CPAC: DANIEL - Post-Tropical
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- cycloneye
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CPAC: DANIEL - Post-Tropical
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep962012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201207021125
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 96, 2012, DB, O, 2012070212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP962012
EP, 96, 2012070112, , BEST, 0, 90N, 955W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2012070118, , BEST, 0, 93N, 970W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2012070200, , BEST, 0, 96N, 984W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2012070206, , BEST, 0, 98N, 991W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2012070212, , BEST, 0, 99N, 997W, 20, 1009, DB
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 2 2012
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep962012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201207021125
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 96, 2012, DB, O, 2012070212, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP962012
EP, 96, 2012070112, , BEST, 0, 90N, 955W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2012070118, , BEST, 0, 93N, 970W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2012070200, , BEST, 0, 96N, 984W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2012070206, , BEST, 0, 98N, 991W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2012070212, , BEST, 0, 99N, 997W, 20, 1009, DB
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUL 2 2012
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E
WHXX01 KMIA 021127
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1127 UTC MON JUL 2 2012
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962012) 20120702 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120702 1200 120703 0000 120703 1200 120704 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.9N 99.7W 10.7N 101.8W 11.4N 103.9W 12.0N 106.0W
BAMD 9.9N 99.7W 10.2N 101.4W 10.3N 103.2W 10.4N 104.9W
BAMM 9.9N 99.7W 10.4N 101.6W 10.7N 103.5W 11.0N 105.4W
LBAR 9.9N 99.7W 10.6N 101.8W 11.4N 104.2W 12.1N 106.7W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120704 1200 120705 1200 120706 1200 120707 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.8N 108.0W 13.9N 111.5W 14.3N 115.3W 14.1N 119.3W
BAMD 10.6N 106.6W 11.1N 110.3W 11.5N 114.2W 11.9N 118.1W
BAMM 11.3N 107.3W 12.1N 111.0W 12.4N 115.1W 12.5N 119.4W
LBAR 12.9N 109.2W 14.6N 114.1W 15.5N 118.9W 14.4N 122.3W
SHIP 47KTS 58KTS 65KTS 70KTS
DSHP 47KTS 58KTS 65KTS 70KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.9N LONCUR = 99.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 9.6N LONM12 = 98.4W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 9.0N LONM24 = 95.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1127 UTC MON JUL 2 2012
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962012) 20120702 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120702 1200 120703 0000 120703 1200 120704 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.9N 99.7W 10.7N 101.8W 11.4N 103.9W 12.0N 106.0W
BAMD 9.9N 99.7W 10.2N 101.4W 10.3N 103.2W 10.4N 104.9W
BAMM 9.9N 99.7W 10.4N 101.6W 10.7N 103.5W 11.0N 105.4W
LBAR 9.9N 99.7W 10.6N 101.8W 11.4N 104.2W 12.1N 106.7W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120704 1200 120705 1200 120706 1200 120707 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.8N 108.0W 13.9N 111.5W 14.3N 115.3W 14.1N 119.3W
BAMD 10.6N 106.6W 11.1N 110.3W 11.5N 114.2W 11.9N 118.1W
BAMM 11.3N 107.3W 12.1N 111.0W 12.4N 115.1W 12.5N 119.4W
LBAR 12.9N 109.2W 14.6N 114.1W 15.5N 118.9W 14.4N 122.3W
SHIP 47KTS 58KTS 65KTS 70KTS
DSHP 47KTS 58KTS 65KTS 70KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.9N LONCUR = 99.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 9.6N LONM12 = 98.4W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 9.0N LONM24 = 95.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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Seems highly likely this will be our next system in the EPAC, though if the models are right something bigger is waiting a little down the line.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E
Up to 30%
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUL 2 2012
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE NEAR THE CENTER AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUL 2 2012
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE NEAR THE CENTER AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E
The shear appears to not be a impediment for this system to develop into a strong system down the road.
SHEAR (KT) 9 9 11 13 14 12 13 11 10 11 10 9 9
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/12070 ... _ships.txt
SHEAR (KT) 9 9 11 13 14 12 13 11 10 11 10 9 9
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/12070 ... _ships.txt
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E
No change.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUL 2 2012
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON JUL 2 2012
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E
00z Best Track
EP, 96, 2012070300, , BEST, 0, 97N, 997W, 25, 1007, LO
http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest
EP, 96, 2012070300, , BEST, 0, 97N, 997W, 25, 1007, LO
http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest
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2AM EDT/11PM PDT: Still at 30%
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON JUL 2 2012
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON JUL 2 2012
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E
Up to 50%.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE JUL 3 2012
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER THIS
MORNING...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE JUL 3 2012
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER THIS
MORNING...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E
most likely this will be a weak depression or storm but a stronger storm (hurricane) is forecast to develop in the future....
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E
Up to 80%
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUL 3 2012
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUL 3 2012
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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