EPAC: EMILIA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track back to Major Hurricane at 100kts

EP, 05, 2012071118, , BEST, 0, 147N, 1178W, 100, 960, HU,

She has resiliance to keep going.

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[Kingarabian]

SAB and TAFB at T5.5/105 knots.

11/1800 UTC 14.7N 117.7W T5.5/5.5 EMILIA -- East Pacific

Dvorak agrees:

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1/1800 UTC   14.7N    117.7W       T5.5/5.5         EMILIA -- East Pacific 

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

SAB and TAFB at T5.5/105 knots.

11/1800 UTC 14.7N 117.7W T5.5/5.5 EMILIA -- East Pacific

Dvorak agrees:

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1/1800 UTC   14.7N    117.7W       T5.5/5.5         EMILIA -- East Pacific 

You just posted the exact same thing I did, lol.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

100 knots is being conservative.

[Kingarabian]

SAB and TAFB at T5.5/105 knots.

11/1800 UTC 14.7N 117.7W T5.5/5.5 EMILIA -- East Pacific

Dvorak agrees:

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1/1800 UTC   14.7N    117.7W       T5.5/5.5         EMILIA -- East Pacific 

You just posted the exact same thing I did, lol.

Oh really? I thought they were all from different organizations or something... My apologies.

[Kingarabian]

AMSU estimates up to 103kts.

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 -----------------------------------------------------------------
 | Estimated MSLP:                        953 hPa
 | Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind:     103 kts
 | Estimate Confidence:                  Good ( +/- 9mb  +/- 10kts )
 -----------------------------------------------------------------

[Fyzn94]

To me it looks like it's become.....you know.....

[Cyclenall]

I have a very good feeling that Emilia will break with most systems in this area and reach the 50th state. Bank on it!

I certainly wouldn't bank on it, I'd do the opposite! Unless it becomes fully Annular and dips to the south, its highly unlikely it would even survive. Your point about Hawaii being due (which I think your referring to "Equilibrium" which is what I call it but the two concepts aren't exactly the same) doesn't mean anything here because climatology shows these systems almost always fading to remnants before then.

if this was in the wpac it would likely explode to a category 5...i would agree though, emilia is very dissapointing and i see in the future that emilia will be the last major until around september...

current intensity is 95 knots...

I disagree with everything in this post except the "very disappointing" part. Its very likely there will be another major hurricane in the Epac before September...its in a hyperactive pattern.

She is still well organized to look this good on microwave.

To me it looks like it's become.....you know.....

The NHC agrees that Emilia is becoming more Annular and I have to agree. Its becoming increasingly likely and the eye within the last 12 hours is inching closer to what one typically looks like. Here is the NHC Discussion from hours ago:

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 111435
TCDEP5

HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 AM PDT WED JUL 11 2012

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IT
CONSISTS OF AN EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION AND
NO BANDING FEATURES. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT
AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS. GIVEN THE CURRENT ANNULAR
STRUCTURE ON SATELLITE...EMILIA WILL PROBABLY NOT CHANGE MUCH IN
INTENSITY TODAY...BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR THE HURRICANE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE CIRCULATION STARTS TO INTERACT WITH COOLER
WATERS IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO.

THE TRACK HAS NOT CHANGED EITHER...AND EMILIA CONTINUES TO MOVE
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE
IS TRAPPED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST BY
GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST. THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL LIKELY KEEP
EMILIA MOVING ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK UNTIL THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH NO IMPORTANT CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. BECAUSE
THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WELL ESTABLISHED...THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE A WEAKENING
CYCLONE PROGRESSING WESTNORTHWESTARD AND WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND NOT TOO FAR FROM
THE PREVIOUS ONE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 14.6N 117.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 15.1N 118.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 15.5N 120.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 16.0N 122.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 16.5N 125.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 17.0N 130.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 17.5N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 17.5N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Now I do have to strongly disagree that it was 90 knots at 11:00 am EDT, it was 105-110 knots IMO and remains so currently. There was a full ring of very deep convection and the eye improved big-time since late yesterday. For the intensity to go down 5 knots when I think it went up 15 knots is...weird. "THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.", "SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT
AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS." - None of this made any sense to me, satellite intensity estimates were starting to go up quickly just before the advisory package was released and the cloud pattern did change.

[Kingarabian]

I have a very good feeling that Emilia will break with most systems in this area and reach the 50th state. Bank on it!

Now I do have to strongly disagree that it was 90 knots at 11:00 am EDT, it was 105-110 knots IMO and remains so currently. There was a full ring of very deep convection and the eye improved big-time since late yesterday. For the intensity to go down 5 knots when I think it went up 15 knots is...weird. "THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.", "SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT
AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS." - None of this made any sense to me, satellite intensity estimates were starting to go up quickly just before the advisory package was released and the cloud pattern did change.

Yeah. I thought it re strengthened into a Major Hurricane when I posted last night.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
200 PM PDT WED JUL 11 2012

EMILIA MADE A LITTLE BIT OF A COME BACK THIS AFTERNOON AND DEVELOPED
A SOLID RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A DISTINCT EYE.
CONSEQUENTLY...DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE INCREASED
AND NOW SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS. OBJECTIVE
T-NUMBERS PROBABLY LED TO A HIGHER INTENSITY EARLIER...BUT SINCE
THE TIME OF THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION THE CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED
A LITTLE BIT. THERE COULD SOME ADDITIONAL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
TODAY BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR THE HURRICANE TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS THE CIRCULATION STARTS TO INTERACT WITH COOLER WATERS IN
12 HOURS OR SO.

EMILIA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT
ABOUT 8 KNOTS...TRAPPED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. NO
IMPORTANT CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED SO
EMILIA SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD
TRACK AROUND THE RIDGE UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND MOST OF THE
MODELS HAVE A WEAKENING CYCLONE PROGRESSING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND
WESTWARD. GIVEN THAT THE STEERING FLOW IS NOT FORECAST TO
CHANGE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 14.8N 118.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 15.1N 119.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 15.7N 121.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 16.2N 124.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 16.5N 126.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 17.0N 131.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 17.5N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 17.5N 142.0W 25 KT 30 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[meteortheologist]

i understand why admin took down my earlier posts (i didnt know to place the disclaimer, etc) but i find it ironic given the recent strengthening of this system.

[Kingarabian]

Best looking weak Cat. 3 storm i've seen in my life. Man I wish we had Recon.

[Kingarabian]

[cycloneye]

Remains at 100kts on 00z Best Track.

EP, 05, 2012071200, , BEST, 0, 149N, 1186W, 100, 962, HU

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[Yellow Evan]

The pictures above do not display a 100 knt hurricane last time I checked.

[MGC]

Eye looks to be rather large...IMO that is the reason NHC has keep the winds at 100KTS despite Emilia's impressive sat appearance......MGC

[Yellow Evan]

Eye looks to be rather large...IMO that is the reason NHC has keep the winds at 100KTS despite Emilia's impressive sat appearance......MGC

I don't think the eye size has anything to do with the intensity.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 PM PDT WED JUL 11 2012

EMILIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE 25-30 N MI
EYE REMAINS QUITE DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGES. THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN SYMMETRIC UNTIL THE LAST HOUR OR TWO WHERE
CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE EASTERN EYEWALL. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FIXES...THEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
HELD AT 100 KT. THE OUTFLOW OF THE MAJOR HURRICANE IS WELL
ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT IS RESTRICTED TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO ABOUT 15 KT OF EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...BUT EMILIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SUB 26C WATERS AND
INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE BY THAT TIME. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
IS UNANIMOUS IN SHOWING A SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING TREND...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT THEME.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 8 KT ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING TO THE NORTH
OF EMILIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD
CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN WESTWARD AND GAIN SOME FORWARD SPEED. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND
VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 15.0N 119.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 15.3N 120.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 15.7N 122.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 16.1N 125.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 16.5N 127.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 17.0N 132.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 17.5N 138.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 17.5N 143.0W 25 KT 30 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[Yellow Evan]

HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 PM PDT WED JUL 11 2012

EMILIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE 25-30 N MI
EYE REMAINS QUITE DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGES. THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN SYMMETRIC UNTIL THE LAST HOUR OR TWO WHERE
CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE EASTERN EYEWALL. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FIXES...THEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
HELD AT 100 KT. THE OUTFLOW OF THE MAJOR HURRICANE IS WELL
ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT IS RESTRICTED TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO ABOUT 15 KT OF EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...BUT EMILIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SUB 26C WATERS AND
INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE BY THAT TIME. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
IS UNANIMOUS IN SHOWING A SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING TREND...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT THEME.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 8 KT ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING TO THE NORTH
OF EMILIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD
CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN WESTWARD AND GAIN SOME FORWARD SPEED. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND
VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 15.0N 119.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 15.3N 120.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 15.7N 122.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 16.1N 125.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 16.5N 127.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 17.0N 132.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 17.5N 138.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 17.5N 143.0W 25 KT 30 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

I am convinced that we will be talking Emilia for nearly another week

[Fyzn94]

I am convinced that we will be talking Emilia for nearly another week

Well, that can be expected with an annular 'cane.