Global model runs discussion

[boca]

We might have something to talk about finally.

[cycloneye]

The GFS ensemble members are pretty active with African train.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

0Z GFS = Not good

[ROCK]

finally something to look at.....


looks warm out there.....http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[ROCK]

NOGAPS is all over it....


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[boca]

I smell fish but its way too early too since its still over Africa at this point.

[Kingarabian]

Trough is gonna dig soon enough for this one.

__________
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[NDG]

Lol, it has not not even eloped yet and may never develop, way too soon to say is going to be a fish.

[cycloneye]

The San Juan NWS says correctly that caution has to be used with this and I agree with NDG and them.From this morning's AFD.

THE
GFS IS CONTINUING TO SHOW WAVES ADVANCING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AT
THE PACE OF ONE EVERY 5 TO 5.5 DAYS. THE LAST ONE TO LEAVE AFRICA
ON SUNDAY...HAS BEEN SPINNING UP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
GFS AND WILL REACH 40 WEST BY 03/00Z AUGUST 2012 SHOULD THE MODEL
SOLUTION HOLD. AT THIS TIME DEVELOPMENT IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO MAKE
ANY DECISIONS. NEVERTHELESS PRELIMINARY ANNUAL PREPARATIONS FOR THE 2012
HURRICANE SEASON SHOULD BE NEAR COMPLETION.

[Ivanhater]

Trough is gonna dig soon enough for this one.

1. It is a model run 384 hours out
2. You have been around long enough on this board to know you need a disclaimer when making forecasts such as your statement above. Use it.

[ROCK]

Trough is gonna dig soon enough for this one.

1. It is a model run 384 hours out
2. You have been around long enough on this board to know you need a disclaimer when making forecasts such as your statement above. Use it.

the 06Z GFS has nada...probably come back though in the long range as we progress more and more into August.


what Trof will we see at 384hrs? there is only one thing we can be certain at 384hrs.....the sun will rise...

[Kingarabian]

Trough is gonna dig soon enough for this one.

1. It is a model run 384 hours out
2. You have been around long enough on this board to know you need a disclaimer when making forecasts such as your statement above. Use it.

True, hence its 384 hours out were all posting opinions on a global model thread. Nothing has developed yet and no specific thread has been made in regards to it, so I'm not really making a bold dangerous prediction. Heck, I barely post on Atlantic Hurricane threads, and I just sit and watch as I know they develop differently than the way Pacific Hurricanes do.

And you know if that's the case, then what if numerous graphics (No Disclaimers) being posted show no hurricanes in 120-384 hours affecting the Bahamas, but I leave on vacation to the Bahamas in 60 hours and @ 100 hours a hurricane hits.

Or what if numerous graphics (No Disclaimers) being posted show a hurricane threatening North Carolina, and I cancel my important business trip, but no hurricane develops.

Point is, either all posts on this thread need disclaimers not only mine, or they really don't need to have a disclaimer because this is a pure speculating/discussing thread about what the future holds and everyone should know to take everything with a grain of salt.

Now if this was a thread on something that IS forming then I obviously stand corrected. But I'll add it anyway. I know yall 'Atlanticans are itching for some beautiful harmful fish so hopefully some fish do form soon.

[wxman57]

As is typical of this time of the season, the models are starting to show stronger systems moving off the coast of Africa. I'm not sure that conditions in the MDR will be extremely favorable for development this year. We're going to have to watch for closer-in development. Next named storm could come from one of those disturbances moving off Africa in the next week or so.

With the "death ridge" out of the picture along the northern Gulf Coast this year (and with the very rainy July across SE TX), the region may be "open for business" as far as a potential hurricane impact in August or September.

Might be my last Friday vacation day coming up this week...

[cycloneye]

Compared with yesterday runs of GFS and ECMWF today's runs look very different. In other words, the waiting game will continue for now.

[Ntxw]

I have to concur with Wxman57. Models won't see true development until these waves make it to the Western Atlantic (if they survive) this season. Once there that's when the idea of home-brews continue. So just because they don't show anything organizing once off the African coast 300+ hrs out doesn't mean these waves won't develop down the road in closer range. Give it a week or two for them to cross the Atlantic.

[perk]

As is typical of this time of the season, the models are starting to show stronger systems moving off the coast of Africa. I'm not sure that conditions in the MDR will be extremely favorable for development this year. We're going to have to watch for closer-in development. Next named storm could come from one of those disturbances moving off Africa in the next week or so.

With the "death ridge" out of the picture along the northern Gulf Coast this year (and with the very rainy July across SE TX), the region may be "open for business" as far as a potential hurricane impact in August or September.

Might be my last Friday vacation day coming up this week...

This concerns me more(the development closer in)not alot of time to prepare,for those who are not.

[cycloneye]

Let's have soon something to track like a longtracker from CV area to be glued to computer.

[cycloneye]

The 12z Canadian has something trying to develop over CV islands at end of run.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[mcheer23]

Finally have something to watch!

[mcheer23]

12z CMC develops something at the end of the run

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation