CPAC: DANIEL - Post-Tropical

[Cyclenall]

As Daniel entered the environment with lower SST, weak vertical wind shear, and is now losing its rainband, it may become an annular hurricane.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I was thinking that but I didn't want to say the A-word. Its in prime environment for that sort of thing to occur. Its looking smaller and smaller...becoming a microcane? Creating its own environment is also possible here.

Damn guys Daniel did it. Wow.

Yellow's reaction will be interesting. They were convinced last night it had finally peaked. Someone early in this thread asked if anyone else thought this could become a major...it wasn't within the scope but very early on I thought there was a chance. We all posted the advisory nearly at once but I just got in by a minute, sorry .

With this amazing news, that means that Daniel is the 2nd major hurricane (3rd IMO because I think Hurricane Carlotta was one but we'll see if its upgraded) of the Epac season and 3rd in a row to attain major status once Carlotta is added (hopefully). If Emilia becomes a major too (I thought she had a better chance...much better!) than that would be 3 or 4 majors in a row!! BTW, I think Hurricane Carlotta looks better than Daniel does now.

More interesting, this Daniel is now the 3rd Daniel in a row to become a major hurricane! 2000, 2006, and 2012 Daniels all did it. Furthermore, the last two were also Annular hurricanes that went over into the Cpac!!!! So freaky.

Well, that makes this the 5th time I thought the NHC would lower or keep Daniel at said intensity . I have also noticed that the NRL is not reflecting the future intensities the NHC puts out during the last day now.

IT IS SOMEWHAT
SUPRISING THAT DANIEL IS STILL GAINING STRENGTH AS THE EYE HAS
CROSSED THE 26C ISOTHERM. I CAN ONLY ASSUME THAT THE HURRICANE HAS
REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AS THESE LOW WATER TEMPERATURES
TYPICALLY CAUSE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO LESSEN...RESULTING IN A
DECREASE IN THE WIND SPEED.

Going into the basics here, low SSTs should cause thunderstorm activity to lessen . If this fails, we have another Epsilon and Zeta .

THE 34-KT AND 50-KT WIND RADII WERE MODIFIED BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS
AT 0554 UTC. THIS SCATTEROMETER PASS CONFIRMED THE COMPACT WIND
FIELD OF DANIEL.

Same hurricane windfield as Hurricane Wilma (15 miles).

[Kingarabian]

Really becoming compact now.

Daniel of 2006:


Flossie of 2007:


Flossie and Danny all defied cool SST's. Though they fell victim to shear.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Wow, this storm really surprised me. The original forecast had this only becoming a weak TS if I'm not mistaken.

[brunota2003]

Wow...congrats to Daniel! Way to beat out the odds

[Kingarabian]

Good night guys. Who knows how Daniel look like... weakened our stronger.

Aaaah

[Yellow Evan]

Holy crap. I wake up and Daniel is a major hurricane! This is unbelievable. I knew it would become a major, I knew it. Daniel 2012 is just like it's 2006 version right now. Dare I say it is annular.

[cycloneye]

Down to 95kts on 12z Best Track.

EP, 04, 2012070812, , BEST, 0, 151N, 1231W, 95, 965, HU

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[RL3AO]

The white/CMG band around the eye has gone but a new burst of CMG convection in the eastern eyewall has just happened. Lets see if it can wrap around and intensify a bit more.

Not annular now but wouldn't shock me if it keeps picking up some characteristics.

[Yellow Evan]

Down to 95kts on 12z Best Track.

EP, 04, 2012070812, , BEST, 0, 151N, 1231W, 95, 965, HU

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

Maybe the storm finally peaked for real, but I doubt it. Watch it intensify further all of a sudden (again).

[cycloneye]

Down to 90kts.


HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 08 2012

THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT AND THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE AT 90 KT...AND
THIS IS USED FOR THE ADVISORY WIND SPEED. SINCE DANIEL WILL BE
TRAVERSING COOLER WATERS AND MOVING THROUGH A MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM AND INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE MOTION CONTINUES WESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE...275/12.
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. A WELL-ESTABLISHED DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD FORCE A CONTINUED
WESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 15.1N 123.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 15.3N 125.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 15.6N 128.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 15.9N 131.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 16.0N 134.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 16.0N 140.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 16.0N 146.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 16.0N 152.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Yellow Evan]

Yeah, I am pretty sure it peaked for real.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Daniel became a major hurricane last night?

This is my favorite storm so far this year. Thinking Emilia will eclipse that though.

Daniel at peak. Was probably around 120-125 mph.

[Yellow Evan]

Daniel became a major hurricane last night?

This is my favorite storm so far this year. Thinking Emilia will eclipse that though.

Daniel at peak. Was probably around 120-125 mph.

Hmm, reminds me of Max 87 a bit during its RI phase.

[euro6208]

...DANIEL STILL STRENGTHENING...NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE...

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 080850
TCDEP4

HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 08 2012

DANIEL HAS STRENGTHENED SOME MORE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.
GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD TOPS
SURROUNDING THE EYE HAVE COOLED TO NEAR -75C AND THE EYE HAS BECOME
MORE DISTINCT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. BASED ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED
TO 100 KT...MAKING DANIEL A MAJOR HURRICANE. IT IS SOMEWHAT
SUPRISING THAT DANIEL IS STILL GAINING STRENGTH AS THE EYE HAS
CROSSED THE 26C ISOTHERM. I CAN ONLY ASSUME THAT THE HURRICANE HAS
REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AS THESE LOW WATER TEMPERATURES
TYPICALLY CAUSE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO LESSEN...RESULTING IN A
DECREASE IN THE WIND SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND
OF THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS AND SHOWS DANIEL STEADILY WEAKENING
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT MOVES OVER EVEN COOLER WATER
AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 5
DAYS AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A TAD SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE 34-KT AND 50-KT WIND RADII WERE MODIFIED BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS
AT 0554 UTC. THIS SCATTEROMETER PASS CONFIRMED THE COMPACT WIND
FIELD OF DANIEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 15.1N 122.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 15.3N 124.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 15.7N 126.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 15.9N 129.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 16.1N 132.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 16.2N 138.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 16.2N 144.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 16.0N 150.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

HOLY ****!!!!!!!! This is UNBELIEVAIBLE!

hmm daniel reached major hurricane strength of 100 knots, not surprising since we are likely in an el nino event...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

...DANIEL STILL STRENGTHENING...NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE...

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 080850
TCDEP4

HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 08 2012

DANIEL HAS STRENGTHENED SOME MORE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.
GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD TOPS
SURROUNDING THE EYE HAVE COOLED TO NEAR -75C AND THE EYE HAS BECOME
MORE DISTINCT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. BASED ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED
TO 100 KT...MAKING DANIEL A MAJOR HURRICANE. IT IS SOMEWHAT
SUPRISING THAT DANIEL IS STILL GAINING STRENGTH AS THE EYE HAS
CROSSED THE 26C ISOTHERM. I CAN ONLY ASSUME THAT THE HURRICANE HAS
REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AS THESE LOW WATER TEMPERATURES
TYPICALLY CAUSE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO LESSEN...RESULTING IN A
DECREASE IN THE WIND SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND
OF THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS AND SHOWS DANIEL STEADILY WEAKENING
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT MOVES OVER EVEN COOLER WATER
AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 5
DAYS AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A TAD SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE 34-KT AND 50-KT WIND RADII WERE MODIFIED BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS
AT 0554 UTC. THIS SCATTEROMETER PASS CONFIRMED THE COMPACT WIND
FIELD OF DANIEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 15.1N 122.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 15.3N 124.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 15.7N 126.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 15.9N 129.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 16.1N 132.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 16.2N 138.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 16.2N 144.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 16.0N 150.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

HOLY ****!!!!!!!! This is UNBELIEVAIBLE!

hmm daniel reached major hurricane strength of 100 knots, not surprising since we are likely in an el nino event...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It is IMO given the marginally favorable environment Daniel is in. With that said, average MH's in a year is 4.

[Meow]

Daniel looks so tiny now, showing some characteristics of an annular hurricane.

[Yellow Evan]

Wow, Daniel still looks amazing.

[Yellow Evan]

Daniel looks so tiny now, showing some characteristics of an annular hurricane.

I still see a few rainbands, but otherwise, it is very close to an annular hurricanes

[cycloneye]

Still hanging on to the 90kts on the 18z Best Track.

EP, 04, 2012070818, , BEST, 0, 151N, 1244W, 90, 970, HU

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[Yellow Evan]

Not surprised. Daniel is not done yet.