Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning. That is the theme for today mainly in the NE Caribbean as the strong Tropical Wave moves thru. Let's hope that much needed rain falls in the islands that need it the most. But let's also watch invest 99L in the Eastern Atlantic in the next few days.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
555 AM AST MON JUL 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES THIS MORNING WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AFTER
THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA...LOCATED IN
THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS BY THE WEEKEND.



.DISCUSSION...BANDS OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF
AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE...HAVE BEEN AFFECTING PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
WESTWARD...AFFECTING MOST OF PUERTO RICO WITH FAST MOVING PASSING
SHOWERS THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AVAILABLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECT...PROMISE
TO BRING AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL AND THE MUNICIPALITIES OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. LATER
TONIGHT...THE ACTIVE WEATHER ASSOCIATE WITH THE WAVE...WILL MOVE
OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...BRINGING WITH
IT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
LATEST GFS90 MODEL RUN ACCUMULATIVE PRECIPITATION...INDICATED
BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO
AND OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LOCAL
EFFECTS...IN ADDITION TO THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE...PROMISE TO
BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF
THE WAVE LATE TUESDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP TROPICS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR THE LATER PART OF
THE WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A DRIER AIR MASS AT LOWER
LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT...PROG SOUNDINGS
INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE WILL GO AS HIGH AS 2.25 INCHES
BY TUESDAY...AND THEN WILL DROP TO NEAR 1.3 INCHES SUNDAY. IN THE LONG
TERM...COMPUTER MODELS INDICATED A SURFACE LOW LOCATED EARLY THIS
MORNING IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST
AND IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CARIBBEAN WATERS BY SUNDAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE MORE FREQUENT MVFR...WITH LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS...IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD ACROSS/DEVELOP OVER THE AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
DURING THE REST OF THE DAY...AND WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS
AND SEAS TO THE REGIONAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL GO
INTO EFFECT LATE TONIGHT FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 89 78 / 60 60 60 40
STT 89 80 89 80 / 60 60 60 50

[Gustywind]

Stu Ostro, Senior Meteorologist, The Weather Channel

Jul 30, 2012 1:37 am ET
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

ATLANTIC

- The strong tropical wave that's been moving westward across the tropical Atlantic the past few days since coming off the African coast is now bringing squally bands of showers across the Leeward Islands. Tropical cyclone development is not expected but the wave will continue to be accompanied by gusty winds and locally heavy rain as it heads to Puerto Rico and Hispaniola during the next couple days.

- Farther out in the Atlantic, convection in a portion of the "monsoon trough" is clustering and spinning at around 35W and 10N. It's possible that this feature further organizes as it moves west at a low enough latitude to avoid hostile atmospheric conditions farther north but far enough away from the equator to not preclude cyclone development. Some forecast model runs are bullish on this becoming Ernesto.

[Gustywind]

Since yesterday night 11pm, weather conditions have deteriorate in Guadeloupe. Nothing too bad, but he have some lightnings and rainshowers falling moderalety. Weather is grey and sad. Meteo-France Guadeloupe reported 10 to 50 millimeters of waters in some areas and gustywinds close to 76km/H.

[cycloneye]

Here is invest 99L in Atlantic. Let's watch it in the comming days as it may approach the islands by next weekend.

[Gustywind]

We're dealing with a bulk of heavy convection for those who live in Guadeloupe. Lightnings are making the show, rain is falling nicely.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Tropical Activity

[cycloneye]

These are the latest model tracks for invest 99L. For more information visit the Active Storms/Invests forum even though I will also be posting some here.

[cycloneye]

I consider important to post here the discussion by Dr Jeff Masters about 99L.

The first African tropical wave of 2012 with a potential to develop is Invest 99L, located in the Eastern Atlantic near 9°N 36°W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands and the coast of Africa. Visible satellite loops show a large area of the surrounding atmosphere has a pronounced counter-clockwise spin, though there is no surface circulation. The disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity is pretty sparse, but appears to be slowly increasing. Water vapor satellite loops show that 99L has a reasonably moist environment, and the latest Saharan air layer analysis shows that the dry air from the Sahara lies well to the north of 99L. WInd shear over the disturbance is a light 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperatures are 28°C, (82°F) which is well above the 26.5°C (80°F) threshold typically needed to allow formation of a tropical depression.

Forecast for 99L

Wind shear is expected to remain light for the next five days, and ocean temperatures will remain near 28°C, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. The disturbance is at 9°N, which is close enough to the Equator that the storm will have some difficultly getting spinning. Most of the models are showing some slow development of 99L, with the storm reaching the Lesser Antilles Islands on Saturday, August 3. NHC gave 99L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. I expect the storm will have trouble with dry air at times this week as it crosses the Atlantic, but I give 99L a 50% chance of eventually developing into Tropical Storm Ernesto sometime in the next ten days. Residents and visitors to the Lesser Antilles Islands should anticipate heavy rains and strong winds from 99L beginning to affect the islands as early as Friday night. The long-range fate of 99L is uncertain, but a trough of low pressure is expected to be present over the Eastern U.S. early next week, which would be capable of turning 99L more to the northwest.

[cycloneye]

Flash Flood Watch for all PR/USVI

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
129 PM AST MON JUL 30 2012

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-310900-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.A.0003.120730T1800Z-120731T2000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO...YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...COAMO...
COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...PONCE...AGUADILLA...
ISABELA...HATILLO...QUEBRADILLAS...UTUADO...SABANA GRANDE...LARES...
ADJUNTAS...HORMIGUEROS...MOCA...AGUADA...LUYANDO...CABO ROJO...
LAJAS...CULEBRA...ESPERANZA...ANNA`S RETREAT...CHARLOTTE AMALIE...
CHARLOTTE AMALIE EAST...CHARLOTTE AMALIE WEST...CRUZ BAY...
CHRISTIANSTED...FREDERIKSTED...FREDERIKSTED SOUTHEAST...GROVE PLACE
129 PM AST MON JUL 30 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

* THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON

* AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BRINGING
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN FROM ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF NEAR 2.5" IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROPICAL WAVE...AND THIS MOISTURE WHICH IS CLOSE TO 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL...WILL BE ENHANCED BY TOPOGRAPHY TO INCREASE
THE FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 18
HOURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU
ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP
INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED
OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE AWARE OF THE
POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AVOID LOW LYING AREAS...AND BE
CAREFUL WHEN APPROACHING HIGHWAY DIPS AND UNDERPASSES. THE
HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TV...RADIO OR YOUR
CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

&&

$$

AAS/OMS/RAM

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
323 PM AST MON JUL 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO AS TROPICAL
WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...NOW
LOCATED ALONG 64 WEST...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVE WAVE WILL CONTINUE
TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA
RESULTING IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. AS A RESULT...
CONTINUE TO EXPECT...PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...
GUSTY WINDS AS WELL AS SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS PORTION OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE ISLAND. IN FACT...A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS DUE TO THE FLOODING POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH
AS RIDGE PATTERN ESTABLISHES FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
MASS IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANT BE RULED OUT DUE TO LOCAL
EFFECTS AND LINGERING MOISTURE. LOOKING AHEAD...AN ACTIVE TROPICAL
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WITH SCT-BKN CLD LYRS BTW 018-050K FT
CONTD TO MOVE WESTWARDS ACROSS ERN AND BTW NRN LEEWARDS AND VIRGIN
ISLANDS. CLUSTERS OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS NOTED IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE EN ROUTE BTW PR AND THE NRN LEEWARDS
WITH ISOLD EMBEDDED CB WITH MAX TOPS ESTIMATED BTW 300-350K
FT...ESPECIALLY VCNTY TCNM...TKPN... AND TAPA. EXPCT THIS AND
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE WESTWARD AND BRIEFLY
AFFECT TISX AND TIST DURG REST OF AFTN...THEN SPREAD ACROSS
PR...TJSJ...TJNR AND THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. SFC WND GUST OF
25-35 KTS OR HIGHER WILL BE LIKELY AT ALL TAF SITES LATER TODAY
ESPECIALLY ACCOMPANYING THE MODERATE TO STRONG TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
REGIONAL WATERS AS AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. SEAS OF UP TO 7 FEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE OFF SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS WITH WINDS OF UP TO 23 KNOTS. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
AND WAVES CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE STRONGEST SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 78 89 / 60 60 40 40
STT 80 90 80 89 / 60 60 50 50

[Gustywind]

Waouw big thunderstorms in my area . One has just boombing near my house causing a serious poweroutage. Electricity is back but that will be an euphemisma to say and describe you how the lightnings are making an impressive show tonight... like the thunder Weather is very grey.

Be aware Cycloneye and the others, this twave is very convective, strong electric activity continues in Guadeloupe!

[cycloneye]

Waouw big thunderstorms in my area . One has just boombing near my house causing a serious poweroutage. Electricity is back but that will be an euphemisma to say and describe you how the lightnings are making an impressive show tonight... like the thunder Weather is very grey.

Be aware Cycloneye and the others, this twave is very convective, strong electric activity continues in Guadeloupe!

Thank you for posting that information.Stay safe there my friend. Let's see how things go tonight here and I will report anything inportant that may occur.

[Gustywind]

Waouw big thunderstorms in my area . One has just boombing near my house causing a serious poweroutage. Electricity is back but that will be an euphemisma to say and describe you how the lightnings are making an impressive show tonight... like the thunder Weather is very grey.

Be aware Cycloneye and the others, this twave is very convective, strong electric activity continues in Guadeloupe!

Thank you for posting that information.Stay safe there my friend. Let's see how things go tonight here and I will report anything important that may occur.

Thanks to you Cycloneye . Luis, i can assume you that this twave is VERY active! Strong convective activity is embedeed with this feature. Be aware, safe and dry. Hope you will have a calm night even if things should deteriorate in your area. We appreciate your comments and reports as usual. Be ok .

Gustywind

[Gustywind]

Here is a snipet of what could happen late in the week or early next week...

Stu Ostro, Senior Meteorologist, The Weather Channel

Jul 30, 2012 5:33 pm ET


ATLANTIC
- The strong tropical wave we've been tracking for many days is moving across the northeast Caribbean islands on schedule with locally heavy rain and gusty winds. A flash flood watch is in effect for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

- Farther out in the Atlantic, a portion of the "monsoon trough" continues to show rotation and organization, though it has been slow to consolidate deep, persistent convection. This system has the potential to gain sufficient structure to become a tropical cyclone during the next few days, as it traverses the Atlantic far enough south to avoid the most hostile atmospheric conditions and moves on a track far enough away from the equator for it to spin up. It is headed toward the Lesser Antilles by the end of the week or first part of the weekend.

[Gustywind]

Things seems to activate in the deep tropics because of Guadeloupe could be in the viewfinder... as another twave should concern the butterfly island during the end of the week (labeled for now as 99L and could becoming a TD, etc. status if conditions allow it, but we're far away from that, should it verifies first)

WEATHER. A wave is evacuated, an alternative approach

franceantilles.fr31.07.2012
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 180235.php

While the tropical wave that we interested throughout the day continue to gradually evacuated, another phenomenon is in approach, which could involve us at the weekend. Yellow vigilance remains appropriate.

Wave tropical No. 18, the most active part of which was between Dominica and Antigua in the second part of night, concerned the archipelago throughout the day today, spilling rollups of rain with nothing outstanding, according to the forecaster weather France. Some municipalities have been a little more rainfall than others: up to 100 mm (100 litres per m2) in 24 hours on the relief of Pointe-Noire, 85 mm and the Souffriere in Saint-Claude, 76 mm in Sainte-Anne, 60 mm in Basse-Terre, 58 mm in Raizet, 53 mm in Chazeau / Les Abymes, 39 mm in Sainte-Rose... Marie-Galante has been the wettest dependencies with 82 mm.

This evening, the sky remains covered, especially on the islands of North (Saint-Martin and Saint-Barthélemy), which impacted later, must know storms of beautiful intensities until tomorrow morning, after weather France. In Guadeloupe, the return to a green level of vigilance could intervene tomorrow morning. The improvement should emerge throughout the day. The overcast in the morning, will gradually give way to some thinned in the afternoon. However, instability should continue at least until Wednesday, a lot of showers trailing in the wake of the wave. A more sunny weather expected to return Thursday, but the lull should be only of short duration, a new wave to interest the archipelago at the end of the week.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1024 PM AST MON JUL 30 2012

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUBSIDED EARLY IN THE EVENING.
SATELLITE DERIVED BLENDED TPW IMAGERY AND 31/00Z SOUNDING INDICATES
THAT THERE IS AN AREA OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2.4 INCHES OVER
THE ISLANDS. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WAS ADJUSTED DUE TO TIMING...COVERING ONLY EASTERN PUERTO
RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE USVI UNTIL 31/15Z AND THEN
COVERING ALL OF THE MUNICIPALITIES IN PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE
USVI UNTIL 31/20Z.

[Gustywind]

99L with its low pretty south in latittud...

[cycloneye]

Discussion of 99L by Rob of Crown Weather:


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

By Rob Lightbown


Now, I am closely watching an area of disturbed weather, designated Invest 99L by the National Hurricane Center, located about 900 miles to the southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Satellite imagery this afternoon showed some fairly disorganized shower/thunderstorm activity, however, it seems that the convection is very slowly increasing and this is a system that will need to be watched over the next few days. Why is that? Because wind shear values are forecast to remain light enough and the atmosphere is forecast to be moist enough to allow for development to occur. Additionally, the track of Invest 99L potentially brings it into the southern Leeward Islands and the northern Windward Islands, as well as across Barbados by very late Friday or during Saturday.

The latest model guidance points to a slightly north of due west track this week with the GFS model forecasting modest intensification to perhaps a tropical storm while the European model forecasts very little development. The Canadian model seems to be the most aggressive forecasting 99L to intensify into a hurricane by Thursday into Friday and turn northwestward raking much of the Leeward Islands with hurricane conditions by Friday night and Saturday and then tracking towards the southeastern Bahamas by Sunday.

It is of my opinion that the Canadian model is too aggressive with the intensification while the European model is not aggressive enough given the favorable environmental conditions ahead of 99L over the next few days. My thinking right now is for slow development and intensification to Tropical Storm strength by as early as Friday. I do think that the southern Leeward Islands, the northern Windward Islands and Barbados will be first-in-line for future Tropical Storm Ernesto with tropical storm conditions possible as early as Friday afternoon across these areas.

Now, beyond the Leeward and Windward Islands, I think that the ridge of high pressure will be strong enough to keep Ernesto to be on a west-northwest track into the Caribbean by Sunday and Monday. Should the European model be correct and this system does not develop at all, then a eventual track into Central America could occur in about 10 days from now. Now, if Invest 99L does develop slowly and steadily, then a more northwesterly track towards Puerto Rico, Haiti and the Dominican Republic could materialize by next week.

So, as I have already mentioned, I think a slow, but steady intensification seems most probable with 99L possibly becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday or early Thursday and then possibly a tropical storm by Friday with tropical storm conditions possible across Barbados, the southern Leeward Islands and the Windward Islands as early as Friday afternoon.

Needless to say, I am monitoring Invest 99L very closely and I will keep you all updated on the latest."

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 302330
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH