now at 45 knots 1 min and forecast to be near typhoon strength by the time of landfall. Guandong province and her 100 million inhabitants
surely will get impacted from this...
WTPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (VICENTE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 19.4N 115.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4N 115.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 19.8N 114.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 20.3N 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 20.8N 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 21.0N 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 21.3N 106.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 21.6N 103.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 115.2E.
TROPICAL STORM 09W (VICENTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
220000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND
230300Z.//
NNNN
WDPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (VICENTE) WARNING
NR 06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 09W (VICENTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SECTORS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON A 212250Z WINDSAT CORIOLIS 37 GHZ IMAGE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED HIGHER THAN THE
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25-35 KNOTS FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND
KNES DUE TO THE OBJECTIVE 211900Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 42 KNOTS AND
DEEP CONVECTIVE SPIRAL BAND CURVATURE OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE
OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SMALL
ANTICYCLONE BUILDING JUST NORTH THE LLCC, SUPPORTING THE EQUATORIAL
VENTING OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, INDUCED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING
EXISTS BETWEEN THIS SMALLER ANTICYCLONE AND A POINT SOURCE OF
DIVERGENCE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM WHICH IS INDUCING UPPER-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE EAST OF THE LLCC. TS 09W IS CURRENTLY BEING
STEERED BY THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A ZONAL DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED OVER EASTERN ASIA AND IS UNDER
MODERATE 15-20 KNOT EASTERLY VWS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS VICENTE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS UNDER
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY THE STEERING STR FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE RECENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS MOTION IS DUE TO THE
INCREASED INTENSITY OF TS 09W WHICH ALLOWS THE SYSTEM TO SLIGHTLY
WEAKEN THE RIDGE PERIPHERY VIA BETA-EFFECT PROPAGATION. TS 09W
SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN CONSISTENT, IF NOT BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER, DURING THE
NEXT 36-48 HOURS. BY TAU 48 THE LLCC WILL ENCOUNTER COMPETING
INFLUENCES FROM LAND INTERACTION WITH THE COASTLINE WEST OF THE
LUICHOW PENINSULA AND WARM SST (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE GULF OF
TONKIN BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN STRONG TS STRENGTH AS IT
APPROACHES NORTHERN VIETNAM BY TAU 72.
C. TS 09W SHOULD DISSIPATE OVERLAND BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE TRACK
TRAJECTORY BUT THE NOGAPS, GFDN, JGSM, AND WBAR SEEM TOO SLOW IN
TRACK SPEED FOR THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT. DESPITE THESE TRANSLATION
SPEED DISCREPANCIES, HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE OFFICIAL JTWC
TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE WELL ESTABLISHED SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT AS
ANALYZED FROM THE 211200Z UPPER-LEVEL SOUNDINGS IN THE AREA.//
NNNN
