Global model runs discussion

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

In spite of the somewhat hyper active start to the season (and even preseason) you guys & girls do know it is only early to mid-July, right?

[Kingarabian]

In spite of the somewhat hyper active start to the season (and even preseason) you guys & girls do know it is only early to mid-July, right?

Thing about that hyper active start is that the 2nd and 3rd storms all formed in un-orthodox fashion. Things happened to be at the right place at the right time. They weren't your regular average storm like Debby was.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

In spite of the somewhat hyper active start to the season (and even preseason) you guys & girls do know it is only early to mid-July, right?

Thing about that hyper active start is that the 2nd and 3rd storms all formed in un-orthodox fashion. Things happened to be at the right place at the right time. They weren't your regular average storm like Debby was.

Exactly, things have merely gotten back to 'normal' or more average. If we still do not have any storms by roughly mid-August, or even anything showing up on the models, then we can start worrying.

[cycloneye]

We continue to sit and wait.



By the way,the 12z package of the models didn't show anything of importance. Yes,some waves moving thru the Atlantic but nothing more.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Now that's funny!

[Hurricaneman]

There isnt going to be much in the way of favorable conditions according to that moisture model until August 4th because there will be stable air until then and not unstable, but I believe at that point the lid will pop off and we could get a run of tropical activity

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[cycloneye]

Maybe maybe a trough split off the East U.S coast may cause something to develop by next weekend?

00z GFS



00z ECMWF

[Andrew92]

Luis, I have been looking for that kind of possibility for sometime in this middle part of July. Since 1997, the only "real" El Nino year without something forming around this time in this part of the Atlantic was 2009. Another historical thing that almost assuredly gets overlooked as well is that even in the most recent El Nino year before then, 1994, had a short-lived tropical depression form from similar origins; it quickly ran into South Carolina and dissipated, though.

I dunno, I just can't shake this feeling that something, albeit not very strong and probably a non-threat to land, might just try to get going this week.

-Andrew92

EDIT: I also just discovered another depression of similar origin formed on July 24 near Bermuda in 1992. Sources:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_w ... elim01.gif
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_w ... elim01.gif
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_w ... elim02.gif

[ROCK]

still nothing in the long range......I feel like crying...

[mcheer23]

still nothing in the long range......I feel like crying...

I feel you.

[cycloneye]

From today the long range goes to August and that means we have to start watching what the models have as the CV season draws closer.

[mcheer23]

There will eventually be something on long range................

[Kingarabian]

In 384hrs the Atlantic is just boiling with activity.

[Kingarabian]

In 120 hours the Euro maybe, MAYBE, just maybe trying to develop a T-Wave.
(Also has something real special in the W-Pac!)

[JPmia]

Any clues as to what the setup looks like in the long term models? Seems like the ridge placement thus far in the models and the idea that there will be homebrew development could mean more threats to the southeast/Gulf?

[ConvergenceZone]

I remember WXMAN mentioning that he didn't think we would have any development in July...At first I questioned it, but now I think he was right. Definately nothing on the far horizon, unless something develops in the Gulf, I think July is in the clear.

[cycloneye]

So far none of the models show anything of significance on the pipe. And GFS which goes already into early August still doesn't have anything. Let's wait and see when the models will start to latch on something.

[gatorcane]

There is alot of SAL and dry stable air across all of the MDR. It's pretty typical for July. We will need to see a few wave moves through to moisten up the MDR but we are still about 3-4 weeks (based on climatology) before things start to ramp up in the far eastern Atlantic.

[ConvergenceZone]

So far none of the models show anything of significance on the pipe. And GFS which goes already into early August still doesn't have anything. Let's wait and see when the models will start to latch on something.

The good news is that I'm not seeing any early season cancel posts which are usually quite numerous in the month of July if there's no activity.....

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Just for you CZ. No storms in July or early August let's wrap this thing up early and declare a season cancel.