EPAC: EMILIA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

From the 18z SHIP run,the RI probability increases.

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 67% is 5.7 times the sample mean(11.7%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 42% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 29% is 5.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 26% is 7.1 times the sample mean( 3.9%)

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/12070 ... _ships.txt

[Yellow Evan]

Not too bad for an invest.

[brunota2003]

With those numbers, we might see RI almost right out of the gate with this one...I am on leave btw, and will be mostly out of the loop.

[cycloneye]

97E has been renumbered

EP, 05, 2012070718, , BEST, 0, 97N, 1009W, 30, 1005,TD

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[Yellow Evan]

Yay! 5-E is here.

[Kingarabian]

This one will be exciting.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

From the 18z SHIP run,the RI probability increases.

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 67% is 5.7 times the sample mean(11.7%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 42% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 29% is 5.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 26% is 7.1 times the sample mean( 3.9%)

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/12070 ... _ships.txt

That's insane, even for a fully-developed tropical cyclone. I've never seen probabilities so high.

[Yellow Evan]

What were Rick's SHIP RI chances when it formed?

[cycloneye]

WTPZ25 KNHC 072031
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
2100 UTC SAT JUL 07 2012


TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 101.6W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 101.6W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 100.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 10.4N 103.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 11.1N 106.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 11.8N 108.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 12.5N 110.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 13.7N 114.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 15.0N 118.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 16.0N 121.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.9N 101.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[CobraStrike]

Hmm.. 85kt peak by NHC. I was thinking along the same lines.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ45 KNHC 072031
TCDEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 07 2012

BANDING FEATURES HAVE BEEN INCREASING NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE
CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF MEXICO. VISIBLE IMAGES ALSO INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. THUS...THE LOW IS NOW BEING
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND GIVEN AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KT BASED ON A T2.0 FROM TAFB.

THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE DEPRESSION IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING WITH VERY WARM SSTS AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...WITH THE SHIPS
INDEX INDICATING A 42 PERCENT CHANCE OF THAT OCCURRING. IT IS
PUZZLING WHY THE GFDL/HWRF DO NOT SHOW MUCH STRENGTHENING WITH THIS
CYCLONE GIVEN SUCH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND THE NHC FORECAST
IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE AND THE
SHIPS MODEL. COOLER WATERS SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND IN ABOUT
FIVE DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/13. A LARGE RIDGE OVER MEXICO
AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD STEER THE DEPRESSION GENERALLY
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN A FEW
DAYS TIME...SOME OF THE MODELS WEAKEN THE RIDGE AROUND 115W...WHICH
COULD RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT SLOWER AND MORE POLEWARD MOTION OF THE
CYCLONE. THE MODEL SPREAD IS FAIRLY LARGE AT LONG RANGE...AND THUS
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE TRACK MODEL
CONSENSUS...TVCN.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 9.9N 101.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 10.4N 103.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 11.1N 106.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 11.8N 108.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 12.5N 110.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 13.7N 114.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 15.0N 118.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 16.0N 121.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Yellow Evan]

NHC forecast a little more conservative than I thought. Should be an interesting system though.

[CobraStrike]

What were Rick's SHIP RI chances when it formed?

Hurricane Rick's RI chances were as follows (higher than 05E):

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 78% is 6.8 times the sample mean(11.5%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 71% is 9.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 66% is 12.6 times the sample mean( 5.2%)

[Kingarabian]

NHC forecast a little more conservative than I thought. Should be an interesting system though.

Yeah because the GFDL/HWRF don't blow it up.

[KWT]

I personally think this sstem has the legs to become a major hurricane, but we'll have to wait and see!

[CrazyC83]

I agree, this has major written all over it.

[Yellow Evan]

What were Rick's SHIP RI chances when it formed?

Hurricane Rick's RI chances were as follows (higher than 05E):

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 78% is 6.8 times the sample mean(11.5%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 71% is 9.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 66% is 12.6 times the sample mean( 5.2%)

Oh, so 5E is not a Rick.

[cycloneye]

SSD dvorak update mantains as TD.

07/2345 UTC 10.4N 102.5W T2.0/2.0 05E -- East Pacific

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Emilia almost certain on next advisory

EP, 05, 2012070800, , BEST, 0, 105N, 1025W, 35, 1003, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[cycloneye]

The 00z SHIP intensity almost goes to cat 3.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KMIA 080018
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0018 UTC SUN JUL 8 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE (EP052012) 20120708 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120708  0000   120708  1200   120709  0000   120709  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    10.5N 102.5W   11.4N 105.1W   12.3N 107.7W   13.2N 110.2W
BAMD    10.5N 102.5W   11.3N 104.9W   12.4N 107.2W   13.4N 109.4W
BAMM    10.5N 102.5W   11.3N 104.9W   12.3N 107.3W   13.2N 109.6W
LBAR    10.5N 102.5W   11.4N 105.1W   12.5N 108.1W   13.6N 111.2W
SHIP        35KTS          46KTS          60KTS          72KTS
DSHP        35KTS          46KTS          60KTS          72KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120710  0000   120711  0000   120712  0000   120713  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.8N 112.3W   14.7N 115.4W   16.6N 118.5W   18.5N 123.0W
BAMD    14.5N 111.5W   16.3N 115.6W   18.0N 120.0W   19.1N 125.8W
BAMM    14.2N 111.7W   15.6N 115.5W   17.0N 119.3W   18.3N 124.2W
LBAR    14.5N 114.0W   16.2N 118.9W   16.4N 121.2W   17.7N 123.9W
SHIP        85KTS          97KTS          92KTS          86KTS
DSHP        85KTS          97KTS          92KTS          86KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  10.5N LONCUR = 102.5W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR =  14KT
LATM12 =   9.1N LONM12 =  99.8W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 =  13KT
LATM24 =   8.6N LONM24 =  97.2W
WNDCUR =   35KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =   40NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =  30NM