Wave South of CV Islands (Is invest 90L)

Aric Dunn · #1 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Tue Jul 31, 2012 9:00 am

interesting feature.. dont think there is much model support. and its not likely all the way to the surface but very vigorous low to mid level circ.

Bocadude85 · #2 Postby **Bocadude85** » Tue Jul 31, 2012 10:57 am

^^^^ I noticed that disturbance earlier this morning Aric and it looks like it has become even more defined since this morning.. very interesting feature for sure.

#3 Postby **Blown Away** » Tue Jul 31, 2012 1:27 pm

TAFB shows a low attached to this wave in 72 hours. Not much model support at this point.

timmeister · #4 Postby **timmeister** » Tue Jul 31, 2012 1:41 pm

Impressive looking wave so far.

Gustywind · #5 Postby **Gustywind** » Wed Aug 01, 2012 5:24 am

Low pressure is now associated with this twave...
000
AXNT20 KNHC 010547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED AUG 01 2012

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR
17N22W TO A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH
NEAR 12N25W MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SW
NEAR 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF
DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THE N PORTION OF THE WAVE IS IN DRIER AIR DUE
TO SAHARAN DUST THAT COVERS THE E ATLC. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

Gustywind · #6 Postby **Gustywind** » Wed Aug 01, 2012 2:03 pm

No evidence of the low who dissapeared...

000
AXNT20 KNHC 011819
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 01 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N29W 13N30W 9N30W.
THIS WAVE SHOWS UP REALLY WELL IN LONG-TERM INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SINCE IT LEFT FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA. THE WAVE IS
EVIDENT IN THE TPW IMAGERY ALSO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 27W
AND 33W.

Aric Dunn · #7 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Aug 02, 2012 8:52 am

definately need to be watching this wave now. convection beginning to build and looks to be possibly developing a low level circ. There is some model support for it now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rgb.html

#8 Postby **RL3AO** » Thu Aug 02, 2012 8:57 am

Thats a lot of dust north of it...

Gustywind · #9 Postby **Gustywind** » Thu Aug 02, 2012 9:06 am

Aric Dunn wrote:definately need to be watching this wave now. convection beginning to build and looks to be possibly developing a low level circ. There is some model support for it now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rgb.html

Thanks Aric

. Which models it has? Can you post them, we will appreciate i think

Aric Dunn · #10 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Aug 02, 2012 9:13 am

Gustywind wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:definately need to be watching this wave now. convection beginning to build and looks to be possibly developing a low level circ. There is some model support for it now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rgb.html

Thanks Aric . Which models it has? Can you post them, we will appreciate i think

well none of them develop it but they keep a very sharp wave axis throughout. I would not normally say much but it has developed moderate convection despite the sal and I assume the models dont develop it or are having problems because of the dry air stable air. it has good convergence and a large broad circ if convection can maintain something working to the surface and possibly organizing is at least in the realm of possibility.

the gfs hangs onto pretty good
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

Gustywind · #11 Postby **Gustywind** » Thu Aug 02, 2012 9:17 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
Gustywind wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:definately need to be watching this wave now. convection beginning to build and looks to be possibly developing a low level circ. There is some model support for it now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rgb.html

Thanks Aric . Which models it has? Can you post them, we will appreciate i think

well none of them develop it but they keep a very sharp wave axis throughout. I would not normally say much but it have developed moderate convection despite the sal and I assume the models done develop it or are having problems because of the dry air stable air. it has good convergence and a large broad circ if convection can maintain something working to the surface and possibly organizing is at least in the realm of possibility.

the gfs hangs onto pretty good
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

Ok very interresting, thanks to you

#12 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 02, 2012 9:19 am

Aric,there is a larger one behind also spinning.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/satellit ... s_loop.gif

Aric Dunn · #13 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Aug 02, 2012 9:23 am

cycloneye wrote:Aric,there is a larger one behind also spinning.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/satellit ... s_loop.gif

Yeah I noticed that, I also notice the GFS wants to do something with that wave, while the others seem to merge the two or they interact with each other. I at the moment think they will stay separate.

I also tried to change the title of this but it wont let me cycloneye.

#14 Postby **tolakram** » Thu Aug 02, 2012 9:24 am

Tropical Tidbit sight is getting hammered, need to make sure we either copy or link to those images.

#15 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 02, 2012 9:28 am

tolakram wrote:Tropical Tidbit sight is getting hammered, need to make sure we either copy or link to those images.

Yes, thank you for letting me know.

HurricaneFan · #16 Postby **HurricaneFan** » Thu Aug 02, 2012 9:40 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Aric,there is a larger one behind also spinning.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/satellit ... s_loop.gif

Yeah I noticed that, I also notice the GFS wants to do something with that wave, while the others seem to merge the two or they interact with each other. I at the moment think they will stay separate.

I also tried to change the title of this but it wont let me cycloneye.

What does the models say about the Larger Wave in terms of The Track?

Riptide · #17 Postby **Riptide** » Thu Aug 02, 2012 11:51 am

It will be going across this, so I have faith in it. I have no idea what happened to the Atlantic; but it changed quickly.

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/anomwne.gif

edit by tolakram: removed direct image link.

TheBurn · #18 Postby **TheBurn** » Thu Aug 02, 2012 2:16 pm

18:00z RGB Natural Color

Not sure if this is the 'original' wave S of CV, but the recently created thread for this newer wave was locked.
Certainly looks impressive coming off the African coast.

=

#19 Postby **northjaxpro** » Thu Aug 02, 2012 2:36 pm

Yeah, this wave is impressive. I think this wave will have much more conducive conditions for development . This is definitely one to watch in the coming days.

Blinhart · #20 Postby **Blinhart** » Thu Aug 02, 2012 3:05 pm

Could this cause a Katrina/Rita incident, or even a Gustav/Ike incident. Looks like these systems are about a week apart.

Wave South of CV Islands (Is invest 90L)

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