Tiny Circulation ESE of Windward Islands (Is gone)

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Tiny Circulation ESE of Windward Islands (Is gone)

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 07, 2012 9:41 am

I know is a boring time as the models are quiet with nothing developing in the North Atlantic basin for the next couple of weeks. That is why I thought about making this thread about this interesting little system (7n) in the MDR area to have something to talk about at least until it dissapears. :) Afterall,this forum is named Talking Tropics. :wink:

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http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... asp#Sector 6
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Re: Tiny Circulation in Central Atlantic

#2 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 07, 2012 10:19 am

Hey folks,interesting development as TAFB adds the circulation to the 12z Surface Analysis.

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Re: Tiny Circulation in Central Atlantic

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 07, 2012 1:13 pm

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE W COAST OF AFRICA AT COAST
OF GUINEA BISSAU NEAR 13N16W...AND EXTENDS SW TO A 1012 MB LOW
AT 10N23N
AND TO 8N28W...WHERE SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM THIS
MORNING SUGGEST THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO ANOTHER 1012 MB
LOW AT 7N40W
AND TO THE COAST OF S AMERICA AT 7N58W. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST INLAND THE COAST OF GUINEA BISSAU.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 21W-25W...AND IS ALSO RELATED TO THE 1012 MB LOW.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE
WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ.
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Re: Tiny Circulations in Tropical Atlantic

#4 Postby ROCK » Sat Jul 07, 2012 1:43 pm

7n is awfully low lat....mostly likely never gets detached from the ITCZ and slams into SA...JMO.....
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Re: Tiny Circulation in Tropical Atlantic

#5 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 07, 2012 5:43 pm

So the original circulation that prompted this thread to be made remains at the 18z Surface Analysis but the other one South of CV Islands is eliminated from the Analysis. There is nothing more to look at so let's see how much time the low will remain. :)
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Re: Tiny Circulation in Tropical Atlantic

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 08, 2012 7:25 am

Interesting what is going on this morning as the "miniscular circulation" is filled with convection as you can see at the first post images. Let's see how the rest of this Sunday turns out.
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Re: Tiny Circulation in Tropical Atlantic

#7 Postby StormTracker » Sun Jul 08, 2012 11:03 am

Thanks for the excitement! If it keeps going and gains some latitude, maybe some rain for you down the road if nothing else!
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Re: Tiny Circulation in Tropical Atlantic

#8 Postby tailgater » Mon Jul 09, 2012 1:19 am

Looking better tonite, I'd be surprised if it didn't get a mention on next TWO.

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... type=flash
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Re: Tiny Circulation in Tropical Atlantic

#9 Postby abajan » Mon Jul 09, 2012 8:20 am

tailgater wrote:Looking better tonite, I'd be surprised if it didn't get a mention on next TWO.

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... type=flash

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Surprise! :lol:
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#10 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 11, 2012 5:09 pm

Well peeps, I am going to extend the life of this thread to include a new tiny low in the same position that was the original one that gave birth to the thread. :D It has been added to the 18z Surface Analysis but I know it doesn't have a promising future due to shear and the Saharan layer. So this is it. Once this low dies if it does,the thread will go down the page(s).

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Re: Tiny Circulation in Tropical Atlantic

#11 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 11, 2012 6:59 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N37W TO 9N41W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE AXIS LIES WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE IS MOSTLY VOID OF
CONVECTION N OF 11N. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 9N41W WHERE
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN
39W-43W.
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#12 Postby Gustywind » Wed Jul 11, 2012 7:03 pm

Well, Cycloneye what are the chances that this twave gave us some water in the islands :) as the severe drought continues in Guadeloupe and most of the EC islands? I mean what are the upper levels conditions expected between this twave and the islands?
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Re:

#13 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 11, 2012 7:05 pm

Gustywind wrote:Well, Cycloneye what are the chances that this twave gave us some water in the islands :) as the severe drought continues in Guadeloupe and most of the EC islands? I mean what are the upper levels conditions expected between this twave and the islands?


Upper levels are not so favorable but the wave may bring scattered showers to the Lesser Antilles by the weekend.
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Re: Re:

#14 Postby Gustywind » Wed Jul 11, 2012 7:35 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Gustywind wrote:Well, Cycloneye what are the chances that this twave gave us some water in the islands :) as the severe drought continues in Guadeloupe and most of the EC islands? I mean what are the upper levels conditions expected between this twave and the islands?


Upper levels are not so favorable but the wave may bring scattered showers to the Lesser Antilles by the weekend.

Thanks to you, so we have... again :) to be patient. Without any surprise, the SAL has for the moment inhibit most of the potentialities of the twaves even those who was pretty decent. We will see monitor the situation as usual.
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#15 Postby Gustywind » Thu Jul 12, 2012 6:41 am

000
AXNT20 KNHC 121125
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 17N40W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR
9N43W
MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
ITCZ WHILE THE N PORTION OF THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA
OF DRIER AIR AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.
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Re: Tiny Circulation in Tropical Atlantic

#16 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 12, 2012 4:02 pm

Is naked but is still there. :)

Image

In fact TAFB is still with it at the 18z Surface Analysis.

Image
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#17 Postby Gustywind » Fri Jul 13, 2012 4:49 am

000
AXNT20 KNHC 130531
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.


TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 15N46W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR
9N46W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE ITCZ. A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE HAS CAUGHT UP WITH THE WAVE
AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE W OF THE WAVE FROM
8N-12N BETWEEN 47W-50W.
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Re: Tiny Circulation in Tropical Atlantic

#18 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 13, 2012 7:15 am

From 8 AM TWD:

ROCK,it got detached. :)

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N50W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 9N48W
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SURFACE LOW HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE
ITCZ.
LOW AND WAVE REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE WAVE FROM
8N-12N BETWEEN 48W-53W.
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#19 Postby Gustywind » Fri Jul 13, 2012 8:02 am

Cycloneye is that this twave who is expected to bring a significant change to the weather this weekend?... Because of our Pro Mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe expected nice rain and even tstorms Saturday and especially Sunday. That will be good news with the pretty severe drought.
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Re:

#20 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 13, 2012 8:03 am

Gustywind wrote:Cycloneye is that this twave who is expected to bring a significant change to the weather this weekend?... Because of our Pro Mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe expected nice rain and even tstorms Saturday and especially Sunday. That will be good news with the pretty severe drought.


Yes,this is the wave. :)
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