ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[NDG]

Looking at the vis sat loop this morning, I say that its surface circulation is close to the 11th latitude, with most of the deep convection displaced to the south of it.

[NDG]

I just looked at a satellite this morning of invest 99l and I subconsciously said, "Wow, nice outflow." It is looking quite healthy on satellite. Also, does anyone have a link that shows the Dvorak Number on this system?

The last one at 06z was still classified as less than than a TD strength, lets see what the 12z update shows.

Code: Select all

DATE/TIME     LAT      LON      CLASSIFICATION       STORM
  01/0545 UTC    9.4N     43.9W       T1.0/1.0         99L 


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html#ATL

[cycloneye]

Up to 60%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW...AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[AHS2011]

I just looked at a satellite this morning of invest 99l and I subconsciously said, "Wow, nice outflow." It is looking quite healthy on satellite. Also, does anyone have a link that shows the Dvorak Number on this system?

The last one at 06z was still classified as less than than a TD strength, lets see what the 12z update shows.

Code: Select all

DATE/TIME     LAT      LON      CLASSIFICATION       STORM
  01/0545 UTC    9.4N     43.9W       T1.0/1.0         99L 


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html#ATL

Thanks for all of that.

[NDG]

Looking at the vis sat loop this morning, I say that its surface circulation is close to the 11th latitude, with most of the deep convection displaced to the south of it.

This latest scan clearly shows that the COC is near the 11th latitude, IMO.

[GCANE]

PV nicely stacked 850 to 500mb. Vorticity inversely proportional to height.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

All clear at 200mb.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

99L is spinning up.

[GCANE]

Rain rate approaching hot-tower levels.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... .98pc.html

[wxman57]

My first impression this morning was that it looks less organized than 24 hours ago.

[NDG]

My first impression this morning was that it looks less organized than 24 hours ago.

I am glad I was not the only one, lol.

[Gustywind]

Interresting paragraph and all residents in the Lesser Antilles especially those who lived in the Windwards should keep an eye on.

000
AXNT20 KNHC 011201
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 01 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 14N44W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR
10N45W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-13N
BETWEEN 43W-48W. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW/WAVE IS ABOUT 870 NM TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD 13 TO 17 KT. INTERESTS IN THE
WINDWARD ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[Blown Away]

My first impression this morning was that it looks less organized than 24 hours ago.

I know you are the voice of reality most of the time, but you have to give us something, it's been a long time since we had a potential CV system to track. Give us a little false hope!!

[AHS2011]

Are those band-like looking features on the northern and southern part of the storm healthy for it?

[Gustywind]

Aric given the latest on 99L do you think that this feature could spare the Lesser Antilles in terms of track?
Tkanks to you , we always appreciate your precious thoughts.

[Gustywind]

Numbers have been up...
01/1145 UTC 9.3N 45.1W T1.5/1.5 99L

[wxman57]

My first impression this morning was that it looks less organized than 24 hours ago.

I know you are the voice of reality most of the time, but you have to give us something, it's been a long time since we had a potential CV system to track. Give us a little false hope!!

I've been saying for over a month, second week of August for Ernesto.

[hurricanes1234]

The outflow is excellent in the north. Seems to be okay in the south too.

[cycloneye]

I've been saying for over a month, second week of August for Ernesto.

wxman57, this same system would be somewhere down the road in that period.

[Aric Dunn]

I think its going to be very difficult to get this to move the the north of the islands gusty.

[GCANE]

Are those band-like looking features on the northern and southern part of the storm healthy for it?

The northern band seems not to be effected by the shear of the ULL.

HDW-H appears to show UL winds over the band are more from the outflow of 99L, especially on the NW side of the COC.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[Gustywind]

I think its going to be very difficult to get this to move the the north of the islands gusty.

Thanks to you my friend . So, let's wait and see and hope that this feature won't be too strong if it crosses the Lesser Antilles...