WPAC: INVEST 96W

[euro6208]

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 291226
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1026 PM CHST FRI JUN 29 2012

PMZ161-171-300000-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-
1026 PM CHST FRI JUN 29 2012

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF YAP...

AT 930 PM CHST...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WAS CENTERED ABOUT 470 MILES
SOUTHEAST YAP NEAR 5N AND 142E. A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
HAS BEEN ISSUED BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.
THE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 MILES PER HOUR.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND OVER MUCH OF
YAP STATE AND THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. ON ITS CURRENT TRACK...THE
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS NEAR KOROR SATURDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS OF 25
TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AT YAP AND KOROR NEAR HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

RESIDENTS OF THE ATOLLS IN YAP STATE AND THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS
INCLUDES RESIDENTS OF WOLEAI AND NGULU OF YAP STATE AND SONSOROL AND
KAYANGEL OF PALAU.

OPEN-OCEAN SEAS ACROSS YAP STATE AND THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HAZARDOUS SURF IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

CHECK WITH YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE BEFORE ATTEMPTING
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL. KEEP ALERT FOR ANY LATER STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE


THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.3N
142.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.7N 142.3E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION AROUND
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
LOCATED AT THE EQUATORWARD LIMIT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. A 281828Z
SSMI 85 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS BROAD SPIRAL BAND CURVATURE DRAPED SOUTH OF
THE LLCC. SCATTEROMETRY DATA FROM A 281452Z PARTIAL PASS INDICATES A
LARGE SWATH OF 20 KNOT WINDS OVER AND NEAR THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE LLCC WITH ENHANCED WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTHWEST ENGENDERED BY A
BUFFER CELL LOCATED NEAR 134E ON THE EQUATOR. UPPERLEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A POINT SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS
PROVIDING FOR WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (05-10 KNOTS) AND GOOD
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. EARLY INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WARNING CRITERIA
(25 KNOTS) COULD BE MET WITHIN 24 HOURS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SURFACE WIND FIELDS ARE CURRENTLY HAVING SOME TROUBLE WITH THE
DEPICTION OF THIS LLCC AND SHOW THE AREA AS ONE LARGER CIRCULATION
AROUND THE MONSOON TROUGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

[rdhdstpchld]

Happy Shopping Infidoll!!! Safe travels - sitting here in wildfire central...thought I'd get a break from crazy natural disasters after leaving the Rock...no such luck. Are you headed back to hurricane areas??

[RobWESTPACWX]

Here is my latest video, this area is the highlight but I also talk about Doksuri and the TC to the south.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVH6pRmgs30[/youtube]

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.7N
142.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.1N 140.0E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A LARGE, DISORGANIZED CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE
SYSTEM. A 292101Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE
WRAPPING LOOSELY INTO AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 291224Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH
15-20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT BUT SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKER WINDS OVER THE REMAINING QUADRANTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND STRONG, EASTERLY DIFFLUENCE ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL
POSITIONED NEAR GUAM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY
IN THE TIMING OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEVELOPMENT FROM 24 TO 48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
SEE REF C (WTPN22 PGTW 292300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

[dexterlabio]

do you think this could be a Fengshen-like system? forecast tracks from GFS reminds me of Fengshen's path across PI in 2008. I'm thinking if this really becomes a TC and traverses Visayas, it could remain unscathed or even find time to consolidate because the warm seas in between the Visayan islands can supply energy to it. If I recall it right, Fengshen became a major TY when it was well within the central Philippines. In any way, this looks like a serious threat to Manila IMO, less winds but heavy rains are enough to cause trouble here in the capital. Ketsana proved that last year.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org.

[euro6208]

it's been raining over here tremendously with the outflow of this invest right over us..

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.1N
140.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4N 138.3E, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH
OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
LARGE, DISORGANIZED CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A LOOSELY
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 292101Z WINDSAT PASS
SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM IS MORE WAVE-LIKE IN NATURE VERSUS A CLOSED LLCC
AT THE SURFACE, WHILE THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SEEN IN MSI APPEAR TO BE
ROTATING ABOUT A FIXED CENTER. THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDSAT WINDS ARE
GENERALLY 10-20 KNOTS AROUND THE WAVE, WITH A FEW 30 KNOT BARBS ON
THE EASTERN SIDE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH SOME EASTERLY DIFFLUENCE AND LIGHT (10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE 850 MB CIMSS VORTICITY ANALYSIS DEPICTS A
BROAD LOBE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE CYCLONIC VORTICITY. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE TIMING OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DEVELOPMENT FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. SEE REF A (WTPN22 PGTW 292300) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.


000
WWPQ80 PGUM 301248
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1048 PM CHST SAT JUN 30 2012

PMZ161-171-302200-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-
1048 PM CHST SAT JUN 30 2012

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF KOROR...

AT 930 PM CHST...THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WAS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF
KOROR NEAR 8N AND 135E. A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THIS SYSTEM.
THE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 20 MPH. THIS
MOTION WILL TAKE THE DISTURBANCE WEST OF PALAU OVERNIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU
AND YAP STATE...AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES AWAY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

OPEN-OCEAN SEAS ACROSS THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND YAP STATE ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FEET TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN
DECREASE TO AROUND 3 FEET BY MONDAY. HAZARDOUS SURF IS NOT EXPECTED.

THIS IS THE LAST STATEMENT THAT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE ON THIS DISTURBANCE. REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL
WATERS FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FZPQ52 PGUM FOR DETAILS ON EXPECTED
WEATHER FOR KOROR PALAU AND YAP.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[dexterlabio]

convection is diminishing and it doesn't look good right now. though there is some good rotation and outflow. I just don't know why JTWC says it looks more like an open trough than a closed low pressure system. Looks like they're cancelling the TCFA later on. would be a good news if delayed development goes on and probably staying weak if it is to cross Philippines this coming week.

[ManilaTC]

TCFA has been cancelled.

WTPN22 PGTW 302300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/292251Z JUN 12//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN22 PGTW 292300). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.4N 138.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR
7.9N 133.1E, APPROXIMATELY 95 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PALAU.

ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING BROADLY INTO THE CENTER. MSI ALSO SHOWS NO CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE LLCC ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A LARGE EAST-WEST ORIENTED LINE OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH, WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL (STRAIGHT-LINE) CONVERGENCE. A 302047Z SSMIS 37H GHZ IMAGE ALSO CONFIRMS A WEAK BUT DISCERNIBLE LLCC.

OVER THE PAST 09 HOURS, THE SYSTEM TRACKED OVER PALAU PRODUCING ONLY LIGHT WINDS (LESS THAN 10 KNOTS) WITH A MINIMUM SLP OF 1006 MB. ADDITIONALLY, THE 30/12Z SOUNDING INDICATED ONLY 05-10 KNOT SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOW-LEVELS. THE 301454Z OSCAT IMAGE INDICATED A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 10-15 KNOT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW.

RECENT DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS WITHIN THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.

THE SYSTEM IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.//

[mrbagyo]

i think its not yet done..lets see what will happen next

[dexterlabio]

chances would be low for development if it nears land quickly without organization. what i think would be probable is a TC formation once it is off the waters west of Luzon. sure thing is that it is gonna dump some rains across PI.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data.

[ManilaTC]

REGENERATING...

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.2N
126.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 126.3E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL, IMPROVED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH INCREASED DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 011920Z SSMI MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING INTO THE LLCC. A SHIP
OBSERVATION 25 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IS REPORTING 1004 MB WITH
05 KNOTS OF WIND. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS
RECENTLY WEAKENED AND ALLOWED CONVECTION TO BUILD OVER THE CENTER.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO
THE IMPROVED LLCC AND ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION, BUT VICINITY TO
LAND, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[mrbagyo]

reminds me of xangsane back in 2006, look at the movement of this weak system..lets see what will happen when its in the seas of romblon..might still develop if it survives and reemerges in the west philippine sea.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Call this the little invest that could.. Well maybe not, but it really has been holding in there for quite sometime.

[euro6208]

TXPQ22 KNES 020910
TCSWNP

A. NAME (96W)

B. 02/0832Z

C. 13.1N

D. 125.8E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS... 3/10 BANDING FOR DT=1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


i can't believe this isn't a tropical cyclone. if this was in the western hemisphere, it would probrably be a tropical depression or storm...























The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

[oaba09]

"Serious floods threaten Metro Manila, parts of Luzon"

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/metro ... a-cavite-0

[oaba09]

The rain has been continuous since last night

There have been reports of flooding in parts of metro manila

Classes have already been suspended in some schools

[Typhoon Hunter]

Thanks for the updates guys, stay safe! It certainly looks like a very healthy invest to me now, despite being over land.

[dhoeze]

just sharing...

Flooded roads:

Manila:

Rizal cor Recto – Gutter deep
Tayuman A. Rivera – Gutter deep
Quiapo Ilalim – Not passable to light vehicles
Lagusnilad – Gutter deep
M. Lopez SM Manila – Gutter deep
Romualdez Ayala – Gutter deep

Quezon City:

V. Luna – Chest deep

Makati City:

Brgy Tejeros – Not passable



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[oaba09]

just sharing...

Flooded roads:

Manila:

Rizal cor Recto – Gutter deep
Tayuman A. Rivera – Gutter deep
Quiapo Ilalim – Not passable to light vehicles
Lagusnilad – Gutter deep
M. Lopez SM Manila – Gutter deep
Romualdez Ayala – Gutter deep

Quezon City:

V. Luna – Chest deep

Makati City:

Brgy Tejeros – Not passable

Hi,
can you post regular updates on the flood situation. I can't access the MMDA facebook and twitter page here in the office.

Thanks!