2012 EPAC season

[Kingarabian]

I doubt the EPac will see a Cat 5, unless it is close to land and/or recon confirms it. It is, otherwise, very difficult to get the upgrade...as we all know. T7.0s across the board are...well, not a very common occurrence.

Hurricane Celia of 2010 begs to differ .

[brunota2003]

I doubt the EPac will see a Cat 5, unless it is close to land and/or recon confirms it. It is, otherwise, very difficult to get the upgrade...as we all know. T7.0s across the board are...well, not a very common occurrence.

Hurricane Celia of 2010 begs to differ .

I didn't say it was "impossible", just very difficult

[Kingarabian]

MONSOON REGION GETS MORE ACTIVE AS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS GEL INTO
PLACE...BUT NO PRESENT MECHANISM IS AVAILABLE TO PROMPT UPLIFT.
SO NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO THREATEN E PAC AT THIS
TIME NOR FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

Already active Monsoon trough is expected to get active again in a few days.

[Yellow Evan]

I doubt the EPac will see a Cat 5, unless it is close to land and/or recon confirms it. It is, otherwise, very difficult to get the upgrade...as we all know. T7.0s across the board are...well, not a very common occurrence.

Hurricane Celia of 2010 begs to differ .

I didn't say it was "impossible", just very difficult

Most EPAC Cat 5's did not have recon.

[cycloneye]

It looks like the EPAC will be once again active with possibly Gilma as Invest 90E is up.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like we may have our first 90% bust ever.

[RL3AO]

Looks like we may have our first 90% bust ever.

Nope.

From last year

Atlantic Basin Genesis Forecast Reliability Table
Forecast Likelihood
(%)
Verifying Genesis
Occurrence Rate (%) Number of Forecasts
0 6 67
10 11 169
20 24 100
30 31 59
40 25 36
50 37 19
60 62 29
70 65 17
80 83 6
90 83 6
100 100 4

Forecast Likelihood
(%)
Verifying Genesis
Occurrence Rate (%) Number of Forecasts
0 3 32
10 8 105
20 29 55
30 21 14
40 57 14
50 77 22
60 80 10
70 63 19
80 71 7
90 80 5
100 100 3

Atlantic and EPac both missed one last year.

[cycloneye]

Something to watch at EPAC.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT JUL 28 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AND
ANY DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Yellow Evan]

It looks really nice atm.

[Yellow Evan]

DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED
MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A
SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH.

[Yellow Evan]

And the last TWO

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. THERE ARE STILL NO SIGNS OF A
SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH.

[Yellow Evan]

This is system is a bad boy.

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO. DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED...AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

[Kingarabian]

THESE BUSTS!!!

[Yellow Evan]

I'm starting to get frustrated with the EPAC, yea. Thank goodness for HURDAT going back pre-1995, or I would have not survived the two seasons. At least 2009, 2008, and 2006-00 were decent.

[cycloneye]

Another area to watch for development .

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED AUG 1 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE...HAS FORMED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE WAVE
MOVES TO THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Yellow Evan]

Long gone again. ;'(

[Kingarabian]

This EPAC season has been a disappointment!!1!

[cycloneye]

This EPAC season has been a disappointment!!1!

It has been very quiet for the past couple of weeks and it looks that it will continue that way for a while.

[Yellow Evan]

This EPAC season has been a disappointment!!1!

It has been very quiet for the past couple of weeks and it looks that it will continue that way for a while.

92E is here though.

[Yellow Evan]

EPAC might be on first again. We could have another invest soon.


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071744
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE AUG 7 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
RECENTLY-UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM GILMA...LOCATED ABOUT 585 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH OF
ACAPULCO MEXICO. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...THIS SYSTEM OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GILMA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPZ32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GILMA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPZ22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP2.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN