2012 U.S Severe Weather (Videos-Photos-Stats-Forecasts)

[EF-5bigj]

That is for certain tornado activity this year did start out strong but it has died down significantly. Funny thing is the weather service predicts storms for my area yet no storms are popping up El Nino certainly does a number on storm patterns.

[cycloneye]

That is for certain tornado activity this year did start out strong but it has died down significantly. Funny thing is the weather service predicts storms for my area yet no storms are popping up El Nino certainly does a number on storm patterns.

You are right about that. The season began very active and the peak was on that March 1-2 big event. Who thought that after that event,it would go down with some less stronger April and May events.

[EF-5bigj]

On my local radar im just seeing storms pop up but they don't hold togethor long and just weaken quickly. It just goes to show a forcast isn't always right but yeah it did peak in march certainly 2011 was much more active and destructive tornado wise. Although we have had a few EF-4's this year but no EF-5's as far as I know tornado wise.

[CrazyC83]

Somewhat like 2006 and 2009 which both had early peaks.

[Nicko999]

Impressive thunderstorm in Windsor, Ontario yesterday... in fact the low for the day (64.4F) was recorded after the storm, an hour after the high for the day (100.4F). That 36F drop is probably the biggest I've seen during a t-storm.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tqwvq2mLVKU[/youtube]

[Cyclenall]

On one of the American nightly news programs that air at 6:30 pm, they talked about the extreme heatwave but then mentioned a powerful severe weather outbreak around New England on Sunday and were "concerned" about it in terms of how bad it would be. This is very rare to see them talking about something like that (even major tornado outbreaks days away are rare to be mentioned) so I wonder if there's something to it. The SPC has a Slight risk for both today and tomorrow. Wouldn't it be crazy if another powerful derecho swept through the same areas that got badly hit last week and just when the last customers without power get it back after 9 days, get knocked out again for another week!!! Talk about a raw deal.

[Ntxw]

Some latest Tornado numbers for the year to date (it will probably be trimmed down some as prelims have extra noise). Usually after July we see less than 100 a month rest of the year. Of course there can still be outbreaks through December, but barring such an event 2012 could go down as one of the quietest years recently.

[Nicko999]

MASSIVE thunderstorm in Quebec City yesterday!!! 66.8 mm (2.63 inches) fell at the airport breaking the monthly all-time precipitation of 60.8 mm (2.39 inches) on July 20th, 2007.

[Nicko999]

Two tornadoes confirmed in eastern Ontario

Environment Canada is confirming that two tornadoes touched down in eastern Ontario Tuesday.

One, likely and F1 tornado, hit the Athens area near Brockville. The other, possibly an F0, touched down near Summerstown, east of Cornwall.

The twisters were a result of intense storms that tore through the region on one of the hottest days of the year. [/QUOTE]

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/s ... topstories

5 cm (2 inches) hail was also reported in St. Anicet, Quebec... that might be nothing for the Prairies/Plains but it's huge for here.

[Stephanie]

In this day and age with all of the available media, it doesn't seem as strange to this American to see/hear about tornadoes in other countries. With this heat, I guess something's gotta give, no matter where you live.

[cycloneye]

I had to post the day 2 outlook as the area it covers is rather large for Wednesday.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT TUE JUL 24 2012

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS/MID-MO
VALLEYS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...

...SYNOPSIS...
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER SRN ALBERTA WILL SHIFT EWD
ACROSS THE SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES BEFORE TURNING MORE SELY EARLY THU
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED
IMPULSES WILL LIKELY EJECT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WITHIN AN
INCREASINGLY-ZONAL FLOW REGIME IN THE N-CNTRL/NERN CONUS...AS
PRIMARY MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONES BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE...A CYCLONE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...WITH A SWWD ORIENTED COLD FRONT
PUSHING SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. A WARM FRONT WILL
ADVANCE NEWD FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE CNTRL/LOWER GREAT LAKES.

...GREAT LAKES/MID-MO AND UPPER MS VALLEYS...
A LARGELY ELEVATED MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 12Z/WED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES WITHIN A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL
WAA REGIME...WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR HAIL/WIND. THIS EARLY DAY
CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT THE NWD ADVANCEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT IN
WI/MI...AND STRENGTHEN THE BAROCLINICITY ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AS
INTENSE HEATING OCCURS IN THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...A VERY WARM EML
PLUME WILL EXTEND NEWD FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH
700 MB TEMPERATURES OF 10-14 C. THIS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP WARM
SECTOR DEVELOPMENT UNTIL SURFACE TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE 90S TO
AROUND 105 F.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT CONVECTION WILL FORM DURING
THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW/COLD FRONT FROM WI SWWD
INTO KS. POTENTIALLY THE MOST VOLATILE SETUP SHOULD EXIST ALONG THE
WARM FRONTAL ZONE INVOF E-CNTRL WI...WHERE DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL BE
STRONG AND BUOYANCY SHOULD BECOME MODERATE TO LARGE. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT INITIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS GROWING UPSCALE INTO
AN MCS ACROSS LOWER MI INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WED EVENING/NIGHT.
PRIMARY RISK APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WIND...BUT LARGE HAIL AND A
TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WITH SWRN EXTENT...INVERTED-V
TYPE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD COMPENSATE FOR PROGRESSIVELY
WEAKER MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WITH PRIMARY RISK BEING ISOLATED SEVERE
WIND.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IN A POST-FRONTAL REGIME SHOULD AID IN
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED TSTMS FORMING WED AFTERNOON/EVENING.
BUOYANCY SHOULD BE LIMITED...BUT MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL WIND/HAIL RISK.

...SRN APPALACHIANS/S ATLANTIC COAST...
MODEST MID-LEVEL N/NWLYS AROUND THE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST MAY SUPPORT A FEW LOOSELY-ORGANIZED CLUSTERS WED
AFTERNOON. DESPITE POOR HIGH-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODERATE TO LARGE
BUOYANCY SHOULD PROMOTE A RISK FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS.

..GRAMS.. 07/24/2012

[cycloneye]

Moderate Risk on July 26 for parts of the NE U.S


DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2012

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM OH TO PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES/MID-MS VALLEY NEWD TO SRN NEW ENGLAND...

...POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT/DERECHO ON THU
AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE
SEWD AND REACH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY EARLY FRI...WITH A
MODERATELY FAST ZONAL FLOW REGIME EXISTING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
NERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NEWD IN THE
NORTHEAST AND SHOULD REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT
LAKES. A SERIES OF WEAK CYCLONES SHOULD BE PREVALENT ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL INTERSECT A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD
FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY TO THE SRN PLAINS. IN THE WEST...MID-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

...MID-MS/OH VALLEYS TO THE NORTHEAST/SRN NEW ENGLAND...
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS...PARTICULARLY FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE NORTHEAST. AN MCS SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...SUPPORTED BY AN INITIAL MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX AND ROBUST
LOW-LEVEL WAA ADVECTION. THIS SHOULD RETARD THE NERN ADVANCEMENT OF
THE WARM FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION OF THIS ACTIVITY DOES BREED
UNCERTAINTY OVER WHERE THE FRONT WILL ULTIMATELY ANCHOR.

AN EXPANSIVE UNCAPPED WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY 90S/60S SURFACE
TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG
BUOYANCY THU AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE OF 2000-4000 J/KG. A LARGE SWATH
OF 30-50 KT 700-500 MB WLYS WILL OVERLAP THIS INSTABILITY...AND WITH
WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMBINING WITH FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE...THIS SETUP WILL YIELD SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS
FORMING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT UPSCALE
GROWTH INTO SEVERAL CLUSTERS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WINDS /POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD AND
SIGNIFICANT/ WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED TORNADO RISK SHOULD DEVELOP
ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE WHERE EFFECTIVE SRH AND STRONGEST
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED. ALTHOUGH PINPOINTING THIS
CORRIDOR IS DIFFICULT GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF PRECEDING OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...IT APPEARS MOST PROBABLE FROM PARTS OF NY INTO SRN NEW
ENGLAND. SOME CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DISCRETE
CONVECTION MAY FORM WITHIN A PERSISTING WAA REGIME THU AFTERNOON.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES...
DCVA DOWNSTREAM OF THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NRN MN
SHOULD FOSTER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS THU AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD FORM ALONG/AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SURGE
THAT WILL ACT MORE AS A DRYLINE CROSSING THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE
COMBINATION OF BUOYANCY/SHEAR SHOULD BE MODEST...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

...NRN ROCKIES...
A BELT OF CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN N OF THE BUILDING
RIDGE IN THE WEST. ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN LIMITED...ISOLATED
TSTMS SHOULD FORM HIGHER TERRAIN. SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
EXIST FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL.

..GRAMS.. 07/25/2012

[angelwing]

Not looking forward to this...I will be traveling in the "red" area tomorrow

[cycloneye]

:uarrow:

Not looking forward to this...I will be traveling in the "red" area tomorrow

Hopefully,all goes well with the travel and you dont have any problems.

[Cyclenall]

In the Moderate Risk a Derecho is possible, SPC mentions it. The same areas in OH that got hit weeks ago could again tomorrow; I'm sure they're thrilled about this .

[leenita]

this is what our local weather forcaster posted to facebook a little bit ago. I went thru the one a month or so in Ohio and I do not want to go thru it again. I hope its not nearly as bad as what they are saying its going to be:

The Storm Prediction Center is warning that another derecho is possible tomorrow. This is the type of storm that caused the widespread damage here in Ohio on June 29th.

A derecho (pronounced similar to "deh-REY-cho") is a widespread, long-lived wind storm that is associated with a band of rapidly moving showers or thunderstorms. Although a derecho can produce destruction similar to that of tornadoes, the damage typically is directed in one direction along a relatively straight swath. As a result, the term "straight-line wind damage" sometimes is used to describe derecho damage. By definition, if the wind damage swath extends more than 240 miles and includes wind gusts of at least 58 mph or greater along most of its length, then the event may be classified as a derecho.

The latest computer model suggests this possible scenerio may develop here in Central Ohio around 5PM. Remember to turn to us tomorrow as the Doppler 10 Weather Team will be on the air to keep you and your family safe. -Chris

[Dave]

Well I'm in the moderate risk area and on the western end of the 45% risk for damaging winds so looks like an interesting day coming up. Will be working regional first then switch to local as the day progresses. At 251 am edt it's still 85 degrees with a dew point of 71. Walked outside and it's an eerie feeling out there tonight. The trees know somethings coming, all the leaves are turned backwards.....bad feeling about this one...we'll see. Time to get a few hours of sleep.

[cycloneye]

Moderate Risk continues in the forecast for today in NE U.S

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 AM CDT THU JUL 26 2012

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF
IND...OH...PA...SRN NY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE SRN
PLAINS...GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY...NERN STATES AND MID ATLANTIC...

...SYNOPSIS...

SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH WILL UNDERGO GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION THURSDAY
OVER THE GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY AND NERN STATES. EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH IS A VORT MAX OVER SRN MANITOBA THAT WILL
DROP SWD THROUGH MN AND WI. ANOTHER IMPULSE OVER THE MID-UPPER MS
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND SRN PORTIONS OF THE
GREAT LAKES...REACHING THE NERN STATES THURSDAY NIGHT. FARTHER WEST
THE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE NRN ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST.

AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM A SFC LOW IN LOWER MI
SWWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND CNTRL PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
ADVANCE SEWD WHILE WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND.

...OH VALLEY THROUGH NERN STATES...

CORRIDOR OF MODERATE TO STRONG WSWLY DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL PERSIST
WITHIN BASE OF AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WITH 40-50 KT BETWEEN 850 AND
700 MB FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE NERN STATES. THE SWLY LLJ WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO NEWD DESTABILIZATION AS RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
/UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS/ ADVECTS NEWD IN WAKE OF ADVANCING WARM FRONT.
A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER A
PORTION OF NY INTO NEW ENGLAND. OTHER MORE ORGANIZED STORMS WITH A
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND MAY BE IN PROGRESS OVER SWRN NY OR NRN PA.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AS
DIABATIC WARMING COMMENCES AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. OTHER
STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS THE CAP WEAKENS. STRONG INSTABILITY WITH
2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 30-50 KT
DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL PROMOTE A THREAT OF WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AS
STORMS EVOLVE INTO LINES AND CLUSTERS. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO OR TWO...ESPECIALLY OVER A PART OF THE NERN STATES WHERE
STRONGER EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL EXIST NEAR AND JUST S OF THE WARM
FRONT.


...OK THROUGH MID MS VALLEY REGION...

OTHER STORMS WILL REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG SWRN EXTENSION OF
FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO
NRN PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS. MOST OF THIS REGION WILL REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH.
HOWEVER...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR A THREAT OF
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND DOWNBURSTS WITH MULTICELL CONVECTION AS
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ALONG THERMAL AXIS.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA...

RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN POST FRONTAL REGIME WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
60S ALONG WITH DIABATIC WARMING WILL PROMOTE AN AXIS OF MODEST
/1000-1500 J/KG/ MLCAPE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. DEEP FORCING FOR
ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZES. STORMS WILL EXIST WITHIN A UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW
REGIME WITH 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

..DIAL/SMITH.. 07/26/2012

[tomboudreau]

One round of storms rolled through between 4 and 5 this morning. A great lightning show was brought with these storms. When I went to work this morning, I noticed it was getting real humid and the feel in the atmostphere definately felt like it is going to be a bad afternoon. Also noticed while driving in that the are already rows of cumulus clouds starting to billow. Sky has the angry look to it. Really hope that nothing comes of this, but sure doesn't look like that. Will post later today as conditions start to change.

[angelwing]

One round of storms rolled through between 4 and 5 this morning. A great lightning show was brought with these storms. When I went to work this morning, I noticed it was getting real humid and the feel in the atmostphere definately felt like it is going to be a bad afternoon. Also noticed while driving in that the are already rows of cumulus clouds starting to billow. Sky has the angry look to it. Really hope that nothing comes of this, but sure doesn't look like that. Will post later today as conditions start to change.

TY for posting, I will be in Allentown around 2PM, hoping I miss it or at least will be indoors when it comes!