ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Houstonia]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 011453
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

1100 AM EDT WED 01 AUGUST 2012

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z AUGUST 2012

TCPOD NUMBER.....12-075


1. SUSPECT AREA.....APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES

FLIGHT ONE -TEAL 70-

A. 02/1800Z

B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST

C. 02/1530Z

D. 12.4N 54.4W

E. 02/1730Z TO 02/2030Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


FLIGHT TWO -TEAL 72-

A. 03/0600, 1200Z

B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE

C. 03/0400Z

D. 13.0N 57.5W

E. 03/0530Z TO 03/1200Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[RL3AO]

Ooh they moved recon up to tomorrow.

[ozonepete]

I'm still not seeing much of a surface circulation - not as much as yesterday or the day before. That band to the north is more of an outflow boundary than an inflow feature. And there's a linear band of convection stretching westward along 11N. It remains very poorly organized this morning. Still has a fair potential to become a TD in 24-36 hours, and possibly a weak TS (35-40 kts) prior to reaching the eastern Caribbean.

I would respectfully disagree on the northern band. If it were an outflow boundary it would be more temporary, yet it's been around for quite a while now. In addition it would have to have been caused by the collapse of a large thunderstorm cluster and it wasn't. Oh, and you called it a band.

Also, NDG's post above sure makes it looks like the LLC has closed off or is just about to. We need another ASCAT or OSCAT pass but I'm guessing it's closed.

Having said all of that I agree we get a TD in 24-36 hours, although it could be in less, like 12 hours from now.

[Rgv20]

A little tidbit from the NWS morning discussion out of Houston..

"FOCUS IS TURNING MORE TO THE TROPICS AS A CAPE VERDE WAVE LOCATED
AROUND 45W TRAVELS INTO THE LESSER ANTILLES BY DAY 3. TPC HAS
GIVEN THIS WAVE A DECENT CHANCE TO ORGANIZE INTO A TC. GIVEN THAT
OUR ONGOING RIDGE WILL MOST LIKELY STILL BE A DOMINANT FEATURE...THE
THREAT TO OUR COAST IS MINIMAL. AS THE RIDGE WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN
AND THE AFOREMENTIONED EASTERN US/GULF TROF (OR BOUNDARY) WILL
COME INTO PLAY...THIS MAY PROVIDE A MORE N-NE STEERING MECHANISM.
IF THIS WAVE DOES EVOLVE...ANOTHER PATH WOULD BE UNDER GULF RIDGING...
STEERED NEAR DUE WEST TOWARDS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/BAY THIS TIME
NEXT WEEK. NWP DOES NOT DO MUCH WITH THIS WAVE...BARELY DISCERNIBLE
BY EARLY IN THE WEEK. IT DOES BEAR NOTE THAT BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF LEAN TOWARDS A MORE ACTIVE GULF (QPF- WISE). THE EURO IS THE
AGGRESSOR ON DEVELOPING AN UPPER-LEVEL INVERTED TROF OVER THE TEXAS
COAST BY DAY 7 OR 8. IT`S GETTING TO BE THAT TIME OF YEAR AGAIN....31"

[wxman57]

It won't be classified as a TD until recon gets there tomorrow afternoon - at the earliest.

[ROCK]

those shear numbers will unstack this pretty quick if verified....41 knots...

[ozonepete]

It won't be classified as a TD until recon gets there tomorrow afternoon - at the earliest.

So we'll have another Invest going straight to a TS this year. Ok, maybe not, but it wouldn't surprise me if this had TS winds by the time they get there.

[adam0983]

Does anyone know where Invest 99L will be in 5 days?

[wxman57]

It won't be classified as a TD until recon gets there tomorrow afternoon - at the earliest.

So we'll have another Invest going straight to a TS this year. Ok, maybe not, but it wouldn't surprise me if this had TS winds by the time they get there.

Possibly. Just looking at it in the past hour or so, it does look like it's starting to get a bit better organized. But no TD today.

Anyone know what's up with the ASCAT winds site (or know a backup site)? I can't get there:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/cgi ... t_storm.pl

[GCANE]

I'm still not seeing much of a surface circulation - not as much as yesterday or the day before. That band to the north is more of an outflow boundary than an inflow feature. And there's a linear band of convection stretching westward along 11N. It remains very poorly organized this morning. Still has a fair potential to become a TD in 24-36 hours, and possibly a weak TS (35-40 kts) prior to reaching the eastern Caribbean.

I would respectfully disagree on the northern band. If it were an outflow boundary it would be more temporary, yet it's been around for quite a while now. In addition it would have to have been caused by the collapse of a large thunderstorm cluster and it wasn't. Oh, and you called it a band.

Also, NDG's post above sure makes it looks like the LLC has closed off or is just about to. We need another ASCAT or OSCAT pass but I'm guessing it's closed.

Having said all of that I agree we get a TD in 24-36 hours, although it could be in less, like 12 hours from now.

Agreed on your comments concerning outflow boundary. I don't see anything on satellite showing cu's coming from the center of the convection cluster.

[NDG]

This is what I am seeing.
The possible LLC that I think is there or almost there is still somewhat attached to the ITCZ trough, but is slowly detaching itself this morning. If convection continues to build close to the possible LLC we could see this get upgraded to TD if not by 5 PM at 11 PM.




Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ROCK]

IMO, if they are going to wait for RECON they might ust make the jump to TS and skip TD like they have been all season.... You can look at the sat and see better organization as the day progresses. I wouldnt be surprised.

[RL3AO]

On the 37mHz imagery what level of the atmosphere are we seeing? Because you can clearly see a circulation.

[GCANE]

IMHO, looking at MIMIC-TPW, it appears to be lifting north of the convergence zone.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

850mb vorticity loop appears to confirm

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... 4java.html

[Hurricaneman]

one main thing is this is moving 5 kts too fast which is causing westerly shear, if it slows down 5 kts this could be trouble

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[GCANE]

TCFA posted

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/ima ... 080112.gif

[AHS2011]

The 8 P.M. update should be the most interesting update of the day....IMHO.

[GCANE]

Looks like it'll be a tight little core.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 312015.GIF

[Gustywind]

Disturbance 99L more organized

By Dr. Jeff Masters
Published: 14:02 GMT le 01 août 2012
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... ticle.html

A tropical wave (Invest 99L) near 11°N 47°W, about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is showing increasing organization, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression today or tomorrow as it moves westward at 15 - 20 mph. Visible satellite loops show that the disturbance now has two respectable low-level spiral bands, one to the north and one to the south, and a moderate amount of heavy thunderstorms near the center. The thunderstorm activity has not changed much in intensity this morning. A well-defined surface circulation is not evident on satellite images, but last night's 8:30 pm EDT pass from the ASCAT satellite showed a broad, elongated center with light winds had formed. Water vapor satellite loops show that 99L has a reasonably moist environment, and the latest Saharan air layer analysis shows that the dry air from the Sahara is not present in large quantities over the central tropical Atlantic. WInd shear over the disturbance has increased some since Tuesday, and is now at the moderate level, 10 - 15 knots. Ocean temperatures are 28°C, (82°F) which is about 0.5°C above average for this time of year.

Forecast for 99L
Wind shear is expected to remain light to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Friday, ocean temperatures will remain near 28°C, and mid-level moisture will be a moderate 60 - 70%, according to the 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model. The disturbance has gained a bit of latitude and is now at 11°N, which will help it leverage the Earth's spin more to acquire its own spin. These conditions are probably sufficient for 99L to become Tropical Depression Five, with Thursday being the most likely day for this to happen. However, the reliable computer models are not very eager to develop 99L, and none show it becoming a hurricane over the next five days. This is probably because the atmosphere over the tropical Atlantic is unusually stable for this time of year (Figure 2), with large-scale areas of dry, sinking air present. Climatologically, we see very few Cape Verdes-type hurricanes forming near the Lesser Antilles Islands this early in August, and I expect 99L will struggle at times over the next few days. This is particularly likely if 99L goes north of 13°N, where a band a high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots associated with the subtropical jet stream lies. At 8 am Wednesday, NHC gave 99L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. Residents and visitors to the Lesser Antilles Islands should anticipate heavy rains and strong winds from 99L beginning to affect the islands as early as Friday morning. The long-range fate of 99L next week is uncertain, but a track west to west-northwest through the Caribbean is the most popular solution from the models.

[ROCK]

Looks like it'll be a tight little core.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 312015.GIF

yep, LLC slightly NW of the convection. Detaching from the ITCZ...IMO this is a TD. It wouldnt take much to stack this but it looks like its out running the convection. Also has a wnw jog in that clip....