Current Wave-Pouches

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colbroe
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Current Wave-Pouches

#1 Postby colbroe » Sat Jul 14, 2012 3:50 pm

P02L
SYNOPSIS 2012071300

* Still working on GFS computer issues.

P02L
15N, 33W
850 hPa

Hovmollers have a weak v signal at all three levels, but it is strongest at 850 hPa.

Model tend to say the same story: Weak pouch at 850 hPa shifts southwestward and is stretched zonally, quickly dissipating.


ECMWF: Note the large differences in the phase speeds determined using different variables: v850 -8.6, RH -11.5, TPW -16.0. Decided to go with middle value (RH), which is similar to that of the other models. Pouch is very uncertain already at 12 hours, and gone by 24 hours.

GFS:

UKMET: Like ECMWF, phase speed based upon RH is greater than for v850. Went with the slower v850. Pouch lasts longest: 36 hours

NOGAPS: Uncertain in analysis because the pouch is more of a NE-SW trough. Becomes a more circular pouch at 12 hours, but then appears to be stretched by 24 hours.

HWRF-GEN:


ECMWF -11.5 RH 12h
GFS ---- ---- ---h
UKMET -11.2 v850 36h
NOGAPS -11.9 v850 12h
HWGEN ---- ---- ---h
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colbroe
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Re: Current Wave-Pouches (00 UTC 13 July 2012)

#2 Postby colbroe » Sun Jul 15, 2012 9:06 am

SYNOPSIS 2012071400

* Still working on GFS computer issues.

P03L
13N, 33W
700 hPa

This may be a "chase" after a figment of UKMET's imagination. UKMET develops something P03L in the moist, spinning region in the wake of P02L. The other models are not convinced, so P03L is somewhat of a gamble since nothing is currently there.


ECMWF: Barely to 12 hours, and a highly uncertain position in the analysis.

GFS:

UKMET: Nothing at first, but a definite pouch at 36 hours, which persists for the rest of the 120-hour forecast, with decent intensification.

NOGAPS: Nothing at all.

HWRF-GEN:


ECMWF -8.0 v700/RH 12h
GFS ---- ---- ---h
UKMET -5.7 v700 120h
NOGAPS -12.7 RH ---h
HWGEN ---- ---- ---h
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colbroe
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Re: Current Wave-Pouches (00 UTC 13 July 2012)

#3 Postby colbroe » Mon Jul 16, 2012 6:06 pm

SYNOPSIS 2012071600

* Still working on GFS computer issues.

P03L
13N, 39W
925 hPa

Evolving (not unexpectedly) story. I've been tracking at 700hPa, with the basic story of a pouch that "dives" to the southwest, into the ITCZ, and then slightly intensifies. Well, most things developing within the ITCZ tend to have the strongest signal at 925 hPa. This doesn't necessarily appear to be the case in the v Hovmollers in UKMET and ECMWF, which seem to have the strongest signal still up at 700 hPa; however, NOGAPS suddenly springs into life with today's run with a very strong 925 hPa signal. Since that seems like the natural progression of this system, I'll track at 925 hPa today.

ECMWF: Plenty of tiny OW maxima in the area, but nothing discernible as a pouch in the ECMWF.

GFS:

UKMET: Weaker than in previous runs. Consistent story of an OW max that dives southwestward into the ITCZ, intensifies slightly while remaining nearly stationary as P04L moves by to the north, and then moving westward, too. OW peaks at about 1.7x10-9 s-2 at 72 hours.

NOGAPS: Strongest of all three models. OW peaks near 6x10-9 s-2 at 60 hours. During days 3-4, it is moving quickly to the northwest, but is only a tiny OW max at 120 hours.

HWRF-GEN:


ECMWF -7.1 RH/TPW ---h
GFS ---- ---- ---h
UKMET -7.3 RH 120h
NOGAPS -6.6 RH 120h
HWGEN ---- ---- ---h
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colbroe
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Re: Current Wave-Pouches (00 UTC 13 July 2012)

#4 Postby colbroe » Mon Jul 16, 2012 8:30 pm

Tropical wave is along 18n42w to 10n46w moving W at 15-20 kt.
The wave lies on the W side of a surface of deep layer moisture
present in total precipitable water imagery. It also coincides
with 700 mb model data that indicates a mid-level trough...often
the strongest indication of the wave...near the surface
location. Scattered moderate convection is near the srn tip of
the wave within the ITCZ region from 8n-10n between 43w-48w
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colbroe
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Re: Current Wave-at 43 w

#5 Postby colbroe » Tue Jul 17, 2012 5:32 pm

This wave have developed significantly over the last few hours and the residents in the Southern Caribbean will get some much needed rain .
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