Global model runs discussion

#3941 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jul 09, 2012 1:59 pm

2005 was certainly an anomaly all-around.

#3942 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 09, 2012 2:15 pm

The 12z package of models didn't had anything of significance in the North Atlantic for the next couple of weeks. Our friend wxman57 may be right about nothing on July but development may occur on the first week of August.

#3943 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Jul 09, 2012 3:08 pm

Cyclenall wrote:
wxman57 wrote:An active East Pacific typically signals a quiet western Atlantic season.

In September 2005, what caused both basins to be hyper at the same time? Don't say neutral conditions because that normally doesn't cause such occurrence.

My guess is a lot of tropical waves, with remnant moisture breaking up to develop in the EPAC.

Cainer · #3944 Postby **Cainer** » Mon Jul 09, 2012 5:46 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Cyclenall wrote:
wxman57 wrote:An active East Pacific typically signals a quiet western Atlantic season.

In September 2005, what caused both basins to be hyper at the same time? Don't say neutral conditions because that normally doesn't cause such occurrence.

My guess is a lot of tropical waves, with remnant moisture breaking up to develop in the EPAC.

Off topic, but I thought I'd point out that Sept 2005 in the Atlantic was only slightly above average; 5 storms formed, the same as in July and August of that year and less than in October. I believe I remember reading somewhere that the ACE for September 2006 was actually higher than that of September 2005. So I guess in a sense, the activity was more balanced out between the two basins in September than for the rest of the year, as to why, who knows. Just my two cents.

#3945 Postby **somethingfunny** » Tue Jul 10, 2012 4:16 am

2005 was below average in the Eastern Pacific. Average is 15.3/8.8/4.2 and 2005 was 15/7/2.

And September 2005 in the Atlantic had Rita...

#3946 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 10, 2012 1:25 pm

The 12z GFS of July 10th has in very long range (July 26) a weak low pressure in the Windward Islands. For sure it will change many times as the runs come by so let's see as the timeframe narrows what will it have and if other models join.

#3947 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 10, 2012 2:26 pm

12z ECMWF has a Moderate to Strong wave moving thru the NE Caribbean around the 20th of July. Again,plenty of time to see this change a lot as the runs go by.

#3948 Postby **mcheer23** » Wed Jul 11, 2012 3:49 pm

Models runs still barley showing anything..

#3949 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Jul 11, 2012 7:18 pm

Like I said after Debby - nothing more until August. Maybe the 8th.

#3950 Postby **MGC** » Wed Jul 11, 2012 8:23 pm

Still a good bit of shear in the deep tropics....along with a bunch of dry air. I don't see any development in that region for a while....outside chance something might spin up if a MCC moves off the coast and festers...but, this is just conjecture.....MGC

Of course the above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

#3951 Postby **tolakram** » Fri Jul 13, 2012 7:59 am

GFS actually has something at 120 hours now. GFS 6Z 120H ... no sure thing.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

#3952 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 13, 2012 8:08 am

Mark,look at 168 hours.

But after that it vanishes.

#3953 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 13, 2012 12:46 pm

As you said this morning Mark "no sure thing".

Nothing notable on the 12z GFS.

12z GFS Loop

#3954 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 13, 2012 2:19 pm

Well,at least there is something that can be called consistency from a model about having something and is from the ECMWF that has been showing a Moderate to Strong Wave moving theu the NE Caribbean on the 20th of July. 7 posts above this one (on the 10th of July) I posted the Euro run showing it and this Friday the 13th 12z run continues to show it.

#3955 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Jul 13, 2012 4:01 pm

Cycloneye, lets see how the Wave holds up with that nasty persistent shear in the Caribbean.

#3956 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 13, 2012 4:54 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Cycloneye, lets see how the Wave holds up with that nasty persistent shear in the Caribbean.

Agree on that. Also, it will be important to see how the Saharan Air Layer will be to overcome that.

HurricaneFan · #3957 Postby **HurricaneFan** » Fri Jul 13, 2012 5:54 pm

Is the Tropical Wave moving through the NE Caribbean on the 20th of July, shown by the ECMWF, the same Tropical Wave around 35W-40W?

#3958 Postby **mcheer23** » Fri Jul 13, 2012 7:49 pm

I will go ahead and agree with wxman with nothing till august..

#3959 Postby **Rgv20** » Fri Jul 13, 2012 9:06 pm

This is the 200HPA forecast from the CFS on 0z7/11/12 basically the green areas indicate strong convergence and the yellow area represent sinking air.....by day 25 and 30 the CFS is forecasting strong convergence in the Caribbean area by the early part of August. So I'm with wxman57 on that the next tropical cyclone could occur by the early part of August.

#3960 Postby **Ntxw** » Fri Jul 13, 2012 10:17 pm

^ Good post. It's the year of home-brews and without the MJO's help the conditions won't be favorable or get systems going. It's over the Indian Ocean in a very weakened state atm. Don't see anything out of the models worth noting in the next 7-10 days.

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