Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean

[Ivanhater]

Looks impressive. Actually, the Euro keeps a strong vorticity across the MDR and starts to develop around the Islands. Might just get something from this one

[Blown Away]

I think the 06z GFS develops it and then loses it just east of the islands? Looks good for now. Would be nice to get a CV system to track.

[SFLcane]

Wave looks impressive BUT still plenty of SAL all over the Atlantic. Models suggest a trof should be ready to scoop up what ever is out there. It's been the norm last few seasons with semi-permanent troffing ready to turns this things away from the U.S. one can hope that luck continues.

[ROCK]

looks good after splash down...usually they all poof.....might make it across...

[Aric Dunn]

Looking pretty decent for just coming off. just have to watch to see if the convection collapses or maintains.

[cycloneye]

So far looks good but let's see as it moves further away from the Continent how it does.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS develops and loses the low near the NE Caribbean at 192 hours, but looks like the energy moves towards Florida as the BH moves westward at 192 hours. GFS consistently showing a low moving across the Atlantic, but seems to dissipate near the islands.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

[Aric Dunn]

00z ukmet trying to develop something.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKTR ... kloop.html

[cycloneye]

No mention of this wave at 2 PM TWO. They are waiting to see how it does in the next 12-24 hours.

[cycloneye]

From the 2:05 PM EDT discussion:

A 1012 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ABOUT 90 NM OFF THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N17W. A WAVE AXIS WILL BE ADDED TO THIS
FEATURE AS MODEL AND SATELLITE DATA BECOME MORE CONCLUSIVE.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVER
THE AREA FROM 6N-16N BETWEEN THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AND 28W.

[cycloneye]

The San Juan NWS AFD of this afternoon paints a rather grim picture in terms of wave developing.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST TUE JUL 24 2012


NEXT SIG CHANCE OF RAINFALL DOES NOT LOOK UNTIL NEXT THU AUG 02 AS
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 20W REACHES THE LOCAL AREA. THIS IS THE BEST
WAVE THAT WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON AND IT APPEARS TO BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW PRES AREA AND FAIRLY DEEP CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...WAVE IS SURROUNDED BY LARGE AREA OF STABLE AIR COVERING
THE EASTERN ATLC. IN ADDITION...WAVE IS FCST TO ENCOUNTER A MORE
HOSTILE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ONCE IT NEARS THE LESSER ANTILLES
NEXT WEEK. SO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THIS WAVE WILL EVOLVE
WITH TIME BUT CURRENT WX PATTERN OF TUTT/SAL AND UNFVRBL
MJO/POSITIVE VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES DO NOT FAVOR MUCH CHANCE
OF DEVELOPMENT OR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS.

[Blown Away]

ECMWF keeps the low intact and curves away from the islands and the GFS dissipates the low as it nears the islands. At least it's something!

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Whether this survives past the islands or not, it will likely moisten up the atlantic pathway for the next system(s). Maybe this will help cut down the SAL influence for its followers.

[cycloneye]

From Tuesday afternoon Marine discussion.

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
HIGH PRES RIDGE N OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
FRESH-STRONG NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 68-82W THROUGH
THU NIGHT. THE LATEST GFS RUN FURTHER STRENGTHENS THE TRADES
ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA EARLY FRI HINTING AT MINIMAL
GALE FORCE. MAINTAINED ENE WINDS AT 30 KT MAX IN GRAPHIC PACKAGE
AS LATEST GFS REVERSED FROM A WEAKENING TO A STRENGTHENING TREND
AND OTHER GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE. A TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE W THROUGH THE W
CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE WED MOVE W OF THE AREA EARLY FRI THU. A
SECOND WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 65W WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PORTION WED-THU...AND THE W CARIBBEAN FRI-SAT. A
TROPICAL WAVE WELL E OF THE AREA WILL REACH ALONG 35W
FRI...ALONG 40W SAT...AND 45W SUN WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING LOW
PRES DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR AT ABOUT 12.5N ALONG THE WAVE AXIS
WITH THE LOW TRACKING WNW REACHING NEAR ABOUT 14N45W SUN.
BLENDED GFS AND ECMWF WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST.

[cycloneye]

8 PM Discussion.

A 1011 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ABOUT 180 NM OFF THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N19W MOVING W AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 19W-25W.

[MGC]

I would not write off this wave just because it is surrounded by dry air....I've seen plenty of these waves develope in near identical enviormental conditions....it just takes a while. It has a lot of water to cross....If you look at the latest full disk of Metrosat images, you will note a healthy progression of waves over the African continent...Cape Verde season has started!.....MGC

[northjaxpro]

I would not write off this wave just because it is surrounded by dry air....I've seen plenty of these waves develope in near identical enviormental conditions....it just takes a while. It has a lot of water to cross....If you look at the latest full disk of Metrosat images, you will note a healthy progression of waves over the African continent...Cape Verde season has started!.....MGC

Yeah, it is about that time for the Cape Verde train of waves to traverse across the tropical Atlantic. This current CV wave should do a lot to remove the SAL out there currently and it will pave the way for some of these waves to eventually develop as we head into August.

[Blown Away]

18z GFS carries the low across the Atlantic then dissipates the low but keeps the energy moving WNW over PR and towards the Bahamas. GFS seems to see shear or something to break it down near the Caribbean but carries the energy farther WNW than the 12z. Generally moving this wave over the NE Caribbean and is something to watch.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

[cycloneye]

ASCAT from 6:16 PM EDT shows a good circulation.

[SeminoleWind]

The one behind it don't look bad either