Off the coast of Costa Rica (EPAC) (Is Invest 97E)

[Extratropical94]

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE
COAST OF COSTA RICA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

[Kingarabian]

I think this is the possible storm that the models are talking about.

00z GFS has this tracking towards the Hawaiian Islands in 384H ... but that is la la la la land.

Same with the 00z Euro but it's faster @ 240 hours.

[cycloneye]

Up to 20%.

A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER COSTA RICA THAT
EXTENDS WESTWARD OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10
MPH.

[cycloneye]

11 AM PDT:

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF EL
SALVADOR IS PRODUCING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
OVER MOST OF THE FAR EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN...INCLUDING THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.

[cycloneye]

From this evening's discussion:


THE MONSOON TROUGH IS VERY ACTIVE E OF 95W AS A RESULT OF A
COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN A TROPICAL WAVE...THE TOPOGRAPHY OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS
STILL E OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THUS FAR THE INTERACTION HAS
BEEN MAINLY SEEN THROUGH AN INCREASE IN THE PAPAGAYO JET AND AN
INCREASE THE HORIZONTAL EXTENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. BASED ON
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT DAY...A MORE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH.
MODELS DEPICT THAT THIS WILL HELP DEVELOP A TIGHTER SURFACE
CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS SURFACE
CIRCULATION WILL THEN DRIFT WESTWARD WITH THE BACKGROUND
ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT. IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO CONTINUE WATCHING THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

[cycloneye]

5 PM PDT:

DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDS SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES WEST OF COSTA RICA OVER THE FAR EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
OCEAN. ONLY SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

5 AM PDT:

AN ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS
DISORGANIZED OVER THE FAR EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC OFF OF THE COAST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA. ONLY GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10
MPH.

[cycloneye]

11 AM PDT:

AN ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS
DISORGANIZED OVER THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC OFF OF THE COAST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

[cycloneye]

5 AM PDT-30%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI JUL 6 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DANIEL...LOCATED ABOUT 640 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

Is invest 97E so the thread is locked.