
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST THU JUN 28 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE CNTRL ATLC SW ALONG
17N. TUTT WILL RETROGRESS TO THE WRN CARIB BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON MON AND HOLD
THRU MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ERN CARIB
SEA MON.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH FRI THEN
DIMINISH SAT. SCT AFTERNOON TSRA ARE XPCD FRI ACROSS WRN PR IN A
MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT DESPITE BEING ON CONVERGENT SIDE OF
TUTT AXIS. MUCH DRIER AIR EAST OF THE ANTILLES WILL MOVE OVER PR
ON SAT GREATLY DIMINISHING THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
MOISTURE INCREASES SUN AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE ACROSS THE CNTRL
TROP ATLC FOR BETTER CHANCES OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THEN
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN SEA MON WITH ENHANCED
CHANCES OF RAINFALL ACROSS ERN PR...SOUTH COAST AND CARIBBEAN SEA.
THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE ENVELOPE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND HAS
MODERATE AMOUNTS OF MID LEVEL ROTATION/SPIN SO IT DOES HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A DEPRESSION. TC CLIMATOLOGY
SUGGESTS TROPICAL STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE FIRST TEND DAYS OF
JULY TEND TO DO IT CLOSE TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH MOST OF
THEM STAYING WELL SOUTH OF PR. ONLY A FEW OF THEM HAD TAKEN A MORE
NORTHWEST HEADING. FOR NOW JUST THINK SOME BENEFICIAL SHOWERS AND
SQUALLY WEATHER ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. THINGS DRY
OUT RAPIDLY MON NIGHT. THEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE AREA WITH A RETURN TO THE DRY WEATHER THAT WE EXPERIENCED
MOST OF JUNE.
&&
.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR PR WILL PRODUCE MVFR
LCLY IFR CONDS WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS IN WESTERN PR LASTING TILL
28/22Z. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AT LOW AND MID LEVELS DUE TO A
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. ISO-SCT SHWRS
WILL MOVE INTO ERN PR AND THE USVI AFT 29/06Z AND CONT TIL ABOUT
29/15Z AFT WHICH DRYING WILL OCCUR. ONLY BRIEF MVFR CONDS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME IN THE USVI. LLVL WINDS E-ESE 10 TO 20
KT.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT THRU SUN THEN BUILD UP TO 7 FT AS PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE ERN CARIB SEA.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS WELL AS SOME SQUALLY WEATHER.
&&
.CLIMATE...TODAY MARKED THE 30TH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH MAXT AOA 90F
AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT. THIS NOW RANKS AS THE SECOND LONGEST
STREAK. THE LONGEST STREAK EVER WAS IN 1981 WHEN THERE WERE 35
CONSECUTIVE DAYS. THE MONTH WITH THE MOST 90F DEG DAYS WAS AUG OF
1982 WHEN THERE WERE 30 DAYS. JUNE 2012 HAS A PRETTY GOOD SHOT AT
TYING THAT RECORD.
SO FAR THIS MONTH THERE HAVE BEEN 10 DAYS WITH MINT AOA 80F. JUNE
2012 IS THE JUNE WITH THE MOST 80F DEG NIGHTS SURPASSING JUNE 1983
WHEN THERE WERE 7 NIGHTS.
JUNE 2012 WILL MORE THAN LIKELY END AS THE WARMEST JUNE ON RECORD
AND ALSO THE WARMEST MONTH OF ANY YEAR ON RECORD WARMER THAN ANY
JULY OR AUG WITH AN AVG TEMP SO FAR OF 85.7F DEGS. JUNE 2012 IS
ALSO VERY LIKELY TO END AS THE DRIEST JUNE ON RECORD AND IN THE
TOP FIVE DRIEST MONTHS OF ANY YEAR ON RECORD. THE DRIEST MONTH
EVER WAS MARCH 2005 WHEN ZERO RAINFALL WAS RECORDED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 92 79 92 / 30 30 10 10
STT 80 89 80 89 / 30 30 20 20