Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

This discussion is made by HPC. It looks like rain will be in order for the next few days.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussion ... isc=fxca20

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
715 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2012

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. A RETROGRESSING TUTT LOW NOW CENTERS NEAR 25N 61W...ANCHORING A BROAD TROUGH TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. THIS IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS PESTERING THE USVI/PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS MORNING. PWAT IS ALSO RISING...INCREASING TO 35-40MM.

AS THE LOW/TUTT ROLLS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AND BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION. AT LOW LEVELS...THE TROUGH ALOFT
WILL SUSTAIN AN INDUCED/INVERTED TROUGH IN THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES...TO ESTABLISH ALONG 67W/68W LATER THIS EVENING/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY PULL EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. ON ITS WAKE...A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN TO PR/USVI THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...SUSTAINING PWAT OF 35-40MM AND FAVORING K INDEX VALUES
OF 30-32.

THIS TRANSLATES TO GENERALLY WET WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE GLOBAL MODELS...ALTHOUGH AGREEING ON BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...CONTINUE TO SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO PEAK AT 15-20MM. CONSIDERING THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS...WE EXPECT
CONSIDERABLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN WHAT THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THE SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW IS TO INITIALLY FAVOR ACTIVITY ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES-EASTERN PUERTO RICO...WITH CELLS QUICKLY SPREADING WEST ACROSS THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. MOST ACTIVE IS TO CLUSTER ACROSS NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. THE 24 HRS AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO PEAK AT 25-50MM...WITH LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 75-100MM. THIS IS TO REPEAT
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY.

DURING MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE FORECAST AREA AND ONCE AGAIN FAVOR SCATTERED CONVECTION ON SUNDAY-MONDAY.

MARINERO...DGOA/MARN (EL SALVADOR)
CANTILLO...IDEAM (COLOMBIA)
DAVISON...HPC (USA)

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. The combination of a trough withy a Tropical Wave will asure scattered showers thru the Eastern Caribbean islands during the next few days.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
251 PM AST THU JUL 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INDUCE A
STRONGER WIND FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA. LOW LEVEL PERTURBATIONS
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...INCREASING THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...WHERE FEW SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENTS AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH...HAS DESTABILIZE THE LOCAL
ATMOSPHERE...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WERE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY. AS THIS UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE WESTERN PART OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. AS THIS TROUGH MOVE WEST DURING THE WEEKEND...A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
EAST...INCREASING THE SURFACE WINDS OVER THE AREA.

FOR NEXT WEEK...A TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY NEAR 45 WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS
WAVE...LATEST NAAPS AEROSOL FORECAST INDICATED ANOTHER ROUND OF
SAHARAN DUST WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...LIMITING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.AVIATION...PATCHES OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN A NORTHEASTERLY TRADE
WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO
TIME THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...TJSJ...
TJPS...TIST AND TISX WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE VCSH AND SHRA UNTIL
AT LEAST 13/00Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS
TJMZ WITH PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR UNTIL 12/22Z. WIND IS EXPECTED
TO BE EAST NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR
SHRA/TSRA.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1021 PM AST THU JUL 12 2012

.UPDATE...PATCHES OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH AREAS OF
ENHANCED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ACCOMPANYING A LOW TO MID LEVEL INDUCED
TROUGH. SATELLITE IMAGERY IMAGERY SHOWED TUTT LOW WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION WHILE MAINTAINING A WESTERLY WIND FLOW ALOFT. LATEST
TJSJ 13/00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING AND VAD WIND PROFILE SUGGESTS A
GRADUAL SHIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WHICH HAS NOW BECOME MORE
EASTERLY. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GRADUAL SHIFT TO MORE EAST
SOUTHEAST FLOW BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT MADE ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE BASED ON PRESENT CONDITIONS AND LATEST
GUIDANCE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM...THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WAS NOW NEAR 46 WEST WITH AN
ELONGATED SURGE OF MOISTURE PRECEDING THE WAVE ALONG 50/51 WEST.
LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH SO FAR HAD FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON
OVERALL WEATHER SCENARIO...NOW SUGGESTS THAT BOTH FEATURES WILL
ENTER AND QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
A SLOT OF DRIER/SUBSIDING AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...JUST AHEAD OF THE NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE AND TROPICAL
WAVE. HOWEVER EXPECT LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECT TO STILL AID IN
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEEKEND.

BY TUESDAY AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF SAHARAN AIR
LAYER/DUST IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THEREFORE
DRIER AND HAZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH INCREASING EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS.

[Gustywind]

Tropical Activity

[cycloneye]

Good morning. No changes to what the forecast from the last couple of days had and that is scattered showers this weekend as a trough and Tropical Wave move across the Eastern Caribbean.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
556 AM AST FRI JUL 13 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT LOW NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING...WILL
MOVE WEST NORTHWEST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A BROAD LOW TO MID
LEVEL REFLECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PASS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...WITH A SECOND TUTT INDUCED
PERTURBATION EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...AS AFOREMENTIONED
TUTT LOW CONTINUES MOVING WEST NORTHWEST TO OUR NORTH AND BROAD
LOW TO MID LEVEL REFLECTION CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...THESE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL COMBINE
WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AGAIN TODAY...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT A SECOND TUTT
INDUCED PERTURBATION TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA...WITH THE BEST
MOISTURE EARLY IN THE DAY...BRIEF "DRYING FOR THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DEEPER MOISTURE AGAIN DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING HOURS. IN GENERAL...THIS SHOULD
TRANSLATE INTO ANOTHER DAY WITH SUNSHINE AND CLOUDINESS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH THE EVENING. THEREAFTER...BRIEF "DRYING" IS EXPECTED
AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/VERY EARLY SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY SOMEWHAT
DEEPER MOISTURE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY...AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AN OVERALL DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR MASS SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY ENCOMPASS THE FA FOR LATE
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SAHARAN DUST RESULTING
IN INCREASINGLY HAZY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...QUICK PASSING SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT TIST/TISX...TNCM/TKPK AND TJSJ THROUGH AT
LEAST 13/15Z. AFTER...13/17Z TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
TJBQ/TJMZ AND TJSJ...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND
MTN OBSCURATION NEAR THESE TAF SITES. WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 76 90 79 / 40 40 20 40
STT 91 80 91 81 / 40 30 40 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST FRI JUL 13 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT LOW NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL REFLECTION CONTINUED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SECOND TUTT INDUCED
PERTURBATION EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS WERE CONCENTRATED OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ALSO A CU LINE DEVELOPED OVER EL YUNQUE
AND AFFECTED THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS
WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AT AROUND SUNSET.

THE TUTT LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY
WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS
WILL BE ENHANCED BY THIS FEATURE THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONCENTRATE OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO BUT WINDS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT SE COMPONENT THEREFORE SHOWERS
COULD ALSO AFFECT SOME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL NOW LOCATED AT AROUND 54 W...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST...REACHING OUR LOCAL FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...QUICK PASSING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT TIST/TISX AND TJSJ THROUGH AT LEAST 13/22Z. TSRA WILL
CONTINUE IN AND AROUND TJBQ/TJMZ...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AND MTN OBSCURATION NEAR THESE TAF SITES ALSO UNTIL
13/22Z. WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ON MONDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 90 79 90 / 50 20 40 30
STT 80 91 81 91 / 30 40 50 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
951 PM AST FRI JUL 13 2012

.UPDATE...PASSING SHOWERS CONTINUED AFFECTING THE LOCAL REGION
TONIGHT. THESE PASSING SHOWERS WERE FAST MOVING...BUT SOME PRODUCED
BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WITH PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTING THE REGION FROM TIME TO
TIME. ALTHOUGH LATEST TJSJ 14/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON...STILL
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS TUTT LOW CONTINUES NORTH OF THE AREA...AND A NARROW
BAND OF MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE AREA. LITTLE CHANGES TO FORECAST
GRIDS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. We will be between troughs and Tropical Waves for the comming days so expect scattered showers to be prevalant.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
554 AM AST SAT JUL 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT AXIS WILL REMAIN LOCATED NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...BEFORE RE-ALIGNING TO OUR EAST
NORTHEAST LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN LIFTING SLOWLY
WEST TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS THE FA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY
AND THEN AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR TODAY...ANOTHER TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATION WILL
MOVE WEST ACROSS THE FA...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE EARLY IN THE
DAY...BRIEF "DRYING" FOR THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...
FOLLOWED BY DEEPER MOISTURE AGAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING HOURS. IN GENERAL...THIS SHOULD STILL TRANSLATE
INTO ANOTHER DAY WITH SUNSHINE AND CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH THE EVENING. THEREAFTER...BRIEF "DRYING" IS EXPECTED AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT/VERY EARLY SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY SOMEWHAT DEEPER
MOISTURE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...AS
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AN OVERALL DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS IS
STILL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ENCOMPASS THE FA FOR LATER
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SAHARAN DUST RESULTING
IN INCREASINGLY HAZY SKIES. LOOKING AHEAD...AS TUTT REALIGNS AND
THEN MOVES ACROSS THE FA...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE INITIALLY
LIMITED...DYNAMICS SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME DECENT FOR
WEDNESDAY...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE FA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...QUICK PASSING SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT TIST/TISX...TNCM/TKPK AND TJSJ THROUGH AT LEAST
14/15Z. AFTER...14/17Z TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
TJBQ/TJMZ AND TJSJ...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND
MTN OBSCURATION NEAR THESE TAF SITES. WIND WILL CONTINUE FROM EAST
SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHRA/TSRA. IN
ADDITION...AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST WILL REACH THE LOCAL AREA
SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY HAZY
SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 89 80 / 30 40 30 20
STT 90 81 88 81 / 40 50 30 30

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...


TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 16N42W
TO 8N40W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A
SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. ANY CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM
20N60W TO 9N56W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
NARROW BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 56W-59W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF A
LINE FROM 12N60W OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 16N61W TO
21N62W.

[Gustywind]

We have some episodes of rain this morning. Not so much for the moment but it's always pleasant. for the plants, the grass. Given our Pro Mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe, conditions should deteriorate a bit tonight and being "stormy" especially tommorow with numerous showers and even tsorms. We will see , i will keep your informed as usual

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1735 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 16N45W
TO 10N42W MOVING W ABOUT 15-20 KT. WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE
OF A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY PRESENT NEAR THE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM
19N62W TO 10N60W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
NARROW BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED
OVER THE SRN-MOST EXTENSION OF THE WAVE S OF 12N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC ALONG 12N16W 10N227W 12N31W TO 11N40W. THE ITCZ AXIS IS
ANALYZED FROM 10N46W TO 9N58W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 130-170 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
NEAR THE ITCZ.

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
218 PM AST SAT JUL 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT LOW NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATION WILL ALSO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 60 WEST THIS
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
LATE IN THE MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALSO EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WAS THE
RESULT OF A MOIST EAST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH A TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATION THAT MOVING ACROSS THE FA TODAY.
THIS PERTURBATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE
LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT. A VERY BRIEF DRYING PERIOD ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE...ALONG 60 WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE WEST
TONIGHT...PASSING MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AN OVERALL DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE FA FOR
LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SAHARAN DUST RESULTING IN
INCREASINGLY HAZY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...QUICK PASSING SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT TIST/TISX...AND TJSJ THROUGH AT LEAST 14/23Z.
TSRA WILL COTINUE IN AND AROUND TJBQ/TJMZ...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND MTN OBSCURATION NEAR THESE TAF SITES ALSO
UNTIL 14/23Z. WIND WILL CONTINUE FROM EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHRA/TSRA. IN ADDITION...AN AREA OF SAHARAN
DUST WILL REACH THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY HAZY SKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 80 91 / 40 30 20 20
STT 81 88 81 90 / 50 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N43W TO 16N49W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP MOISTURE
SURGE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN
45W-55W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N61W TO 19N63W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE
DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 60W-65W
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING ON THE SOUTHERN EXTEND OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 61W-63W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
10N21W TO 12N32W TO 11N42W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N47W TO 09N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 11W-18W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 23W-30W.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1001 PM AST SAT JUL 14 2012

.UPDATE...A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH A LINE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS BRUSHING THE NORTHEAST
COAST OF PUERTO RICO. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT
OVERALL...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. NO CHANGES
NEEDED TO FORECAST PACKAGE TONIGHT. ONLY UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST
MARINE FORECAST WITH LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS IS FCST AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...QUICK PASSING LOW TO MID LVL CLD LYRS WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT TIST...TISX...TJSJ THROUGH AT LEAST
15/14Z. MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVR ERN PR
MAINLY WITH PASSING CLDS AND SHRA. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FROM EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS. AN AREA OF SUSPENDED SAHARAN
DUST WILL REACH THE LOCAL AREA BY SUNDAY...THEN LINGER ACROSS THE
FLYING REGION THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Wave moves thru PR today but the main weathermaker will be a trough that will be in the NE Caribbean by midweek producing deep moisture.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
458 AM AST SUN JUL 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS
FORECAST TO EXTENT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK WITH A CLOSED LOW SETTING OVER PUERTO RICO ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT MID LEVELS...RIDGE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 65 WEST
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST...AND MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR AREA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. NAAPS MODEL SUGGESTS INCREASINGLY HAZY SKIES
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 65 WEST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST...AND MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...
A SURGE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA TODAY
TO PRODUCE PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE
ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING AND EVENING HOURS AS WELL AS AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
PUERTO RICO. AN OVERALL DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS IS FORECAST
TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL AREA LATE ON MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY...
RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY HAZY SKIES AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. BY MID WEEK THE WEATHER SCENARIO MAY CHANGE
AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW
ESTABLISHES OVER THE AREA AND DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. THEREFORE...A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS IS FCST AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...QUICK PASSING LOW TO MID LVL CLD LYRS WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT TIST...TISX...TJSJ THROUGH AT LEAST
15/14Z. MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVR ERN PR
MAINLY WITH PASSING CLDS AND SHRA. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FROM EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS. AN AREA OF SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST WILL
REACH THE LOCAL AREA BY SUNDAY...THEN LINGER ACROSS THE FLYING
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 91 79 / 20 30 20 20
STT 88 79 90 79 / 30 40 30 20

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 16N51W TO 10N47W
MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN OF A SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 20N67W TO 11N67W
MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS IN AN BROAD AREA OF DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 18N16W ALONG 12N24W TO 7N33W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES
ALONG 6N45W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-13N E
OF 21W THE COAST OF W AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 28W-31W.

[Gustywind]

[msbee]

good morning everyone
Happy Sunday!


It's nice and breezy here ( winds from the E at 16mph) and occasional 2 minute showers now and then.
Nothing much to speak of.

[Gustywind]

good morning everyone
Happy Sunday!


It's nice and breezy here ( winds from the E at 16mph) and occasional 2 minute showers now and then.
Nothing much to speak of.

So enjoy it Barbara

[abajan]

It's getting dark and stating to rain here. Looks like we may get some thunderstorms later too.