2012 WPAC season

[euro6208]

interesting times. if both Vicente and Saola ever do emerge in the coming days, that would be a big catch up for the first 2 weeks of july with no activity.

it'll be interesting to track Vicente as it was submitted by our islands (Guam & CNMI). it is a chamorro's man name...the last time it was used was in 2005 for a weak tropical storm that formed in the south china sea that made landfall in vietnam...

[cycloneye]

The forecast is for thw WPAC to stay active for the next two weeks.



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /ghazards/

[Typhoon Hunter]

Latest GFS 00z run develops a potent storm west of Guam which tracks over Okinawa then into E China. In the long range but worth keeping an eye on to see if a trend emerges!

[euro6208]

now the mjo is forecast to reach the west pacific sooner...

[dexterlabio]

looks like an active phase of the typhoon season next month with the predicted strengthening of the MJO coming to the WPAC throughout August.



Euro now suggesting cyclone genesis by the end of July, could this mean the start of increasing activity next month?

[euro6208]

looks like hong kong might see a very powerful typhoon yet again on the heels of typhoon vicente. note east of luzon philippines is a very large tropical cyclone in the first week of august...

[euro6208]

very active period for our area with multiple hits from tropical cyclones

Week 1: Enhanced convection and warmer-than-normal SSTs support elevated chances for tropical cyclone development in the western Pacific.

Week 2: Above-normal rainfall is expected to continue across the Philippines, western Pacific, and may extend north to South Korea and southern Japan depending on the track of expected tropical cyclone activity. Elevated chances for tropical cyclone development are forecast in the South China Sea and western Pacific.

all of this in response to a weak mjo over the maritime continent and possibly shifting to the western pacific...



let the mayhem begin!

[Typhoon Hunter]

Interesting times ahead for sure Euro, I think 93W will be the next big player, especially since many models hinting at it making landfall somewhere between Okinawa and N Luzon. I think the action will shift closer to you in Guam in the 'ber months! Especially October onwards!

[euro6208]

Interesting times ahead for sure Euro, I think 93W will be the next big player, especially since many models hinting at it making landfall somewhere between Okinawa and N Luzon. I think the action will shift closer to you in Guam in the 'ber months! Especially October onwards!

now that would be exciting

[euro6208]

while dry air surrounds the atlantic and east pacific/central pacific, the west pacific is enjoying no dry air...looks like a very favorable environment...

[euro6208]

looks like euro is developing triplets

[Typhoon Hunter]

If that next storm forms which ECM is showing will certainly help the numbers game. Currently 2 ahead of average at the moment!

[euro6208]

If that next storm forms which ECM is showing will certainly help the numbers game. Currently 2 ahead of average at the moment!

wow! triplets for sure...saola right into taiwan and possibly eastern china...damrey hitting north of shanghai...and soon *haikui* passing north of okinawa and stalling in the east china sea...all 3 intensifying too...

[euro6208]

crazy run from euro...it seems like mother nature is mad at china and it's major cities!

First, category 4 vicente rapidly intensifies and hits south west of macao/hongkong...

Second, saola is barreling down on taiwan and eastern china (category 3 maybe soon?)

Third, Damrey is expected to hit east of beijing possibly as a tropical storm or even typhoon

and now, our next tropical cyclone is expected to hit south of shanghai as a tropical storm but is long range...

millions and millions of people will be affected and i didn't even include many more mega cities! i'm just familiar with the above cities

[dexterlabio]

northwestern pacific looks so cloudy with our 2 TC's and an invest. MJO at work.

[euro6208]

During Week-1, the weak MJO signal and ongoing tropical cyclones increase chances for rainfall in the upper tercile across eastern China, Taiwan, and the western Pacific. Enhanced convection and warmer-than-normal SSTs support elevated chances for tropical cyclone development in the western Pacific.

The week-2 outlook is more uncertain due to a continued weak MJO signal. Above-normal rainfall and elevated odds for tropical cyclone development are expected to continue across the western Pacific.

[euro6208]

looks like euro is developing another tropical cyclone right behind Invest 99W or Northeast of guam then develops very slowly north of wake island ...

[euro6208]

forecast for august 6...4 tropical cyclones in the west pacific and 1 in the central pacific...looks like a very very active west pacific with more landfalls coming...

it's a shame or rather an embarassment that the west pacific with all of these powerful typhoons and many activity every year has no recon ( with many of them making landfall over very populated areas) while one basin occasional has only 1 or 2 major hurricane but with recon...

[euro6208]

Twitter:

Ryan N. Maue ‏@RyanMaue
If GFS pans out, JTWC will be dealing with 5 more named tropical storms in the next 8-days. Binary & triples

euro still showring haikui developing into a powerful monster typhoon while 90W (currently active) forecast to strengthen to a typhoon and yet another system, north of guam, according to euro will also develop into a typhoon...crazy...

[euro6208]

Final Update from Tropical Storm Risk for 2012 http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com

August Update- 27/17/9

same from last month so a super season is still forecast...



There is a 46% probability that the 2012 NW Pacific typhoon season ACE index will be above-average
(defined as an ACE index value in the upper tercile historically (>336)), a 40% likelihood it will be nearnormal (defined as an ACE index value in the middle tercile historically (235 to 336) and only a 14%
chance it will be below-normal (defined as an ACE index value in the lower tercile historically (<235))