Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

[cycloneye]

For the past 48 hours,convection has been somewhat persistant in this area and a Tropical Wave has been analized close to the area at the 12z TAFB analysis. Let's see what occurs with this down the road. Maybe a circle by NHC soon?

[canes04]

Luis,

I have been watching this area since last night and was just getting ready to start a new topic on it.
There seems to be slight turning near 11 & 34. At least it's something to watch.

[cycloneye]

Interesting pass to say the least made at 10:09 AM EDT.

[cycloneye]

Anything of significance in the 2 PM discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE ERN TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS
ANALYZED FROM 19N29W TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS NEAR 13N28W.
LIMITED MOISTURE SURROUNDS THE WAVE AXIS ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY...AS A LAYER OF DRY/SAHARAN AIR CONTINUES TO
OVERTAKE THE WAVE. THEREFORE...ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
CONFINED TO THE EXTREME SRN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS ATTACHED TO
THE MONSOON TROUGH.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS WEST AFRICA...PASSING
THROUGH DAKAR SENEGAL TO 12N21W 12N30W 11N36W TO 8N43W...WHERE
THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 9N50W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA NEAR
8N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN
30W-40W AND FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 22W-28W.

[canes04]

RAMSDIS is watching it, Floater up.

[Frank2]

Interesing QuikScat pass - we'll see what happens...

[canes04]

The NHC should mentioned this area at 8pm or 2am tonight.

[cycloneye]

TAFB at the 18z Surface Analysis adds a weak low to the map.



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[floridasun78]

not thing about area on 8pm outlook it look like their think sal will kill it soon

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

IMO,they are waiting to see more convection persistance,see how the enviromental conditions will be downstream and see if the models are enthusiastic in future runs.

[cycloneye]

8 PM Discussion of Wave/Low.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ADJUSTED FARTHER W TO ALIGN WITH A WEAK 1014 MB
SURFACE LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AT 12N33W. THE
WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 18N33W. DUE TO THE
APPEARANCE OF THE LOW IT IS HARD TO DETERMINE THE CURRENT MOTION
OF THE WAVE...BUT IT IS LIKELY AROUND 10-15 KT TO THE W. A LARGE
AREA OF SAHARAN DUST SURROUNDS THE WAVE TO THE N AND IS LIMITING
CONVECTION NEAR IT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE
LOW CENTER AND TO THE W. THE CONVECTION TO THE W WILL BE
DESCRIBED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH SECTION.

[wxman57]

Development chances very poor. If it survives the massive SAL outbreak all around it (http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitE.jpg) then it will reach the Caribbean and experience 30-50kts of shear.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

IMO,they are waiting to see more convection persistance,see how the enviromental conditions will be downstream and see if the models are enthusiastic in future runs.

Just a question Cycloneye what is the meaning of IMO ? I always wonder but i don't have fuel sense of this expression. Can you explain, thanks to you

[cycloneye]

Just a question Cycloneye what is the meaning of IMO ? I always wonder but i don't have fuel sense of this expression. Can you explain, thanks to you

Is Off-Topic but I will answer. IMO means in my opinion.

[OURAGAN]

Favorable for tropical cyclone formation in this area:

[cycloneye]

Well,the Sal in MDR and Shear when (if) gets to Caribbean may be the main unfavorable factors, but in it's favor right now it has a nice anticyclone overhead.

[Gustywind]

Just a question Cycloneye what is the meaning of IMO ? I always wonder but i don't have fuel sense of this expression. Can you explain, thanks to you

Is Off-Topic but I will answer. IMO means in my opinion.

Oh excuse me, i forget that Cycloneye! Thanks to you, that was that, simply but really efficient

[floridasun78]

issue is big sal ahead of it that sal going move over fl by next wed

[CrazyC83]

If this survives though, it might ultimately become an EPAC issue.

[KatDaddy]

Looks to bring some rains to the Antilles.