ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Aric Dunn]

Clearly better organized than yesterday. I well defined circ is now present. the sat appearance in terms of convection is less intense then yesterday but the overall structure and organization is quite a bit improved. Its very likely already TD but need to hold on for another 12 hours to show its not going to collapse before the NHC does anything.

[NDG]

Numbers have been up...
01/1145 UTC 9.3N 45.1W T1.5/1.5 99L

There is no way that the COC is that far south.

[Aric Dunn]

Numbers have been up...
01/1145 UTC 9.3N 45.1W T1.5/1.5 99L

There is no way that the COC is that far south.

No its up at almost 12n north now.

[cycloneye]

Very close to TD status and moving between 280-285 degrees.

[RL3AO]

A question in general is how many days before a possible recon mission which hasn't been asked yet.

Looks like Friday.


I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUT LOOK: PROBABLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST AT 03/1800Z NEAR 12.5N 57.5W

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 99, 2012080112, , BEST, 0, 102N, 470W, 25, 1009, LO

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[GCANE]

According to these models, there is a 100% chance we will have a named storm in two days.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 010600.PNG

[hurricanes1234]

I need everyone's opinion on the peak of this storm. Does anyone think that it will become a major hurricane? Or do you think that it will peak as a weak TS? Or, then again, do you think it will peak as a hurricane? Please reply so I'll know what you think. It doesn't have to be one of the three mentioned possibilities. You can reply your own.

[Aric Dunn]

very unlikely it will reach hurricane strength before the islands. if the upper level environment remains the same in the carribean with low shear then maybe after.

[GCANE]

Very close to TD status and moving between 280-285 degrees.

UL outflow is 20 knots on the southern quad. Impressive for a system that far south.

[adam0983]

If Invest 99L get better organized fasted than expected what effect would that have the track of the storm? I think we already have Ernesto based on presentation and radar of the system.

[cycloneye]

Unless you're a meteorologist, please include the Personal Forecast Disclaimer on all forecasts and matter of fact statements. You do not need it for general comments and opinions.

Examples:
"I don't think we have to worry about this one in Texas."
Not Needed

"This one is not coming to Texas. It will make landfall this Friday in Pensacola, Florida as a cat2 hurricane."
Needed

We do realize there's some gray area, so if you're not sure, feel free to contact a staff member or just include it. It only takes a few seconds to copy and paste it from the top of any page you're on in this forum.

Thank you for your cooperation.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[AHS2011]

This storm is looking quite attractive today. The outflow looks sexy, haha.

[cycloneye]

Disregard the above 12z Best Track as they made a new update.Aric,that position is where you are looking at?


Updated 12z Best Track

AL, 99, 2012080112, , BEST, 0, 107N, 469W, 30, 1009, LO

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Invest 99L is very close to tropical depression status. It will attain it later today or tonight before strengthening into Tropical Storm Ernesto tomorrow. It will further become a severe tropical storm as it passes through the Windward Islands around 13N, and remain steady/strengthen slightly through its pass in the central Caribbean. Faster intensification begins in the West Caribbean.

[Sanibel]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I wouldn't pull the trigger on this one just yet. The Caribbean is still hostile and I've seen many systems look like they are forming only to crash as soon as the leave the favorable Central Atlantic tropical zone. Tough call because we are right on the cusp of the season becoming more favorable. As always, the storm itself will be the best indicator of conditions.

[NDG]

Disregard the above 12z Best Track as they made a new update.Aric,that position is where you are looking at?


Updated 12z Best Track

AL, 99, 2012080112, , BEST, 0, 107N, 469W, 30, 1009, LO

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

Looking at the vis sat loop this morning, I say that its surface circulation is close to the 11th latitude, with most of the deep convection displaced to the south of it.

I am glad they see it now.

[Blown Away]

Models are beginning to sniff a weakness to allow a more northerly track after entering the Caribbean. The 12z TVCN consensus track is more north and now shows a sharp right turn below Cuba. The trend so far today is models slowly shifting north. JMHO

[wxman57]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Invest 99L is very close to tropical depression status. It will attain it later today or tonight before strengthening into Tropical Storm Ernesto tomorrow. It will further become a severe tropical storm as it passes through the Windward Islands around 13N, and remain steady/strengthen slightly through its pass in the central Caribbean. Faster intensification begins in the West Caribbean.

Based on what? We have no strong indication of a surface circulation. Convection remains quite disorganized, even less so than yesterday. There's no way it will be classified as a TD today. Possibly tomorrow afternoon at the earliest, assuming it gets its act together today/tonight. But it's not showing any sign of rapid organization at this time.

[yankeeslover]

sorry, i know i have asked this before, and way way too early, but does anyone know the airline policy on storms like this? i fly from CT to Orlando early next friday 8/10... some models showing this hitting florida coast that same day.. do airlines cancel flights days before? i take vacation every 10 years and have not flown in years..getting alittle worried about this.. my dates are firm due to work.. so if this shows it might hit florida, what do airlines normall do(southwest) do they try to fly around the storm? or do they just cancel flights days on end? i have this nagging scenerio where flights get canceled and im stuck in CT waiting to fly to disney for days on end...dont mean to be selfish, im not, i just have an anxious 5 yo that cant wait to go...