ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[hurricanes1234]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... y/vis0.jpg <---- Click this link.

Here is a visible image of 99L. As of 16:15 UTC it doesn't look very impressive or vigorous, and deep convection has fallen back over the past 30 minutes.

[Zanthe]

Looks like I might have something to track on my birthday.
http://i45.tinypic.com/2zdr4gk.gif

[cycloneye]

Once again,the CMC at 12z goes just north of the Leewards.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[floridasun78]

were is bear watching bear at ???? their post when area bear watching

[cycloneye]

Stays at 20%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Stormlover2012]

euro had the last storm a stronger system so thats why it struggled little bit, I mean a baseball player can't go 4 for 4 every game...GFS got lucky!! it happens

[hurricanes1234]

Not surprising that it's still at 20%, latest visible and AVN images show it sustaining rather shallow convection, with no vigorous circulation... hopefully the eastern Pacific compensates for the lost activity in the Atlantic...

[JPmia]

well from what we can see from the Euro so far.. it now develops 99L:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

[caneseddy]

well from what we can see from the Euro so far.. it now develops 99L:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

12z Euro sees this as a Caribbean Cruiser straight into Honduras/Nicaragua border one week from today

[Nimbus]

99L is so far south that it may have trouble developing a symmetrical LLC.
These low lat systems often develop with an elongated circulation until they can break free of the ITCZ, and it can take time to sort out a dominant center. All the other development factors appear almost ideal so its easy to see why some of the models have this spinning up and heading NE of PR.

There is no good place for this to go with no gulf blocking ridge if it gets to the western Caribbean as a hurricane.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

99L is crawling west as it was at 8.7N-35.5W at 12z.

AL, 99, 2012073018, , BEST, 0, 87N, 358W, 20, 1010, DB

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[cycloneye]

18z Bams

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 301846
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1846 UTC MON JUL 30 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992012) 20120730 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120730  1800   120731  0600   120731  1800   120801  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     8.7N  35.8W    9.1N  38.9W    9.6N  42.2W    9.6N  45.7W
BAMD     8.7N  35.8W    8.8N  37.7W    9.0N  39.6W    9.4N  41.5W
BAMM     8.7N  35.8W    8.9N  38.0W    9.3N  40.3W    9.6N  42.6W
LBAR     8.7N  35.8W    8.7N  37.5W    8.9N  39.7W    9.1N  42.0W
SHIP        20KTS          22KTS          27KTS          34KTS
DSHP        20KTS          22KTS          27KTS          34KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120801  1800   120802  1800   120803  1800   120804  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     9.4N  49.1W    8.4N  54.7W    7.8N  59.3W    7.9N  62.5W
BAMD     9.8N  43.4W   10.5N  47.0W   11.9N  51.1W   14.3N  56.5W
BAMM    10.0N  44.7W   10.7N  48.7W   11.8N  52.8W   13.4N  57.6W
LBAR     9.3N  44.5W    9.4N  49.2W   10.0N  53.4W   12.4N  57.7W
SHIP        45KTS          63KTS          72KTS          75KTS
DSHP        45KTS          63KTS          72KTS          75KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =   8.7N LONCUR =  35.8W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR =   4KT
LATM12 =   8.7N LONM12 =  35.1W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 =   4KT
LATM24 =   8.7N LONM24 =  34.4W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   80NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  160NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[gatorcane]

12Z FIM roughly 1 week from now:

[wxman57]

I will be around Puerto Rico in 10 days should Invest 99L be gone by then.

Looks like it should be passing west of PR in around 8 days (Aug. 5th) or so.

I guess the real question is, will anything be left of it by then and will shear be a limiting factor by that time?

Presently, I'd give it a 50-60% shot at being a TS when it reaches the eastern Caribbean Saturday afternoon/evening(ish). Currently, it's a fairly low amplitude wave and it really doesn't stand out well on the MIMIC-TPW loop, but it does have a nice circulation on visible imagery (though convection is weak).

Can't determine for sure if it might survive and make it to the Gulf or be picked up by the trof along/off the East U.S. Coast eventually. Perhaps I can get one more Friday off this week, maybe.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

GFS ensembles are shifting north as I expected them to. The rest of the models should do the same over the next few runs.

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/i ... smodel.gif

This looks like an East Coast storm or an out to sea storm. The Caribbean track, in my opinion, is the least likely at this time.

edit by tolakram: removed direct linked image

[cycloneye]

GCANE, a big hot tower.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z FIM has also shifted to the right in the long-range and has it responding to the East Coast trough not before it hits Puerto Rico and the Northern Leewards though.

The 12Z FIM has a much more defined system than the 00Z, so that makes sense it could get influenced more by the East Coast trough.

[wxman57]

It's pretty far south. No guarantee it clips the NE Caribbean and heads east of Bahamas. Could take a southern track.

[lester]

were is bear watching bear at ???? their post when area bear watching

they're working on it

[gatorcane]

Yes, looks like a Hot Tower. Looking at satellite imagery trends over the past 24 hours and what the models are doing with this, I'd say it's on its way to code orange and forsee the NHC is going to be raising the percent chance of development, should be code orange by tomorrow.