Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Well,different from what Barbara in St Maarten is enjoying on this Sunday,here we have been thru scattered showers as a weak wave moves thru.

For our Caribbean and Central American friends,we have to begin to watch how things are going between Africa and the Lesser Antilles as the most active period of the Hurricane season is getting closer. You will have all the information here about what is going on so stay tuned to this thread.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 15N53W TO 7N52W
MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN OF A SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM N OF HISPANIOLA AT 21N70W TO N
VENEZUELA AT 11N69W MOVING W AT 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS IN AN BROAD
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM GUINEA-BISSAU AT 12N16W TO
10N29W TO 7N34W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 7N34W TO 6N40W TO FRENCH
GUIANA AT 5N53W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 14W-21W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 29W-32W.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
219 PM AST SUN JUL 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION IS FORECAST TO SINK OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW
OVER THE REGION RICO ON TUESDAY. TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 66 WEST THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD...AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TONIGHT. NAAPS MODEL SUGGESTS INCREASINGLY HAZY SKIES
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALSO EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN...AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS THE RESULT OF
THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVING MOSTLY
SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD
AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT. THE GFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT A DRY AIR MASS...AT LEAST AT LOWER LEVELS... WILL ENCOMPASS
THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...AN UPPER TROUGH JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE FA THIS AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION
ON MONDAY...DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED LOW TUESDAY AND LINGERING
ACROSS OR NEAR THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY. THUS...ALTHOUGH
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE INITIALLY LIMITED...UPPER DYNAMICS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY BECOME DECENT FOR TUESDAY AND THEREAFTER...AND
THEREFORE SOME CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON
MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO. NAAPS MODEL SUGGESTS
INCREASINGLY HAZY SKIES ACROSS THE LOCAL TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS IS FCST AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...QUICK PASSING SHOWERS WILL
AFFECT TIST...TISX AND TJSJ THROUGH AT LEAST 15/22Z. SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO...PRODUCING PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT TJMZ AND TJBQ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM
EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS. AN AREA OF SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST WILL REACH
THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT...THEN LINGER ACROSS THE FLYING REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 91 79 91 / 30 20 20 20
STT 79 90 79 90 / 40 30 20 20

[Macrocane]

Hi guys, first of all I want to apologize because I have not been posting too much but I have been very busy between my job and my graduation thesis but I have been reading your posts so don't think I have forgotten about you . After August 10 I will have more time to post more often.

Now, let me tell you that June 2012 was the 3rd driest June on record in El Salvador. This is the rainfall registered in some stations versus the normal:

Acajutla
2012: 147 mm/5.79 inches
Normal: 270 mm/10.63 inches

Santa Ana
2012: 130 mm/5.12 inches
Normal: 315 mm/12.4 inches

San Salvador
2012: 59 mm/2.32 inches
Normal: 290 mm/11.41 inches

San Miguel
2012: 97 mm/3.82 inches
Normal: 266 mm/10.47 inches

[cycloneye]

Hi guys, first of all I want to apologize because I have not been posting too much but I have been very busy between my job and my graduation thesis but I have been reading your posts so don't think I have forgotten about you . After August 10 I will have more time to post more often.

Now, let me tell you that June 2012 was the 3rd driest June on record in El Salvador. This is the rainfall registered in some stations versus the normal:

Acajutla
2012: 147 mm/5.79 inches
Normal: 270 mm/10.63 inches

Santa Ana
2012: 130 mm/5.12 inches
Normal: 315 mm/12.4 inches

San Salvador
2012: 59 mm/2.32 inches
Normal: 290 mm/11.41 inches

San Miguel
2012: 97 mm/3.82 inches
Normal: 266 mm/10.47 inches

That is much more important for you than anything else my friend. Pretty impressive rainfall totals there.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N53W TO 15N55W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO TRACK AS SAHARAN DUST
CONTINUES TO SHROUD THE SIGNATURE OF THE WAVE AT THE SURFACE.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY HAS CONTINUED TO FLATTEN OUT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS DUE TO SYNOPTIC SCALE SURFACE RIDGING
BETWEEN 50W-65W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N72W TO 21N72W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE
DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 70W-75W
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO
12N20W TO 11N37W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 11N37W TO 10N41W TO 05N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 14W-22W.


CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
24N85W IS PROVIDING THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 75W WITH
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY
LOCATED IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...WESTERN CUBA N
OF 22N BETWEEN 79W-85W...AND OVER FAR EASTERN CUBA N OF 20N
BETWEEN 74W-76W. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 13N76W AND
STRETCHES INFLUENCE FROM 60W TO AS FAR WEST AS 93W OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE EAST PACIFIC REGION. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH MAXIMIZED UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 81W-86W. THIS
AREA OF MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL
THIS EVENING. THE TROPICAL WAVES ALONG 73W AND APPROACHING WAVE
ALONG 55W CARRY LITTLE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND CONVECTION DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST THAT EXTENDS TO ALMOST
72W THIS EVENING. SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ALSO
DIPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NE CARIBBEAN PROVIDING FOR
OVERALL STABLE AND FAIR WEATHER.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1004 PM AST SUN JUL 15 2012

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AFFECTED THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA THIS
EVENING AS A PATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVED ACROSS THE AREA.
LATEST SATELITE IMAGES SHOWS A DRIER AIR MASS APPROACHING THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS DRY AIR...WITH SAHARAN DUST WILL ENCOMPASS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP SIGNIFICANTLY. IN GENERAL...VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE
FOR TOMORROW...WITH THE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. NO
CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST GRIDS TONIGHT.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A trough in the NE Caribbean will increase the chance of showers by Midweek.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
442 AM AST MON JUL 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK WITH A CLOSED LOW SETTING NEAR PUERTO
RICO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT MID LEVELS...RIDGE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN OVERALL DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS IS
FORECAST TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY...RESULTING IN HAZY SKIES AND LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...UNDER THE PREVAILING WIND FLOW...A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND U.S.V.I. STILL EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER
OR TWO ACROSS MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS AND
DIURNAL HEATING. FOR MID WEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL AS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH A CLOSED LOW ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO
PRODUCE CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. LOOKING AHEAD...FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK ANOTHER ROUND OF DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS COULD BE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS IS FCST AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...QUICK PASSING LOW TO MID LVL CLDS WITH
FEW-ISOLD EMBEDDED -SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
INCOMING SAHARAN DUST WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DOMINANT TWDS THE END OF
THE FCST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. AS A RESULT...SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 91 79 / 20 20 20 40
STT 90 79 90 79 / 20 20 20 40

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N37W 10N39W. THIS
WAVE SHOWS UP IN THE COMPOSITE TPW IMAGERY...IN LONG-TERM
SATELLITE LOOPS FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS...AND IN THE GFS MODEL
AT 700 MB AND AT 850 MB. ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 11N
BETWEEN 38W AND 40W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 23N73W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN HAITI...TO 14N74W
IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS NOT EASY TO FIND
PRECIPITATION THAT JUST IS RELATED TO THIS TROPICAL WAVE.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS FROM 13N TO
19N BETWEEN 63W AND 71W FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC POSSIBLY IS MORE RELATED TO THE NEARBY UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAN IT IS JUST TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N16W TO 11N19W 12N23W 10N32W 9N33W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
9N33W TO 7N38W AND 6N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 45W AND 52W...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 6N TO 11N TO THE EAST
OF 25W...FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 25W AND 40W AND TO THE SOUTH OF
10N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W.


THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT
IS TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE EAST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N BETWEEN 73W IN COLOMBIA AND 83W
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. REMNANT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE LINGERING PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO
THE WEST OF 80W. STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN INDIVIDUAL
CLUSTERS IS ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. BROAD SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS PART OF THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE THAT COVERS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT
IS TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 70W.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Tropical Activity

[Gustywind]

Again, fair weather and slightly hazy sky in Guadeloupe. A lovely day to enjoy

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

COMPUTER MODEL DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS FAR WEST
AFRICA SUGGESTED A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OFF THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA AND SENEGAL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AXIS ANALYZED
FROM 18N16W TO 11N17W. NO CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED TO
THE WAVE DUE TO HIGH REFLECTIVITY VALUES DRY/SAHARAN AIR NOTED
ON METEOSAT-9. THEREFORE...AS THE WAVE CONTINUES EMBEDDED IN
THIS ENVIRONMENT...THE PLACEMENT OF THE AXIS MAY VARY OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
FROM 19N42W TO 10N45W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE PRECEDES A
SURGE OF MOISTURE NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY DUE TO SAHARAN DUST AROUND THE AREA.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND SW
BAHAMAS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 23N73W TO 15N75W MOVING W AT
15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW AREA OF DEEP
MOISTURE DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE
IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST ALOFT NOTED ON
METEOSAT-9. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS WEST AFRICA...PASSING
THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU ALONG 12N16W TO 8N25W 10N40W 9N47W
...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 7N53W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA
NEAR 8N58W. SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS W OF
27W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N E OF 20W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE
SE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N85W IS HELPING TO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN BASIN W OF
84W. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL BASIN ALONG THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING AN AREA OF
SAHARAN DUST ALOFT NOTED ON METEOSAT-9. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING N OF 14N BETWEEN
69W-73W...WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH
MAXIMIZED UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR 12N80W AND A UPPER TROUGH BASE OVER THE ERN
CARIBBEAN IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.

[Gustywind]

Hey Cycloneye, what's the weather like en la isla del encanto ?

[cycloneye]

Again, fair weather and slightly hazy sky in Guadeloupe. A lovely day to enjoy

Here is the same with hazy and dry weather but let's enjoy it while it lasts as by midweek increasing moisture will creep into the NE Caribbean.

We have to begin to watch what is going on to our east as the peak of the hurricane season approaches to see if we are going to have threats by storms or hurricanes. Because of that all the discussions by NHC and other information will be posted in this thread so stay tuned.

[Gustywind]

Thanks to you, you're definitely right. Good job Luis as USUAL by keeping us informed . I appreciate your open mind and especially your lucidity. Always a pleasure to read you. You're our Superman

Keeping always the good eye in the sky and in the Cyclon.. eye, Luis is our Superman of our carib thread :)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
312 PM AST MON JUL 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT
WESTWARD AND RELOCATES AS A TUTT LOW NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. LOW TO MID HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL LINGER JUST NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN INDUCED TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
A TROPICAL WAVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HAZY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL REGION TODAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. INCREASING MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN A SUBSIDENT/DRY PATTERN...LIMITING THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
TUESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY...GFS BRINGS AN INDUCED TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT...WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE
THE INSTABILITY OVER THE ISLANDS. THIS TRANSLATES TO INCREASED
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HAZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DUE TO SAHARAN DUST
BUT THE VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE P6SM. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT AROUND 15 KNOTS
GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING
THE NIGHT TO AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS BUT REMAINING FROM THE
EAST...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ONCE AGAIN AFTER 17/12Z. DUE TO
THE AMOUNT OF SAHARAN DUST...NO SIGNIFICANT SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEAS COULD REACH 7 FEET ON FRIDAY AS THE
NEXT TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 91 79 90 / 20 20 40 40
STT 79 90 79 89 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ALONG 19N20W TO
13N17W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE LIES ON THE E SIDE OF A
SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. THERE IS ALSO A CLEARING IN THE SAHARAN DUST LAYER WITH
AN AREA OF DENSE DUST DIRECTLY BEHIND THE WAVE. DUE TO THIS AREA
OF DUST...NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N42W TO 10N46W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.
THE WAVE LIES ON THE W SIDE OF A SURFACE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. IT ALSO COINCIDES
WITH 700 MB MODEL DATA THAT INDICATES A MID-LEVEL TROUGH...OFTEN
THE STRONGEST INDICATION OF THE WAVE...NEAR THE SURFACE
LOCATION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE SRN TIP OF
THE WAVE WITHIN THE ITCZ REGION FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 43W-48W.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND SW
BAHAMAS ALONG 23N75W TO 15N76W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NRN CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS DRAWING SOME OF THE
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE SE INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN. DAYTIME HEATING
HAS HELPED FORM CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.
ONE CLUSTER IS ACROSS HAITI FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 72W-74W. OTHERS
ARE OVER JAMAICA FROM 18N-19N BETWEEN 77W-80W...AND ACROSS ERN
CUBA FROM 20N-21N BETWEEN 75W-77W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU AT 13N17W CONTINUING S OF THE TROPICAL WAVE TO
NEAR 9N30W TO S OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 11N40W 9N47W. THE
ITCZ BEGINS AT 9N47W CONTINUING ALONG 8N52W TO 9N61W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 31W-34W...AND FROM
7N-9N BETWEEN 48W-53W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE
NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...NICARAGUA...AS WELL AS OVER WRN CUBA.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS S OF COSTA RICA
AND PANAMA TO NRN COLOMBIA. A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING JAMAICA
AND ERN CUBA IS HELPING PRODUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER BOTH
THESE AREAS ALONG WITH HAITI. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE
FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO COSTA RICA. THE
ERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR WHICH IS HELPING
MAINTAIN FAIR CONDITIONS BESIDES NEAR THE WAVE. THE ERN
CARIBBEAN IS COVERED BY A DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE CENTRAL ATLC TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO NW VENEZUELA. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST COVERS MUCH OF THE ERN CARIBBEAN FURTHER
SUPPORTING FAIR CONDITIONS. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25 KTS IS
PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH LIGHTER WINDS TO EITHER
SIDE. EXPECT THE WAVE TO CONTINUE MOVING WWD DRAWING MOISTURE
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
849 PM AST MON JUL 16 2012

.UPDATE...17/00Z SOUNDING SHOWED A MARINE LAYER UP TO ABOUT 4200
FEET THEN A SEMI-DRY LAYER YUP TO ALMOST 15 KFT. MID LAYERS WERE
VERY DRY...LESS THAN 10 PERCENT RH. A FEW SHOWERS...ALMOST
INCONSEQUENTIAL...HAVE LINGERED AROUND CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS EVENING AND JUST OFF THE WEST COAST IN
AMZ741.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST IS HOLDING VERY WELL AND WILL MAKE NO
CHANGES AND ISSUE NO UPDATES TO ANY PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME. SEAS AT
BUOY 41043 CAME DOWN BELOW 6 FEET...BUT WINDS NEAR TO PUERTO RICO
HAVE REMAINED FRESH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 17/18Z. HAZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DUE TO SAHARAN
DUST BUT THE VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE P6SM. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 17/18Z-17/22Z IN THE VICINITY OF TJMZ. LATEST
17/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED WINDS FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST BETWEEN 12
TO 24 KTS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 20K FEET.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Increasing moisture will occur from Wednesday as a trough and Tropical Wave combine to produce scattered showers in the Eastern Caribbean.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
427 AM AST TUE JUL 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. AT MID LEVELS...AN INDUCED/INVERTED
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS THROUGH
AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN OVERALL DRIER AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...RESULTING IN HAZY SKIES AND LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...UNDER THE PREVAILING WIND FLOW...
CONTINUE TO EXPECT A FEW PASSING SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS FOLLOWED BY LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE
MAINLY FOCUSED OVER SW PUERTO RICO DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS AND
DIURNAL HEATING.

AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL MIGRATE WEST AS RIDGE
PATTERN BUILDS FROM THE EAST. AT MID LEVELS...AN INDUCED/INVERTED
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A TROPICAL WAVE ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...FOR
MID WEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED
FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 17/18Z. HAZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DUE TO
SAHARAN DUST BUT THE VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE P6SM. SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 17/18Z-17/22Z IN THE VICINITY OF
TJMZ. LATEST 17/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED WINDS FROM THE EAST
NORTHEAST BETWEEN 12 TO 24 KTS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 20K FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 78 90 79 / 10 40 40 50
STT 90 79 89 79 / 10 40 30 50