ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Gustywind]

INTERESTS IN THE CARIBBEAN, PARTICULARLY THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WNW. FLASH FLOODING, MUDSLIDES AND MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALL REMAIN A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY AS THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES THROUGH THE ISLAND CHAIN AND ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

Where did you have this precious info?

[Gustywind]

18z Best Track

[b]AL, 99, 2012080118, , BEST, 0, 120N, 482W, 30, 1009, LO

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

Increasing numbers, and that's a big jump in latitude Cycloneye given your source and from SSD too; almost 3 degrees on latitude
01/1745 UTC 12.0N 48.3W T2.0/2.0 99L
01/1145 UTC 9.3N 45.1W T1.5/1.5 99L

[ROCK]

12Z NOGAPS still holding serve and is now the most right outlier.

[ROCK]

Should be enough for classification:

01/1745 UTC 12.0N 48.3W T2.0/2.0 99L -- Atlantic

yeah but will they do it now or wait on RECON. I dont know what it hurts to TD it for now and maybe jump to TS when RECON heads out....JMO

[SouthDadeFish]

Invest 99L has made a lot of progress since July 30th.

Here is a 4 view comparison of IR, Visible, Water Vapor, and Dvorak on the 30th:

http://instagram.com/p/NtZUopuwag/

And here is the same comparison from 17:45Z today:

http://instagram.com/p/Ny5iUKOwTB/

[ozonepete]

Well there's a lot to digest now. T2.0 with 30 knots and 1008mb is a TD for sure.

[Weatherfreak000]

Something about this doesn't smell right to me.....death ridge this season? Seems rather suspect to me....considering how far out we are in the forecast period I just can't see that forecast sticking. I think it's more likely to go out to sea than do that...

[ozonepete]

Should be enough for classification:

01/1745 UTC 12.0N 48.3W T2.0/2.0 99L -- Atlantic

yeah but will they do it now or wait on RECON. I dont know what it hurts to TD it for now and maybe jump to TS when RECON heads out....JMO

Yeah, Rock, what could it hurt? I think they go now because it's always better to go to TS from a TD for continuity's sake.

[tolakram]

Convection increasing.

[NDG]

18z Best Track

[b]AL, 99, 2012080118, , BEST, 0, 120N, 482W, 30, 1008, LO

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

I totally agree with the classification and Best Track position.
Upgrade to TD by tonight at the latest.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro loses it @ 144 hours, barely develops it.

168 hours it has it about to go over the Yucatan.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 011819
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 01 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N45W 13N47W...
TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N47W.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 12N
BETWEEN 47W AND 51W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA ELSEWHERE FROM
6N TO 16N BETWEEN 43W AND 52W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER MAY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 17 KT. ANYONE WHO LIVES IN THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND/OR WHO HAS INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[cycloneye]

18z Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 011814
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1814 UTC WED AUG 1 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992012) 20120801 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120801  1800   120802  0600   120802  1800   120803  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.0N  48.2W   12.7N  51.4W   13.4N  54.4W   14.0N  57.5W
BAMD    12.0N  48.2W   12.5N  50.1W   13.0N  51.9W   13.4N  53.7W
BAMM    12.0N  48.2W   12.6N  50.6W   13.2N  52.9W   13.7N  55.2W
LBAR    12.0N  48.2W   12.6N  50.7W   13.4N  53.4W   14.0N  56.1W
SHIP        30KTS          33KTS          37KTS          41KTS
DSHP        30KTS          33KTS          37KTS          41KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120803  1800   120804  1800   120805  1800   120806  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.7N  60.6W   16.6N  67.0W   18.7N  73.9W   20.2N  79.9W
BAMD    14.1N  55.6W   15.7N  59.3W   16.6N  62.5W   16.0N  64.6W
BAMM    14.5N  57.9W   16.7N  63.5W   19.0N  69.8W   21.0N  75.5W
LBAR    14.8N  58.8W   17.0N  64.3W   19.1N  69.9W   20.9N  73.6W
SHIP        46KTS          54KTS          59KTS          64KTS
DSHP        46KTS          54KTS          59KTS          64KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.0N LONCUR =  48.2W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =  16KT
LATM12 =  10.9N LONM12 =  45.3W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 =  16KT
LATM24 =   9.7N LONM24 =  41.7W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[Nimbus]

Well its moving out from under that heavy shear from that southern dip in the jet so the convection should be more persistent now. More importantly is the recent jump north above 12 degrees. Once the track stabilizes again so that a reasonable forecast for the islands can be estimated there is no reason for the NHC to delay upgrade.

The track could end up passing through near Barbados and all the islands on the strong side of the storm north of that will probably need at least tropical storm warnings.

[Blown Away]

NHC typically likes to hug the TVCN consensus and it has been shifting right with each run. IMO, if 99L is upgraded a track close to the 18z TVCN (gray line) will be likely.

[NDG]

Should be enough for classification:

01/1745 UTC 12.0N 48.3W T2.0/2.0 99L -- Atlantic

yeah but will they do it now or wait on RECON. I dont know what it hurts to TD it for now and maybe jump to TS when RECON heads out....JMO

IMO, the reason they may not wait to upgrade it until the recon gets there tomorrow afternoon is because it is already well within 48 hrs of possibly affecting Barbados. If there is plenty of evidence of a closed circulation and strong enough winds, why not upgrade it now and give the Islands a good 48 hrs for preprations.

[Gustywind]

18z Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 011814
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1814 UTC WED AUG 1 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992012) 20120801 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120801  1800   120802  0600   120802  1800   120803  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.0N  48.2W   12.7N  51.4W   13.4N  54.4W   14.0N  57.5W
BAMD    12.0N  48.2W   12.5N  50.1W   13.0N  51.9W   13.4N  53.7W
BAMM    12.0N  48.2W   12.6N  50.6W   13.2N  52.9W   13.7N  55.2W
LBAR    12.0N  48.2W   12.6N  50.7W   13.4N  53.4W   14.0N  56.1W
SHIP        30KTS          33KTS          37KTS          41KTS
DSHP        30KTS          33KTS          37KTS          41KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120803  1800   120804  1800   120805  1800   120806  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.7N  60.6W   16.6N  67.0W   18.7N  73.9W   20.2N  79.9W
BAMD    14.1N  55.6W   15.7N  59.3W   16.6N  62.5W   16.0N  64.6W
BAMM    14.5N  57.9W   16.7N  63.5W   19.0N  69.8W   21.0N  75.5W
LBAR    14.8N  58.8W   17.0N  64.3W   19.1N  69.9W   20.9N  73.6W
SHIP        46KTS          54KTS          59KTS          64KTS
DSHP        46KTS          54KTS          59KTS          64KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.0N LONCUR =  48.2W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR =  16KT
LATM12 =  10.9N LONM12 =  45.3W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 =  16KT
LATM24 =   9.7N LONM24 =  41.7W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   50NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


Given the new jump on the 12°N, that could maybe have some implications on the path, especially for those who live in the Leewards.

[drezee]

Should be enough for classification:

01/1745 UTC 12.0N 48.3W T2.0/2.0 99L -- Atlantic

yeah but will they do it now or wait on RECON. I dont know what it hurts to TD it for now and maybe jump to TS when RECON heads out....JMO

IMO, the reason they may not wait to upgrade it until the recon gets there tomorrow afternoon is because it is already well within 48 hrs of possibly affecting Barbados. If there is plenty of evidence of a closed circulation and strong enough winds, why not upgrade it now and give the Islands a good 48 hrs for preprations.

I agree. They should classify. The NHC practices it to the other extreme. Not classify systems that are clear if they do not effect land.

[chrisjslucia]

Should be enough for classification:

01/1745 UTC 12.0N 48.3W T2.0/2.0 99L -- Atlantic

yeah but will they do it now or wait on RECON. I dont know what it hurts to TD it for now and maybe jump to TS when RECON heads out....JMO

IMO, the reason they may not wait to upgrade it until the recon gets there tomorrow afternoon is because it is already well within 48 hrs of possibly affecting Barbados. If there is plenty of evidence of a closed circulation and strong enough winds, why not upgrade it now and give the Islands a good 48 hrs for preprations.

After the experience of Tomas in 2010, it will be interesting to see if this approach to advance warning is indeed the one that is adopted. Certainly, should 99 become a storm then for the Islands its size and potential rainfall will be a critical issue. We have had precious little rain in recent weeks and the ground is ill prepared for torrential rain. Thankfully the state of awareness of 99 is far higher than when Tomas arrived.

[NDG]

Yet more evindence of a well defined surface circulation.