EPAC: EMILIA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep972012.invest
FSTDA
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201207061152
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INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 97, 2012, DB, O, 2012070606, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP972012
EP, 97, 2012070512, , BEST, 0, 82N, 890W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 97, 2012070518, , BEST, 0, 83N, 906W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 97, 2012070600, , BEST, 0, 84N, 920W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 97, 2012070606, , BEST, 0, 85N, 935W, 25, 1009, DB

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

Thread that was the topic at Talking Tropics forum for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=61&p=2238546#p2238546

[cycloneye]

First plots by the Tropical models have a formidable hurricane down the road,but it will be a fish.

WHXX01 KMIA 061154
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1154 UTC FRI JUL 6 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP972012) 20120706 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120706 0600 120706 1800 120707 0600 120707 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 8.5N 93.5W 8.9N 95.3W 9.2N 97.3W 9.6N 99.9W
BAMD 8.5N 93.5W 8.8N 95.4W 9.3N 97.4W 9.9N 99.6W
BAMM 8.5N 93.5W 8.8N 95.7W 9.1N 97.9W 9.6N 100.2W
LBAR 8.5N 93.5W 8.7N 95.8W 9.1N 98.6W 9.5N 101.4W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 43KTS 54KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 43KTS 54KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120708 0600 120709 0600 120710 0600 120711 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.5N 102.6W 12.5N 108.4W 14.2N 113.3W 15.1N 117.5W
BAMD 10.8N 102.0W 13.1N 106.7W 15.9N 110.7W 18.9N 115.2W
BAMM 10.4N 102.9W 12.5N 108.2W 14.1N 112.8W 15.3N 117.3W
LBAR 10.2N 104.4W 12.2N 110.4W 13.6N 113.9W 15.0N 116.1W
SHIP 61KTS 75KTS 81KTS 83KTS
DSHP 61KTS 75KTS 81KTS 83KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.5N LONCUR = 93.5W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 8.3N LONM12 = 90.6W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 8.0N LONM24 = 86.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

Looking good.

[cycloneye]

Up to 50%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI JUL 6 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DANIEL...LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC HAS BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE

[Yellow Evan]

It's getting there. Wont be surprised to see a TD on the weekend, if not on Monday.

[senorpepr]

WTPN21 PGTW 062000
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
190 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.0N 95.2W TO 10.9N 102.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 061930Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.3N 96.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 072000Z.
//

[MGC]

Looking good..has that tumbleweed look to it....is this disturbance the former 97L?......MGC

[cycloneye]

From 22:05 UTC discussion:

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUL 06 2012

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...


LOW PRESSURE 1006 MB NEAR 09N95W IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON
TROUGH. THUS FAR...THIS HAS BEEN AN EXCELLENT EXAMPLE OF THE
COMPLEX INTERACTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WITH THE TOPOGRAPHY OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE MONSOON TROUGH TOWARD A POTENTIAL
TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS EVENT IN THE EPAC. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH. AN ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTION TO CYCLOGENESIS IN
THIS CASE WOULD BE THE BREAKDOWN OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO ENABLE
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA TO FURTHER DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE
FOR THIS TO HAPPEN. WITH THAT IN MIND...THE LATEST FORECAST FROM
NHC GIVES THE SYSTEM A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

Up to 60%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI JUL 6 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DANIEL...LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE CHANGED LITTLE
IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION
IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR THE LOW TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Yellow Evan]

Anyone here think this could be major?

[cycloneye]

If you want to see a major (Almost) from 97E you have to cheer GFDL.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

EP, 97, 2012070700, , BEST, 0, 100N, 972W, 25, 1006, DB

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow: If you want to see a major (Almost) from 97E you have to cheer GFDL.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Well, I love the GFDl as a whole.

[Cyclenall]

In the last 6 hours, 97E has really gained convection and its formation process is becoming rapid (despite the messily appearance). Rainbands are spontaneously forming and convection is rotating with it in a microcane like fashion. This thing could really take off like a rocket now.

[cycloneye]

Cyclenall,I agree with the taking off. But they say TD in a day ot two,I say later today.

Up to 80%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT JUL 7 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DANIEL...LOCATED ABOUT 785 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE INCREASED AND
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track.

97, 2012070712, , BEST, 0, 90N, 995W, 25, 1006, LO

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[Yellow Evan]

Will be held at 80% at 11 IMO.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Impressive organization in a fast pace.

[cycloneye]

Up to near 100%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT JUL 7 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DANIEL...LOCATED ABOUT 820 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES
SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES... ADVISORIES
WILL BE INITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Yellow Evan]

Wow, looks like I was wrong.