Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 20W. THE UPPER-AIR TIMESECTION DATA AND THE TPW DATA
SHOW THAT A WAVE RECENTLY EMERGED FROM AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM
GUINEA NEAR 10N TO SENEGAL AND GAMBIA NEAR 13N.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N47W 10N48W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE FROM 10N
TO 22N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 25N77W IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS
CUBA AND JAMAICA...TO 16N78W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG IN THE WATERS OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS FROM
25N TO 27N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W...BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA. EARLIER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS DISSIPATED...
GIVING WAY TO CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ELSEWHERE FROM 17N
TO 27N BETWEEN 74W AND 80W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW IS CUTTING ACROSS THE AREA OF THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W
TO 11N27W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N27W TO 9N33W 9N40W 8N47W
AND 7N52W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 6N
TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 23W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 29W AND 46W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE
SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 46W AND 60W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TOWARD THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA TOWARD NORTHEASTERN COASTAL COLOMBIA/NORTHWESTERN
COASTAL VENEZUELA.
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 8N/9N BETWEEN 73W IN
COLOMBIA...BEYOND 85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE COLOMBIA
EASTERN PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS FROM 4N TO 6N...AND IN PANAMA
COASTAL WATERS FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W. BROAD SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE IS PART OF THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE THAT COVERS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE ERN TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS
ANALYZED FROM 21N21W TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS NEAR 15N20W.
WAVE PRECEDES A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE NOTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...NO CONVECTION IS
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED TO THE WAVE DUE TO HIGH REFLECTIVITY VALUES
OF DRY/SAHARAN AIR NOTED ON METEOSAT-9.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING
FROM 19N47W TO 11N48W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE PRECEDES A
SURGE OF MOISTURE NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH
LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY DUE TO SAHARAN DUST AROUND THE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 24N78W ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO 16N78W MOVING W AT ABOUT 15
KT. THE WAVE IS BECOMING LESS DISTINCT ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING AN AREA OF
SAHARAN DUST ALOFT NOTED ON METEOSAT-9. UPPER LEVEL SOUNDINGS
FROM JAMAICA AND GRAND CAYMAN INDICATED THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE
AS WELL AS THE CLASSIC DOUBLE TEMPERATURE INVERSION PATTERN
ASSOCIATED TO THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY NOTED.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS WEST AFRICA...PASSING
THROUGH THE COAST OF SENEGAL ALONG 14N17W TO 15N21W 8N36W 10N44W
TO 9N49W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 7N53W TO THE COAST OF
GUYANA NEAR 6N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N
BETWEEN 30W-45W AND FROM 6N-13N E OF 23W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED OVER THE
YUCATAN CHANEL ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE IS HELPING
TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN BASIN W OF 83W TO INLAND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
N OF 18N. TO THE E OF THIS AREA OF CONVECTION...A TROPICAL WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS S OF CUBA AND W OF JAMAICA WITH VERY
LIMITED CONVECTION DUE TO SAHARAN DUST ALOFT IN THE VICINITY OF
THE WAVE NOTED ON METEOSAT-9. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER ASSOCIATED TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTI
CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND A DRY UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH E OF 72W. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS GUSTING TO
NEAR GALE FORCE CRITERIA OVER THE COASTAL WATERS NEAR COLOMBIA.
THE FAIR WEATHER OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY
SAHARAN DUST ALOFT NOTED ON METEOSAT-9.

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. As expected,rain chances increase from Wednesday and going into the weekend.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
349 PM AST TUE JUL 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO REALIGN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS EMBEDDED LOW MOVES WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS AND THEN WEST OF
THE FA. A WEAK INDUCED LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
A SECOND TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...AND SHOULD AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS
LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE REALIGNING TUTT SHOULD BE IN A PRETTY DECENT
LOCATION TO AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT PROBABLY THE BEST
DYNAMICS WILL BE TOMORROW. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK INDUCED LOW
TO MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AND WILL COMBINE
WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A
COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A SECOND TUTT INDUCED TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL PASS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
PRODUCING ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREAFTER...A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...AND SHOULD
AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MUCH OF SATURDAY. THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
AN ADDITIONAL EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FA DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AND IF SO...
LATER FORECASTS WILL NEED TO RAMP UP THE AMOUNT OF ACTIVE WEATHER
IN THE GRIDS AND PRODUCTS. AN OVERALL DRIER...MORE STABLE AND
SAHARAN DUST SHROUDED AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE ACROSS SW PR WHICH MAY AFFECT THE VICINITY OF TJMZ BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO IT WAS KEPT OUT OF THE TAF. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS...DECREASING DURING
THE NIGHT. SAHARAN DUST IS DECREASING AND PASSING SHRA MAY RETURN
TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS IN AND
AROUND TIST...TISX..TNCM...AND TKPK.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6
FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
AND PROBABLY BEYOND. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN OFF SHORE WATERS AND THE MONA PASSAGE
TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 78 91 / 40 40 50 50
STT 79 89 79 89 / 40 30 50 50

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Tropical Activiy

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 21N22W
TO 15N21W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. A LARGE AREA OF DUST SURROUNDING
THE WAVE HAS DAMPENED MOST OF THE MOISTURE SIGNAL NEAR THE AXIS
AS SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THERE IS A MOISTURE
SURGE WELL W OF THE WAVE...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THE
CURRENT POSITION AND NOT A POSITION FARTHER W. THE DUST IS
CURRENTLY LIMITING CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N50W TO 11N49W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE
WAVE LIES ON THE W SIDE OF A SURFACE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A SMALL AREA OF
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-14N BETWEEN 49W-50W.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 24N80W TO 16N80W
MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN CARIBBEAN. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS HELPING
FLARE UP CONVECTION OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND NEAR THE WAVE. IT
IS HARD TO SAY WHETHER IT IS RELATED MOST TO THE WAVE OR DAYTIME
HEATING AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. REGARDLESS...A CLUSTER OF
STRONG CONVECTION IS ACROSS CUBA W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 22N-24N
BETWEEN 80W-82W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 80W-86W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CONVECTION
IN THE W ATLC IS FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE WAVE AND WILL BE
DISCUSSED IN THE CARIBBEAN SECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
SENEGAL AT 14N17W CONTINUING S OF THE TROPICAL WAVE TO NEAR
12N27W 9N38W 10N48W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 10N48W CONTINUING TO
7N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 19W-24W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 32W-44W...AND FROM 7N-10N
BETWEEN 48W-53W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN YUCATAN PENINSULA IS SUPPORTING
STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NRN CENTRAL AMERICA
INCLUDING BELIZE...GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...AND NRN NICARAGUA. A
STRONG CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO OVER WRN CUBA
WITH SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS
POSSIBLY TIED TO A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W. SEE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE E PACIFIC
MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS S OF BOTH COUNTRIES TO A 1008 MB LOW
OVER NRN COLOMBIA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS
EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS
ALSO PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. TRADEWIND FLOW OF
20-25 KTS IS PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH LIGHTER
WINDS TO EITHER SIDE. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE
MOVING WWD FURTHER INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. MOIST CONDITIONS WILL
BE LIKELY ACROSS THIS AREA.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
936 PM AST TUE JUL 17 2012

.UPDATE...MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHEAST HAS ADDED TO THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AND MORE IS EXPECTED LATER AS SURFACE HIGH
PUMPS AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT TOWARD
THE ISLANDS. HAVE RAISED THE FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO
WHERE MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN LANDING AND RADAR SHOWS MORE
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE SEEN
IN THE SAN JUAN AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED PROGRESSION OF TROUGHS
AND WAVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM THIS AFTERNOON`S DISCUSSION.
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHEAST MAY HELP INCREASE SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WINDS BETWEEN 5 AND 15 KFT ARE STILL BRISK REACHING 25
KNOTS IN THE HIGHER PART OF THE LAYER AND THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS
AMOUNTS FAIRLY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK INDUCED TROUGH APPROACHES TO THE LOCAL
AREA...BUT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FRESH NORTHEASTERLY
TRADES WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SHRA ACROSS THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE
ISLANDS. SAHARAN DUST CONCENTRATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
ACROSS THE LOCAL DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.Yes,rain is expected from today thru at least Friday in the Eastern Caribbean islands so prepare for this period.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
444 AM AST WED JUL 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TUTT WITH MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS SPREAD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS...
AND YET ANOTHER ACROSS HISPANIOLA WHICH EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC. TUTT INDUCED LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH/EASTERLY PERTURBATION
WITH AXIS JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS AIDING IN CREATING A
PREVAILING MODERATE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MODERATE TO FAIRLY STRONG EASTERLY TRADES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NOW NEAR 52 WEST IS STILL FORECAST
TO CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PREVAILING NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
PATCHES OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST COAST OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WERE BEING ENHANCED DUE TO THE PROXIMITY
OF THE TUTT. CLOUDINESS AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
AND DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS OVER ISOLATED SPOTS IN CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
AND THE WEST SECTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY EXPECT SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS
IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE...FOLLOWED BY A SURGE
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING AND TRAILING THE TROPICAL WAVE THROUGH
A LEAST FRIDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGEST AN EASTERLY WIND
SURGE OF 20 TO 25 KTS AT THE SURFACE...QUICKLY TRAILING THE WAVE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ACCOMPANYING A DRIER AIR MASS WHICH IS SO FAR EXPECTED
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. OVERALL THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AGAIN
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THESE EASTERLY PERTURBATIONS/TROPICAL
WAVES ACTUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO MAKE
THE USUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST GRIDS OVER TIME. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION AND RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE SO FAR NOT EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... EXCEPT FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SOME ENHANCED CONVECTION IN ISOLATED SPOTS DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OT THE TUTT...ALONG WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK INDUCED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...BUT ONLY BRIEF PERIODS ON MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
FRESH NORTHEASTERLY TRADES WILL BRING OCCASIONAL SHRA ACROSS THE WINDWARD
SIDE OF THE ISLANDS. SAHARAN DUST CONCENTRATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
ACROSS THE LOCAL DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 79 / 40 60 60 50
STT 90 80 89 81 / 40 60 60 40

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W FROM 12N TO
19N. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS IN THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 20W AND 26W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N53W 10N51W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 10N51W 14N54W 18N57W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W FROM 16N IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
CENTER COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH
OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 82W. PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED IN THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. IT IS NOT EASY TO FIND PRECIPITATION THAT
IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO ONLY THE TROPICAL WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN COASTAL SENEGAL...
NEAR THE BORDER WITH GAMBIA...NEAR 14N17W...TO 12N23W 12N28W
AND 10N34W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N34W TO 5N42W AND 4N47W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N
BETWEEN 32W AND 38W...DISORGANIZED AND ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND SOUTH AMERICA.

[msbee]

CROWNWEATHER says: "Tropical Atlantic Is A Barren Oceanscape With No Development Expected For At Least The Next Two Weeks"

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

[cycloneye]

CROWNWEATHER says: "Tropical Atlantic Is A Barren Oceanscape With No Development Expected For At Least The Next Two Weeks"

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

Good morning Barbara. In part is not a surprise because normally July is not a busy month in terms of having many Tropical Developments.However,we are going to enter the most active period of the Hurricane season in August and by then is when we really have to watch what is going on to our east to see if the islands are going to have threats in the August/September/First two weeks of October peak of season.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE ERN TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS
ANALYZED FROM 19N29W TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS NEAR 13N28W.
LIMITED MOISTURE SURROUNDS THE WAVE AXIS ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY...AS A LAYER OF DRY/SAHARAN AIR CONTINUES TO
OVERTAKE THE WAVE. THEREFORE...ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
CONFINED TO THE EXTREME SRN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS ATTACHED TO
THE MONSOON TROUGH.

TROPICAL WAVE IS HEADING TOWARDS THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N55W TO 11N54W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE
PRECEDES A NARROW SURGE OF MOISTURE NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY WITH LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY DUE TO SAHARAN DUST
AROUND THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IMPACTING THE ERN COASTAL WATERS AND INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
23N84W TO 16N85W MOVING W AT ABOUT 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS W OF 85W TO INLAND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS THE NRN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS WEST AFRICA...PASSING
THROUGH DAKAR SENEGAL TO 12N21W 12N30W 11N36W TO 8N43W...WHERE
THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 9N50W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA NEAR
8N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN
30W-40W AND FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 22W-28W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TWO MAIN AREAS OF ACTIVE WEATHER ARE FOUND OVER THE FAR NW
AND SW CORNERS OF THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL WAVE IS
APPROACHING THE ERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS W OF 85W TO INLAND ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS THE NRN YUCATAN
PENINSULA...PROVIDING FURTHER LIFTING AND INSTABILITY ACROSS
THIS AREA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS S OF 11N W OF 77W ASSOCIATED TO
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS NRN COLOMBIA TO THE SRN
COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA AND WRN COSTA RICA. THE REMAINDER OF
THE DISCUSSION AREA IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER ASSOCIATED TO AN
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NE OF PUERTO
RICO NEAR 21N64W. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS GUSTING TO
NEAR GALE FORCE CRITERIA OVER THE NRN COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA.

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. The umbrellas should be on hand for the next three days as trough combined with Tropical Wave will cause plenty of rain for the Eastern Caribbean.,so prepare for this rather wet period.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
401 PM AST WED JUL 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT AXIS WILL REMAIN LOCATED NORTH THROUGH NORTHWEST
OF THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A WEAK INDUCED LOW
TO MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND TROUGH LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER AND
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THEN AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE TUTT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN A PRETTY DECENT
LOCATION TO AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AT
THE SAME TIME...A WEAK INDUCED LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING AND WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. A SECOND TUTT INDUCED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE WILL PASS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...PRODUCING
ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER...A
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AFFECT
THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.
THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN AN ADDITIONAL
EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AN OVERALL DRIER...MORE STABLE AND
SAHARAN DUST SHROUDED AIR MASS IS STILL EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6
FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
AND PROBABLY BEYOND. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 79 89 / 60 60 50 50
STT 80 89 81 90 / 60 60 40 40

[Gustywind]

:rain:

Good afternoon. The umbrellas should be on hand for the next three days as trough combined with Tropical Wave will cause plenty of rain for the Eastern Caribbean.,so prepare for this rather wet period.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
401 PM AST WED JUL 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT AXIS WILL REMAIN LOCATED NORTH THROUGH NORTHWEST
OF THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A WEAK INDUCED LOW
TO MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND TROUGH LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER AND
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND THEN AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE TUTT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN A PRETTY DECENT
LOCATION TO AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AT
THE SAME TIME...A WEAK INDUCED LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING AND WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. A SECOND TUTT INDUCED TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE WILL PASS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...PRODUCING
ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER...A
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AFFECT
THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.
THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN AN ADDITIONAL
EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AN OVERALL DRIER...MORE STABLE AND
SAHARAN DUST SHROUDED AIR MASS IS STILL EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE
LOCAL AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6
FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
AND PROBABLY BEYOND. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 79 89 / 60 60 50 50
STT 80 89 81 90 / 60 60 40 40

I will be prepared Cycloneye , i hope for that even if conditions seems fairly calm in Guadeloupe for the moment. Let's wait and see.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012


BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ADJUSTED FARTHER W TO ALIGN WITH A WEAK 1014 MB
SURFACE LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AT 12N33W. THE
WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 18N33W. DUE TO THE
APPEARANCE OF THE LOW IT IS HARD TO DETERMINE THE CURRENT MOTION
OF THE WAVE...BUT IT IS LIKELY AROUND 10-15 KT TO THE W. A LARGE
AREA OF SAHARAN DUST SURROUNDS THE WAVE TO THE N AND IS LIMITING
CONVECTION NEAR IT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE
LOW CENTER AND TO THE W. THE CONVECTION TO THE W WILL BE
DESCRIBED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH SECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N58W TO 12N55W MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT.
THE WAVE LIES ON THE W SIDE OF A TILTED SURGE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...WHICH
EXPLAINS THE TILT OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 57W-60W.

TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 23N86W TO
16N87W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND HAS NOW SHIFTED ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND GULF OF MEXICO.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY W OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 87W-91W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS TO
THE S COVERING HONDURAS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NW YUCATAN
IS ALSO ENHANCING SOME OF THIS CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
SENEGAL AT 15N17W CONTINUING TO A 1014 MB LOW AT 12N33W...AND
ALONG 8N40W 9N49W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 9N49W CONTINUING TO 9N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN
23W-27W...AND FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 35W-44W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NRN YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVE JUST E OF THE PENINSULA IS SUPPORTING STRONG
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NRN CENTRAL AMERICA
INCLUDING BELIZE...GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS S OF
BOTH COUNTRIES TO A 1008 MB LOW OVER NRN COLOMBIA. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. THE
ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA IS TIED TO A MOSTLY DRY UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR THE SW SIDE OF THE ISLAND. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND THE UPPER
LOW OVER HISPANIOLA. A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS ALSO
PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. TRADEWIND FLOW OF
20-25 KTS IS PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH LIGHTER
WINDS TO EITHER SIDE. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE
MOVING WWD OUT OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. MOIST CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
838 PM AST WED JUL 18 2012

.UPDATE...WEAK TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
SHOULD MOVE INTO PUERTO RICO AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH INCREASED
SHOWERS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM. THE TROPICAL WAVE
WHICH IS FOLLOWING CLOSELY APPEARS TO BE ACCELERATED BY THE
WIND SURGE BEHIND IT...AND HAS BROKEN FREE OF ITS ATTACHMENT TO
THE ITCZ TO THE SOUTHEAST. IT IS TIMED TO MOVE INTO PUERTO RICO
AFTER 19/18Z. THE 19/00Z SOUNDING WAS SOMEWHAT DRY BY TROPICAL
STANDARDS BUT IS INDICATIVE OF THE DRIER AIR AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WILL AFFECT THE
LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK AFT 19/08Z...SPREADING
OVER USVI AFT 19/13Z AND OVER PR BTWN 19/15Z AND 19/23Z. MVFR/IFR
CONDS ARE POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHRA/TSRA. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PR IN THE AFTERNOON. DEEP
EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WIND
SPEEDS AT THE SFC WILL RANGE BTWN 15 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
UP TO 30 KTS NEAR SHRA/TSRA.

[Gustywind]

Hi my friends . Given our pro mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe, the twave continues to cross Guadeloupe this morning. Yesterday night they reported between 5 and 40 mm of water and also strong gusts of 60 to 70 km/h, mainly to Marie-Galante and la Désirade. Weather is a grey, wind is calm for the moment. We should deal with rainy episodes today, we will see.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Is starting to rain in PR as trough combines with the Tropical Wave.Let's see how much rain falls in the next 24-48 hours.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
319 AM AST THU JUL 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT AXIS AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CENTERS EXTENDS
NORTHWEST TO WEST OF THE REGION FROM THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE ALOFT EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES THEN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN
WILL HELP MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY AND SOMEWHAT DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...
AS THE TUTT WILL SHIFTS FURTHER WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...
AND THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS
NOW CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION JUST NORTH AND TRAILING THE
WAVE AXIS WHICH WAS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. LATEST
SAHARAN AIR LAYER ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE WAVE IS AN EXTENSIVE SAHARAN AIR LAYER
WITH HIGH CONCENTRATION OF DUST PARTICULATES SPREAD ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS EXTENDS EASTWARD ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE
COAST OF AFRICA. EARLIER ASCAT PASS 19/01Z ALSO INDICATED A WIND
SURGE OF 20 TO 25 KTS ALONG 40/41W WITHIN THE SAL AND TRAILING THE
TROPICAL WAVE. THIS SURGE INITIALIZED WELL WITH GFS MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH SUGGESTED EASTERLY JET WITH A MAX WIND SPEED IN SAME LOCATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED QUICK PASSING SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN PATCHES OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS JUST AHEAD OF THE
SWATH OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW CROSSING THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THROUGH OUT THE DAY EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS WITH INCREASING CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLANDS
AND SURROUNDING WATERS...AS THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
WILL QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THRU AT LEAST FRIDAY. IN
ADDITION...MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT WILL ALSO AID IN
CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE TUTT PULLS FURTHER
WEST SUPPORTING A DIFFLUENT PATTERN. THIS ALONG WITH INCREASING SURGE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERLY
WIND SURGE OF 20 TO 25 KTS OR SO WILL TRAIL THE WAVE AND MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PRECEDING A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
MASS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY FILTER IN DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. AGAIN THE ACTUAL
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. STILL EXPECT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY TO LINGER TO ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY. PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ENHANCED TUTT INDUCED CONVECTION
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS CAN HOWEVER BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS ACCOMPANYING THE TROPICAL WAVE...AS WELL AS THE WIND SURGE
WHICH WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW. NAAPS AEROSOL MODEL SUGGEST A HIGH INFLUX
OF SAHARAN DUST BY SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALSO
PLAY A ROLE IN LIMITING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. THEREFORE WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR CLOSELY AND ADJUST OVERALL WEATHER AND POPS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS DEPENDING ON HOW THE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO
UNFOLD.

&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE
WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK UNTIL
19/15Z...SPREADING OVER USVI AFT 19/08Z AND OVER PR BTW 19/15Z AND
19/23Z. MVFR/IFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHRA/TSRA. MOUNTAIN TOP
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PR IN THE
AFTERNOON. DEEP EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS AT THE SFC WILL RANGE BTW 15 TO 20 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS NEAR SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 79 88 78 / 60 50 60 50
STT 88 81 89 80 / 50 50 50 40

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 19 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W FROM 12N TO
19N. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS IN THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N62W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...15N60W...
AND 11N57W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS ON TOP OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS
BETWEEN 60W AND 63W FROM SAINT VINCENT NEAR 13N TO 16N NEAR
GUADELOUPE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 62W AND
65W...FROM ANTIGUA/BARBUDA TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL/COASTAL GAMBIA
NEAR 14N17W...12N28W AND 10N34W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N34W
TO 5N41W AND 4N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 42W AND 48W...DISORGANIZED AND
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 60W.

[cycloneye]

Note= A mild quake occured just NE of PR early this morning. See all the information at the Caribbean Seismic Activity thrread at Geology forum.

viewtopic.php?f=67&t=107389&hilit=&p=2240210#p2240210