ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[adam0983]

I would wait and see this is way to early for to know where it is going. It is not even named yet and computer models are not reliable.

[ozonepete]

sorry, i know i have asked this before, and way way too early, but does anyone know the airline policy on storms like this? i fly from CT to Orlando early next friday 8/10... some models showing this hitting florida coast that same day.. do airlines cancel flights days before? i take vacation every 10 years and have not flown in years..getting alittle worried about this.. my dates are firm due to work.. so if this shows it might hit florida, what do airlines normall do(southwest) do they try to fly around the storm? or do they just cancel flights days on end? i have this nagging scenerio where flights get canceled and im stuck in CT waiting to fly to disney for days on end...dont mean to be selfish, im not, i just have an anxious 5 yo that cant wait to go...

Airlines almost never cancel days ahead. They wait until their pro mets say chances are reasonably good for storm conditions at an airport and then the airline will start cancelling, and that usually doesn't happen until 1 or 2 days before. So it's way too early to tell. Not to mention the current model forecasts, as tentative as they are, have it passing well south of Florida for now. You will just have to wait, but honestly there is no reason to worry right now.

[drezee]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Invest 99L is very close to tropical depression status. It will attain it later today or tonight before strengthening into Tropical Storm Ernesto tomorrow. It will further become a severe tropical storm as it passes through the Windward Islands around 13N, and remain steady/strengthen slightly through its pass in the central Caribbean. Faster intensification begins in the West Caribbean.

Based on what? We have no strong indication of a surface circulation. Convection remains quite disorganized, even less so than yesterday. There's no way it will be classified as a TD today. Possibly tomorrow afternoon at the earliest, assuming it gets its act together today/tonight. But it's not showing any sign of rapid organization at this time.

I must say that the LLC, if any, is about to pop from under the convection heading WNW. Dry Air is taking its toll...

[tolakram]

Latest Visible


Live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[FireBird]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm thinking that the increased forward speed will see less intesification before reaching the islands, perhaps developing into a weak TS around the 55-60 mark.
From what I've observed in the past with potential systems near my grid, the faster the forward speed, the more likely a westerly motion or just N of west.
Any thoughts on this guys?

[ozonepete]

I must say that the LLC, if any, is about to pop from under the convection heading WNW. Dry Air is taking its toll...

There's no low or mid-level dry air around this system at all.

[adam0983]

Thats the best looking Invest I have ever seen. This looks like Ernesto

[NDG]

12z SHIPS forecast makes more sense that if it takes more of a northerly track the more it could encounter stronger shear, thus why it does not strengthens it as much as it did in its 12z run.

Code: Select all

*   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    * GOES AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE       *
                    *      INVEST  AL992012  08/01/12  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    30    33    36    40    43    48    51    53    52    49    45    45    44
V (KT) LAND       30    33    36    40    43    48    51    53    52    49    45    45    37
V (KT) LGE mod    30    32    35    38    40    46    51    54    54    52    48    44    36
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        11     9     6     7     8     9    12    21    26    28    41    34    39
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     2     2     5     6     8     5     4     0     5     2     4     0    -2
SHEAR DIR        321   348   347   337   335   297   286   277   278   258   284   277   286
SST (C)         28.0  28.1  28.1  28.1  28.1  28.0  28.0  28.1  28.1  28.2  28.4  28.5  28.5
POT. INT. (KT)   136   135   135   139   139   137   138   140   140   141   144   146   145
ADJ. POT. INT.   133   129   128   139   139   137   138   141   141   142   143   143   141
200 MB T (C)   -53.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7
TH_E DEV (C)       6     6     7     7     6     7     7     8     8     9     9    10     9
700-500 MB RH     68    65    62    67    65    62    63    65    63    63    67    66    63
GFS VTEX (KT)     11    10    11    11    11    12    12    12    12    11    10    10    10
850 MB ENV VOR    13     1     1     4     7    13    16    19    10     8   -14     1     5
200 MB DIV        15     8    22    25     5    11    24    38    48    58    24    46    32
700-850 TADV     -14   -13    -9    -6    -2     5     7     9    11    17    13    10    -6
LAND (KM)        883   893   904   852   799   746   723   660   483   511   256     2   -39
LAT (DEG N)     10.7  10.6  10.4  10.7  10.9  11.5  12.1  13.1  14.1  15.4  16.7  17.9  18.7
LONG(DEG W)     46.9  46.6  46.2  47.3  48.4  50.5  52.8  55.4  58.1  61.1  63.9  66.9  69.8
STM SPEED (KT)     8     4     3    11    11    11    12    14    15    15    15    15    14
HEAT CONTENT      31    31    31    28    20    18    29    29    53    49    63    57    78



[RL3AO]

Thats the best looking Invest I have ever seen. This looks like Ernesto

I won't say ever, but certainly this week.

[ConvergenceZone]

to everyone who says this looks this is a storm already or will become one today, I think you need to go back and read wxman's post about how he says, definately not today, he's the pro here, not us....Just feel as if his posts are being ignored.....

[SEASON_CANCELED]

oh lord. some of those plots look scary. straight through into the gulf

[GCANE]

COC readjusted. Now correlates with convection.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 010645.jpg

[GCANE]

Time plot of intensity

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 011200.GIF

[NDG]

I think that if there is a LLC it is located within the red circle, with the MLC displaced to the south of it, it is being affected already by westerly shear.

[wxman57]

sorry, i know i have asked this before, and way way too early, but does anyone know the airline policy on storms like this? i fly from CT to Orlando early next friday 8/10... some models showing this hitting florida coast that same day.. do airlines cancel flights days before? i take vacation every 10 years and have not flown in years..getting alittle worried about this.. my dates are firm due to work.. so if this shows it might hit florida, what do airlines normall do(southwest) do they try to fly around the storm? or do they just cancel flights days on end? i have this nagging scenerio where flights get canceled and im stuck in CT waiting to fly to disney for days on end...dont mean to be selfish, im not, i just have an anxious 5 yo that cant wait to go...

Airlines won't cancel flights until squalls are beginning to impact the airport. You'll probably be fine.

[ozonepete]

to everyone who says this looks this is a storm already or will become one today, I think you need to go back and read wxman's post about how he says, definately not today, he's the pro here, not us....Just feel as if his posts are being ignored.....

lol we love wxman but sometimes disagree. That's what makes for lively discussion here. As long as everyone who disagrees with him sticks to good science (and we know wxman does) we can have good debates. If you think we're ignoring him, just wait a little while: those of us who disagree are gathering data to make our case. And after we do he'll put most of us in our place, lol.

[TheBurn]

14:00 UTC RGB Natural Color





14:15 UTC RBTOP IR

[wxman57]

I'm still not seeing much of a surface circulation - not as much as yesterday or the day before. That band to the north is more of an outflow boundary than an inflow feature. And there's a linear band of convection stretching westward along 11N. It remains very poorly organized this morning. Still has a fair potential to become a TD in 24-36 hours, and possibly a weak TS (35-40 kts) prior to reaching the eastern Caribbean.

[NDG]

So what do you think?

['CaneFreak]

I think those images are 12 hours old. Got ya

On a more serious note, it looks like any ordinary, slowly developing TC that is beginning to consolidate the vorticity a little more and more each and every day.

So what do you think?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc12/A ... W.55pc.jpg