP5CKCrA[/youtube]

[windysocks]

In fact it was very windy last night, but I'm starting to think that we've forgotten what a real typhoon is like in Hong Kong. Doksuri was only a tropical storm, and not a direct hit, but still, impressive footage!