ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

70% is a good compromise. My opinion is that we will have a TD by 11PM or at last tomorrow 5AM. I cannot imagine they will wait again until the RECON to go straight to TS. Not 4 times in a row, otherwise we can erase TDs from our vocabulary...

People in Guadeloupe are not aware of 99L, but in our sister island Martinique with the traditional boat race around the island this week, the word is spreading pretty quick. Local media announced bad weather for Friday.

People in the islands should pay close attention to what is going on. I understand that in some of the islands there will be carnival partys.Well,at least I know of one person who is all over this in the butterfly island of Guadeloupe and that is our friend Gustywind.

[ozonepete]

I don't see 80 percent coming at 2PM, however, I suppose it's possible since we're talking a T+48 window. However, the recent improvement in vort structure is somewhat counteracted by convection having less areal coverage and being less central (i.e. sheared and mainly confined to the southern half of the system nearer the ITCZ), So overall satellite appearance is kind of a wash. The center has pulled north a full 2 degrees in the last 18-24 hours. The key to when it will be declared a TD is now strictly a function of coenvective organization, because it does appear to have tightened up a low level vortex/wind circulation. Would love to see a nice ASCAT pass over 99L right now.

Well said. I also would love to see an ASCAT pass. I will try to look into it but busy with work right now. Does anyone else know or have an idea?

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The key to the steering for this one will be how strong it gets and how quickly. The CMC makes this a deeper system which causes the system to gain more lattitude and head more WNW and eventually NW. The GFS and ECMWF are still not calling for a deep system, though the last run of the GFS deepens it more and it ends ups shifting north. The Western Atlantic ridge (Bermuda High) does not look to be an exceptionally strong one when I look at the the long-range projections by the global models. I would say 100% this become Ernesto.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

No surface circulation? LOL.

The part about it being a Severe tropical storm (50 knots) by the time it reaches the islands may be a little generous. But it should still survive the east and central Caribbean and strengthen quickly/rapidly in the West Caribbean given the favorable atmospheric conditions it will be encountering by that time.

For the first time since the GFS sniffed out 99L, it shows it becoming a hurricane.

When he made that post there was little to no evidence of a surface circulation.

There was evidence of a surface circulation yesterday morning...The question has been whether or not it's closed. It appears to be.

[tolakram]

70% with possible TD later today or tonight? I don't think I've been wrong quite like that before.

Thanks for the comments AJC3, always informative.

[SouthFLTropics]

So GFS trumped King Euro on Debby...Is it the CMC's turn to show everybody up this time around??? If it does I'll eat a healthy portion of crow!!!

SFT

[hurricanes1234]

INTERESTS IN THE CARIBBEAN, PARTICULARLY THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WNW. FLASH FLOODING, MUDSLIDES AND MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALL REMAIN A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY AS THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES THROUGH THE ISLAND CHAIN AND ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks like 99L is getting some nice inflow from the W and SW that is helping the recent convective burst to expand. Here's 17:45Z:



I see some banding trying to become established.

For comparison here is a 17:45Z IR image:

[JonathanBelles]

70% with possible TD later today or tonight? I don't think I've been wrong quite like that before.

Thanks for the comments AJC3, always informative.

I agree with the percentage chance of development with the given time frame, but what I do not agree with is the wording for tropical depression status. Given latest satellite trends, I do not see an upgrade happening at 5p or 11p tonight. I don't think that it meets the convective coverage criteria for a cyclone. I don't know, but i'm not expecting a depression when I get home from work tonight.

[tolakram]

There was evidence of a surface circulation yesterday morning...The question has been whether or not it's closed. It appears to be.

I disagree. There was evidence of a mid level circulation, but no hard evidence of a closed circulation at the surface. Even now, as I posted earlier, the LLC looks suspect, more like something trying to dig down but not quite there.

This is not a contest to see who is right or wrong, it is a friendly discussion board where everyone needs to show respect, especially to the pro-mets who volunteer their expertise here.

[Hurricaneman]

I have some analogs of possible tracks this storm could take

If a weakness develops{Strength will a best be a low end hurricane IMO}

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png


If the ridge stays strong

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png


Im more likely to go with the second group as far as track, as said above though I'm not expecting anything over a cat 1 hurricane, but do expect Ernesto by this weekend near Barbados

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Gustywind]

70% is a good compromise. My opinion is that we will have a TD by 11PM or at last tomorrow 5AM. I cannot imagine they will wait again until the RECON to go straight to TS. Not 4 times in a row, otherwise we can erase TDs from our vocabulary...

People in Guadeloupe are not aware of 99L, but in our sister island Martinique with the traditional boat race around the island this week, the word is spreading pretty quick. Local media announced bad weather for Friday.

you're right Ouragans. But, beginning Friday, us, we have the cyclist Tour of Guadeloupe and that could pose serious troubles for the organisation... So, i hope that Meteo-France Guadeloupe don't wait too more in case of, we all know how these Invest or weak TD TS change quickly or erracticly their path. Let's wait and see.

[islandguy246]

it has my attention here in Barbados.

[ozonepete]

70% with possible TD later today or tonight? I don't think I've been wrong quite like that before.

Thanks for the comments AJC3, always informative.

I agree with the percentage chance of development with the given time frame, but what I do not agree with is the wording for tropical depression status. Given latest satellite trends, I do not see an upgrade happening at 5p or 11p tonight. I don't think that it meets the convective coverage criteria for a cyclone. I don't know, but i'm not expecting a depression when I get home from work tonight.

I think 11PM is quite possible. What you have to consider is the lessening shear later on today. That will allow for convection to blow up and stay over the center. And the convective trend in the last few hours is positive; it's increasing again and staying over the center.

[Gustywind]

70% is a good compromise. My opinion is that we will have a TD by 11PM or at last tomorrow 5AM. I cannot imagine they will wait again until the RECON to go straight to TS. Not 4 times in a row, otherwise we can erase TDs from our vocabulary...

People in Guadeloupe are not aware of 99L, but in our sister island Martinique with the traditional boat race around the island this week, the word is spreading pretty quick. Local media announced bad weather for Friday.

People in the islands should pay close attention to what is going on. I understand that in some of the islands there will be carnival partys.Well,at least I know of one person who is all over this in the butterfly island of Guadeloupe and that is our friend Gustywind.

Thanks to you Cycloneye we should add HUC too and even our new guest Ouragans from Guadeloupe . I will try to keep your informed and do my best to share the best in terms of news concerning the butterfly island. But, Ouragans is right about the traditional boat race, first let's hope a quick reaction from our Pro Mets, and second from the authorities in case of, even if we're far away from that .

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

There was evidence of a surface circulation yesterday morning...The question has been whether or not it's closed. It appears to be.

I disagree. There was evidence of a mid level circulation, but no hard evidence of a closed circulation at the surface. Even now, as I posted earlier, the LLC looks suspect, more like something trying to dig down but not quite there.

This is not a contest to see who is right or wrong, it is a friendly discussion board where everyone needs to show respect, especially to the pro-mets who volunteer their expertise here.

I have not disrespected Wxman in any way, so I don't know why that was even brought up. I enjoy his analysis, I just disagree with it. Take a look at the RGB Color Imagery Loop and tell me you don't see a low-level center.

[Kingarabian]

Really interesting shift by the models.

[SouthDadeFish]

70% with possible TD later today or tonight? I don't think I've been wrong quite like that before.

Thanks for the comments AJC3, always informative.

I agree with the percentage chance of development with the given time frame, but what I do not agree with is the wording for tropical depression status. Given latest satellite trends, I do not see an upgrade happening at 5p or 11p tonight. I don't think that it meets the convective coverage criteria for a cyclone. I don't know, but i'm not expecting a depression when I get home from work tonight.

I think 11PM is quite possible. What you have to consider is the lessening shear later on today. That will allow for convection to blow up and stay over the center. And the convective trend in the last few hours is positive; it's increasing again and staying over the center.

I completely agree Ozonepete. Nice convective burst over the last hour.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Should be enough for classification:

01/1745 UTC 12.0N 48.3W T2.0/2.0 99L -- Atlantic

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

[b]AL, 99, 2012080118, , BEST, 0, 120N, 482W, 30, 1008, LO

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest