EPAC: FABIO - Post-Tropical

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Good chance Fabio will be declared a Category 2 hurricane at 2PM PDT. The structure of the storm has improved since earlier and the eye has became better defined on geostationary imagery. Not to mention the final CI# from UW-CIMSS has crossed major hurricane threshold.

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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 JUL 2012 Time : 190000 UTC
Lat : 16:08:40 N Lon : 114:45:31 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 964.0mb/ 99.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 5.8 5.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : -2.3C Cloud Region Temp : -65.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 90km
- Environmental MSLP : 1013mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 30.0 degrees

****************************************************

The storm still has a short period of time to intensify. May make it up to 105-110 mph before weakening ensues.

[brunota2003]

18Z T#s were 4.5 or 77 knots...CIMSS says 5.4 or 99 knots...given improved structure since 18Z, I think 90 knots is a good compromise at the moment. The convection is strong on the east side, but somewhat lacking on the west side, and the eye isn't clear and really well defined...so not confident enough to go any higher than 90 or maybe 95 knots atm.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Very surprised they did not upgrade.

[Cainer]

Very surprised they did not upgrade.

I was too. To my amateur eyes, I'd say Fabio is borderline Cat 3 storm, especially with raw T#'s around 5.8. With the eye starting to warm even more, I can't see the NHC maintaining it at Cat 1 status for much longer.

[Cyclenall]

Very surprised they did not upgrade.

Same here, it looks close to major hurricane status right now IMO. Eye is becoming increasingly symmetrical and clearing a bit with a more even ring of moderate convection.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

This is a 105-110 mph Category 2 hurricane. No doubt.

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CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (yyyymmddhh): 2012071420
SATCON (2mem): MSLP = 969 hPa    MSW = 94 kt
ADT: 960 hPa    105 kt    Scene: EYE
CIMSS AMSU: 972 hPa    84 kt    Bias Corr: 0 (TPC)
CIRA AMSU: NA hPa    NA kt    Tmax: NA

[cycloneye]

For the record.

HURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012

FABIO STILL HAS A RAGGED EYE...AND THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SINCE THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF THE
HURRICANE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE STEADY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BEING HELD AT 80 KT.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF FABIO IS STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE
THE HURRICANE ON A TEMPORARY WESTWARD MOTION...OR 280/9 KT. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO
DIG SOUTHEASTWARD AND HELP TO ERODE THE RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND FABIO SHOULD RESPOND BY TURNING NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN
NORTHWARD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. WHEN FABIO DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW IN
4-5 DAYS...ITS NORTHWARD MOTION IS LIKELY TO BE IMPEDED BY
NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE FORECAST HEDGES
ON THE SIDE OF THE MORE SOUTHERN ECMWF AT THAT TIME.

THE HURRICANE IS NOW OVER 26-27C WATER...AND EVEN COLDER WATER LOOMS
AHEAD. DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT NEAR FABIO...THE HURRICANE MAY ACTUALLY REACH COOLER
WATERS SOONER THAN EARLIER FORECAST GIVEN ITS RECENT WESTWARD
MOTION. GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY...AND
FABIO COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DECAY IN WINDS SHOWN BY THE SHIPS
AND LGEM MODELS...WHICH ARE IN ALMOST PERFECT AGREEMENT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 16.2N 115.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 16.6N 116.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 17.0N 118.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 17.7N 119.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 18.6N 120.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 21.0N 121.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 23.5N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1800Z 25.0N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

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UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.1.3               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  14 JUL 2012    Time :   213000 UTC
      Lat :   16:15:39 N     Lon :  115:00:59 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                5.7 / 957.8mb/107.2kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                5.7     5.9     6.0

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

 Center Temp :  -7.3C    Cloud Region Temp : -67.1C

 Scene Type : EYE 

 Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

 Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC 
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC   

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   

 C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
  - Average 34 knot radii :   90km
  - Environmental MSLP    : 1013mb

 Satellite Viewing Angle : 29.8 degrees

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Up to 90 kts.

HURRICANE FABIO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
500 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FABIO HAS STRENGTHENED CONSIDERABLY
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS BECOME MORE
CIRCULAR AND DISTINCT...AND CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYE HAVE
COOLED AND BECOME INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC. A SPECIAL DVORAK
CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY. BECAUSE OF THE RECENT STRENGTHENING...THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND WIND RADII
FORECASTS...OTHER THE ADDITION OF 64-KT RADII AT 36 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0000Z 16.4N 115.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 16.6N 116.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 17.0N 118.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 17.7N 119.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 18.6N 120.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 21.0N 121.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 23.5N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1800Z 25.0N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN

[Yellow Evan]

That was unexpected.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

That was unexpected.

Maybe for you it was, but I stated above earlier that Fabio was a 105-110 mph Category 2 hurricane.

[Macrocane]

So far the East Pacific has been far more interesting than the WPAC or the ATL. All systems since Bud have been at least cat 2.

[Fyzn94]

This is a 105-110 mph Category 2 hurricane. No doubt.

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CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (yyyymmddhh): 2012071420
SATCON (2mem): MSLP = 969 hPa    MSW = 94 kt
ADT: 960 hPa    105 kt    Scene: EYE
CIMSS AMSU: 972 hPa    84 kt    Bias Corr: 0 (TPC)
CIRA AMSU: NA hPa    NA kt    Tmax: NA

Good Observation.

[Cyclenall]

That was unexpected.

It was expected by me personally since I knew the NHC couldn't do "nothing" with that type of strengthening ongoing, 80 knots just can't fit into that. I don't know why that special discussion wasn't the actual package during 2:00 pm PDT since we all saw how better organized it was getting hours before advisory time and then commented on that 1 hour afterwards. It might be consistency issues but 80 knots at 2:00 pm PDT didn't make sense...more BT edits should follow. Considering there was no threat to land, I'm pleased the NHC did the special discussion anyways which is uncommon for non-landmass type systems. 90 knots is much closer but I personally would go a bit higher to 95 knots.

[Zanthe]

I suppose, the question now is, do we have a category three at the next advisory?

[Yellow Evan]

Any RBT data out?

[cycloneye]

Any RBT data out?

The 00z Best Track remains at 90kts.

EP, 06, 2012071500, , BEST, 0, 163N, 1154W, 90, 972, HU

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[Yellow Evan]

I am disappointed in the lack of attention Fabio is getting on here. For a Ca 2 storms that have just 4 pages, that is really low, even by EPAC standards and compared to Daniel and Emilia. Even Aletta had 8 pages. Some will argue that because EPAC storms don't affect land, they don't get attention. But the ATL storms that don't affect land and are boring would have a longer thread than Fabio's.

I will apologize for my rant above and admit I have some EPAC bias.

Anyway, does anyone here think Fabio has a shot at Cat 4 status? I don't

[Yellow Evan]

Any RBT data out?

The 00z Best Track remains at 90kts.

EP, 06, 2012071500, , BEST, 0, 163N, 1154W, 90, 972, HU

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

Not surprising since the ADV time is the same as the RBT time.

[Kingarabian]

I am disappointed in the lack of attention Fabio is getting on here. For a Ca 2 storms that have just 4 pages, that is really low, even by EPAC standards and compared to Daniel and Emilia. Even Aletta had 8 pages. Some will argue that because EPAC storms don't affect land, they don't get attention. But the ATL storms that don't affect land and are boring would have a longer thread than Fabio's.

I will apologize for my rant above and admit I have some EPAC bias.

Anyway, does anyone here think Fabio has a shot at Cat 4 status? I don't

I always check this thread, but honestly all these storms have gassed me out. Exerted a lot of time on Daniel, and then Emilia, and Fabio keeps intensifying lol sigh.

+ We have our next storm coming up in a week or so...

But I agree, it's pretty cool how atlantic storms are bombarded with the slightest development in accordance with a specific system.