WPAC: SAOLA - Post-Tropical

[Meow]

In fact, the JMA reported faster than the U.S. Navy this time.



WWJP25 RJTD 221200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 221200.
...
SUMMARY.
...
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 09N 140E ALMOST STATIONARY.
...

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[Meow]

ABPW10 PGTW 230200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/230200Z-230600ZJUL2012//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221951ZJUL2012//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 221800Z, TROPICAL STORM 09W (VICENTE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 19.2N 114.7E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG, AND HAS
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 65 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 222100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.7N 138.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SOUTH OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION OVER A DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE DISTURBANCE LIES TO THE SOUTH OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF MODERATE DIVERGENCE AND
LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A 222306Z 85 GHZ TRMM
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SCATTERED AND DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANTS OF THE LLCC. A
222343Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH 10 KNOTS
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM AND A FEW 15 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED AREA IN PARA 1.A.(1) AND
ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AS A LOW.//
NNNN

[Meow]

WWJP25 RJTD 230000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 230000.
...
SUMMARY.
...
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 07N 140E ALMOST STATIONARY.
...

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[Meow]

WWJP25 RJTD 231200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 231200.
...
SUMMARY.
...
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 06N 139E ALMOST STATIONARY.
...

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[dexterlabio]

also has considerable model support. Euro also hinting on its development for at least 2 runs now and shows it following the path of Typhoon Vicente.

[euro6208]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
854 PM CHST MON JUL 23 2012

PMZ161-171-232300-
KOROR PALAU-YAP-
854 PM CHST MON JUL 23 2012

CORRECTED EXPIRATION TIME

...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED 285 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KOROR...

AT 830 PM CHST...THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE...INVEST AREA 93W...WAS
CENTERED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR NEAR 6 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
135 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE. THIS IS ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF KOROR AND ABOUT 320 MILES SOUTHWEST OF YAP. THE CENTER OF 93W IS
MOVING VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DISSIPATE ACROSS PALAU...
BUT MORE ACTIVE CONVECTION IS FOUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF YAP STATE...
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF 93W. WINDS ACROSS THIS AREA WILL
AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH NEAR SHOWERS.

OPEN-OCEAN SEAS ACROSS THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND YAP STATE OF 3
TO 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HAZARDOUS SURF IS NOT
EXPECTED.

THIS IS THE LAST STATEMENT THAT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE ON THIS DISTURBANCE. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AND PROVIDE UPDATES IF NEEDED.
REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FZPQ52
PGUM FOR DETAILS ON EXPECTED WEATHER FOR KOROR PALAU AND YAP.

$$

AYDLETT

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.7N 138.6E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.3N 136.6E, APPROXIMATELY 165 NM SOUTHEAST OF
PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A REGION OF
BROAD CONVECTION AND A LACK OF CONSOLIDATED ORGANIZATION WITHIN THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AXIS, IN AN AREA OF MODERATE DIVERGENCE AND LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A 222306Z 85 GHZ TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
SCATTERED AND DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANTS OF THE LLCC. A 222343Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS
SHOWS AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH 10 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM
AND A FEW 15 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Models are still being agressive with this system, here is my latest video on it actually. I show GFS and NOGAPS in here and talk about the warm sea surface temperatures are above average. Lots of fuel for it to grow.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=EX_7RBa4Vdw[/youtube]

[Typhoon Hunter]

Great video as always Rob - NGPs and UKMET both very aggressive with this system and they're normally the more conservative models when it comes to strength! ECM still being a bit slow, it's not been performing great this season with tropical development so my money's with the GFS (12z) UKMET and NGPs model group!

[RobWESTPACWX]

On that note discuss this, Invest 93W, thoughts analysis where is it going and who will be effected. I would love to hear everyones mind on this.

[dexterlabio]

i dont know when to rely on Euro nowadays. but in all fairness they had Vicente's track right first over other models. The initial forecast track of Euro on Vicente was for it to come very close to HK whilst other models had it going towards Taiwan. BUT they seem to keep systems weak and depict slower development in their runs recently. And as always, when Euro fails, I'd go with GFS or NOGAPS solution.



Euro still shows this following the track of Vicente towards Southern China plus another system to the east. Whatever track it goes, im thinking this could be another major storm after Vicente, maybe even stronger, given the high SST's and the MJO now on the Maritime Continent-Western Pacific, bringing more favorable conditions for TC development across the area.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org.

[euro6208]

very deep convection

[dexterlabio]

lol i dont think i can take the 18z run from euro this time. i see some kind of a fujiwara setup because of the other system they see to develop along with this...fujiwara is difficult to predict, at times you just dont expect it to happen then it happens.

[phwxenthusiast]

you mean 12z??EURO doesnt have 18z runs AFAIK
Anyway yeah at least 93W is getting support from the Euro this time...

[dexterlabio]

yeah i mean 12z. i look at both Euro 12z and GFS 18z runs early in the morning so i had the 2 messed up. lol.

speaking of GFS, interestingly they show almost the same scenario as Euro is showing in their latest run. if that "other system" develops, it might keep this invest away from tracking west and may as well hinder much intensification. looking forward to see the next run from GFS and Euro.

[Typhoon Hunter]

12z and 18z GFS shows are sharp step to the west, been showing something like this for a few days now. Will check full run to see if it's in response to the STR building in or Fujiwhara with another storm. I damn hate Fujiwhara interaction, makes things far too complicated lol

This next storm could be a real howler going by latest model intensity forecasts.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[RobWESTPACWX]

The PI is already being in-directly impacted by this as the enhanced monsoon continues to hit the area. Here is the radar out of the country.

http://noah.dost.gov.ph/

[RobWESTPACWX]

Here is some of the models from this mornings 00z run.

[img] http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/em ... single.png[/img]

[RobWESTPACWX]

PW10 PGTW 260600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/260600Z-270600ZJUL2012//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.3N 131.6E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 130.9E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM NORTHWEST OF
PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION HAS
BEEN SLOWLY COALESCING AROUND A BROAD UNORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 260022Z ASCAT PASS INDICATED THE LLCC
HAS MOVED NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS. THE LLCC REMAINS
LOCATED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS
MOVING TOWARDS AN AXIS OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS)
WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST
OF GUAM IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE EASTERLY OUTFLOW. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GRADUAL CONSOLIDATION OF THIS LLCC AS IT TRACKS
IN A GENERALLY POLEWARD DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLOGENESIS RANGING FROM 28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. BASED ON THE PERSISTENT
CONVECTION, WARM SSTS, AND INCREASING OUTFLOW CHANNELS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[RobWESTPACWX]

Check this link out, after we pear through the over cast cloud tops it seems there is a defined circulation here.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... .63pc.html