ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Hurricaneman]

Looking at the 12z GFS, I believe the ensembles will show a grouping from Pensacola to New Orleans and another grouping from Belize to Brownsville, I believe this is what's going to happen but I think the 12z GFS is being too agressive but we'll see


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[MiamiensisWx]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The 12Z GFS now delays real organization to a TD until the system approaches Jamaica in four days...until then, it shows virtually no organization, in contrast to 12Z runs posted yesterday. And at any rate, timing is everything...as the run shows the system being centered under a narrow area of light winds between two encroaching upper-level lows in the Western Caribbean basin. So I would not give the intensity much weight.

As for the Windward Islands, as the system will be small and moving fairly rapidly, I would not anticipate much of a direct flooding threat.

[tolakram]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Given the improvements this afternoon I'm going to guess 80% chance at 2, and near 100% with wording about a TD may be forming tonight. TD might be declared by tomorrow morning, first visible, if it continues to improve.

I'm always wrong.

Latest zoom 2 visible

[Blown Away]

Wow, Big changes with 12z GFS:
Maintains a storm through Caribbean
Clips Jamaica
Skims over N Yucatan Peninsula
Landafalls as a stronger storm in Central Mexico

[Fego]

May be this loop can help.

[Stormlover2012]

still long way out!! path wise dont need to worry about rightnow

[cycloneye]

12z CMC goes thru the center of Hispanola and ends in Bahamas.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[AJC3]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Given the improvements this afternoon I'm going to guess 80% chance at 2, and near 100% with wording about a TD may be forming tonight. TD might be declared by tomorrow morning, first visible, if it continues to improve.

I'm always wrong.

Latest zoom 2 visible

http://img443.imageshack.us/img443/8696/zztempy.jpg

I don't see 80 percent coming at 2PM, however, I suppose it's possible since we're talking a T+48 window. However, the recent improvement in vort structure is somewhat counteracted by convection having less areal coverage and being less central (i.e. sheared and mainly confined to the southern half of the system nearer the ITCZ), So overall satellite appearance is kind of a wash. The center has pulled north a full 2 degrees in the last 18-24 hours. The key to when it will be declared a TD is now strictly a function of convective organization, because it does appear to have tightened up a low level vortex/wind circulation. Would love to see a nice ASCAT pass over 99L right now.

[adam0983]

Is there any weakness in the ridge that could send Invest 99L into the Hurricane Graveyard?

[timmeister]

I briefly examined available climatology concerning systems that formed between August 1—15 within 90 n mi of the current position. For seasons with weak El Niño present by mid-August, as the current Pacific warming is on track to be, out of about 10 samples, I could not find any system on the current trajectory that developed, save Dennis of 1981, which went on to hit South Florida.

MiamiensisWx, although this storm did not hit South Florida but hit South Texas, how would you compare Hurricane Allen in 1980 to this system? Hurricane Allen formed on July 31, 1980 around the same latitude and became a tropical depression on August 1, 1980. At the time it formed the SOI was +1.4, the current SOI is +0.9 on 29 July. Here is Allen's track:

[cycloneye]

Up to 70%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...AND THE LOW COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 20 MPH.
INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[mcheer23]

AND THE LOW COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

Thats some key wording.

[Blown Away]

Moving WNW now? Thought west or slightly north of west was te projection for next few days?

[ROCK]

70% seems right in line with model trends....good call NHC!!

[ROCK]

12z CMC goes thru the center of Hispanola and ends in Bahamas.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

got to give it to the CMC....not flipped like some others. Still wants to pull this north and up and out to sea....

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Invest 99L is very close to tropical depression status. It will attain it later today or tonight before strengthening into Tropical Storm Ernesto tomorrow. It will further become a severe tropical storm as it passes through the Windward Islands around 13N, and remain steady/strengthen slightly through its pass in the central Caribbean. Faster intensification begins in the West Caribbean.

Based on what? We have no strong indication of a surface circulation. Convection remains quite disorganized, even less so than yesterday. There's no way it will be classified as a TD today. Possibly tomorrow afternoon at the earliest, assuming it gets its act together today/tonight. But it's not showing any sign of rapid organization at this time.

No surface circulation? LOL.

The part about it being a Severe tropical storm (50 knots) by the time it reaches the islands may be a little generous. But it should still survive the east and central Caribbean and strengthen quickly/rapidly in the West Caribbean given the favorable atmospheric conditions it will be encountering by that time.

For the first time since the GFS sniffed out 99L, it shows it becoming a hurricane.

[RL3AO]

No surface circulation? LOL.

The part about it being a Severe tropical storm (50 knots) by the time it reaches the islands may be a little generous. But it should still survive the east and central Caribbean and strengthen quickly/rapidly in the West Caribbean given the favorable atmospheric conditions it will be encountering by that time.

For the first time since the GFS sniffed out 99L, it shows it becoming a hurricane.

When he made that post there was little to no evidence of a surface circulation.

[ouragans]

70% is a good compromise. My opinion is that we will have a TD by 11PM or at last tomorrow 5AM. I cannot imagine they will wait again until the RECON to go straight to TS. Not 4 times in a row, otherwise we can erase TDs from our vocabulary...

People in Guadeloupe are not aware of 99L, but in our sister island Martinique with the traditional boat race around the island this week, the word is spreading pretty quick. Local media announced bad weather for Friday.

[SouthDadeFish]

A new convective burst is popping real close to the center. If it can continue to grow and expand over the center I could see TD at 11pm tonight, but tomorrow morning or afternoon seems more likely. (Just my opinion)

[mcheer23]

IMO if they dont classify this by 11pm they probably will wait for recon.