EPAC: EMILIA - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Damn, wow it looks spectacular! I'm off the Daniel train and jumping on this one.

[cycloneye]

Amazing is the word to describe this.

[Yellow Evan]

Damn, wow it looks spectacular! I'm off the Daniel train and jumping on this one.

Welcome on board to the Emilia train.



Looks like a major too me.

[cycloneye]

SSD Dvorak gives Emilia 5.0/5.0.

09/1800 UTC 12.8N 110.5W T5.0/5.0 EMILIA -- East Pacific

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track up to 95kts

They also increased the prior 12z up to 90kts from the 85 it was earlier.

EP, 05, 2012070918, , BEST, 0, 128N, 1105W, 95, 969, HU

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[Kingarabian]

Eye has recently become clouded. Lets see if it can clear out.

[Yellow Evan]

18z Best Track up to 95kts

EP, 05, 2012070918, , BEST, 0, 128N, 1105W, 95, 969, HU

I'm not surprised, but I will not be shocked to see it at 100 knts by 21z either.

[Yellow Evan]

Eye has recently become clouded.

Still looks very good IMO.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

It tried to intensify a little too fast earlier and dry air got ingested as a result. It should gradually become mixed out.

[Yellow Evan]

It tried to intensify a little too fast earlier and dry air got ingested as a result. It should gradually become mixed out.

How can a storm intensify too fast?

[Kingarabian]

Needs that red convection belt to wrap around its eye if it wants to go places.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

UW-CIMSS ADT is up to T5.5/102 knots.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 JUL 2012 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 12:55:25 N Lon : 110:32:02 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 960.6mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.6 5.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 10 km

Center Temp : -27.3C Cloud Region Temp : -66.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 62km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 32.0 degrees

****************************************************

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

The fast rate that occured this morning has stopped and now it looks like a slower intensification proccess going on.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

This should be declared as a major hurricane at 2PM PDT. UW-CIMSS Final CI# is up to 5.6/120 mph, with Adjusted and Raw T# up to 6.0/132 mph.

[Cyclenall]

Hurricane Daniel (85 mph), Hurricane Emilia (100 mph), and a disturbance that doesn't have a yellow circle for an unknown reason.

That last part really was funny, made me lol . Its now circled yellow as expected. That one will be future Fabio according to the GFS.

I'm reading posts talking about whether an ERC will occur soon, where did this idea sprout from? When has a newly formed eye ever started an ERC just a couple hours after not even becoming stable? The answer is never. Once it becomes stable typically 24 hours later the risk increases for one to occur with 36 hours being more common. I've also noticed the Epac has less of them, maybe major hurricanes last less then in the Atlantic reducing the frequency.

Needs that red convection belt to wrap around its eye if it wants to go places.

This is the best statement of the day.

Latest:



I liked it better when Emilia looked like this:



Now it has a spiral config that can't make up its mind .

[Yellow Evan]

This should be declared as a major hurricane at 2PM PDT. UW-CIMSS Final CI# is up to 5.6/120 mph, with Adjusted and Raw T# up to 6.0/132 mph.

The NHC likes to go 5-10 knots lower than Raw and CIMSS data, which is 95-100 knts. I'd say it is 50/50 of becoming in a Cat 3 at 21z.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Up, Up, Up.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 JUL 2012 Time : 193000 UTC
Lat : 12:58:00 N Lon : 110:54:20 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 956.4mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 6.2 6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : +10.4C Cloud Region Temp : -66.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 62km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.7 degrees

****************************************************

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
200 PM PDT MON JUL 09 2012

AFTER A VERY RAPID INTENSIFICATION EPISODE EARLIER TODAY...EMILIA
HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT AT A
SOMEWHAT SLOWER RATE. USING A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
DVORAK VALUES...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 95 KT...PUTTING
EMILIA ON THE CUSP OF MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. AN SSMIS IMAGE FROM
SEVERAL HOURS AGO SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED EYEWALL IN MICROWAVE
IMAGERY WITH AN ESTIMATED EYE DIAMETER OF 20 N MI. THE SHIPS-RI
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITY OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ABOVE THE EXPLICIT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS...OWING TO THE RI PROBABILITIES...AND IS CLOSE TO THE
GFDL MODEL THEREAFTER. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE INTENSITY WILL
LEVEL OFF AND PROBABLY DECREASE SOMEWHAT WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO
DUE TO AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR INTENSE
HURRICANES.

THE EYE HAS BEEN WOBBLING A BIT TODAY BUT SMOOTHING THROUGH THE
SHORTER-TERM MOTION FLUCTUATIONS LEADS TO A MOTION ESTIMATE OF
295/11. THERE CONTINUES TO BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC
REASONING BEHIND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST. EMILIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY THE FLOW ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE
OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO BE
MAINTAINED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A MORE WESTWARD TURN
INDICATED BY THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LIES SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LATEST GFS TRACK AND IS CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 13.1N 111.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 13.5N 112.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 14.0N 114.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 14.5N 116.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 15.0N 118.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 16.0N 121.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 17.0N 126.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 17.5N 131.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Yellow Evan]

Eye looks better now IMO.