ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[BigB0882]

I have some analogs of possible tracks this storm could take

If a weakness develops{Strength will a best be a low end hurricane IMO}


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _track.png

I do not want another Gustav. That was no fun and school starts back next week. Hopefully you are right that if it does come that way it will be relatively weak.

[cycloneye]

18z SHIP Forecast

Shear will not be horrible for the system down the road.

Code: Select all

                *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    * GOES AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE       *
                    *      INVEST  AL992012  08/01/12  18 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    30    32    33    35    37    41    46    50    54    56    59    61    64
V (KT) LAND       30    32    33    35    37    41    46    50    54    56    59    61    64
V (KT) LGE mod    30    32    34    35    36    38    40    42    47    52    58    65    71
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        11    13    14    16    13    16    13    10     6    15     9    15    11
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     3     9     5     2     4     0     0    -1     0     0    -2    -4     0
SHEAR DIR        300   290   290   290   277   272   273   255   261   283   273   268   268
SST (C)         27.5  27.5  27.6  27.8  28.0  28.1  28.1  28.2  28.5  28.5  28.6  28.8  28.9
POT. INT. (KT)   132   132   133   136   139   140   140   141   146   145   147   149   150
ADJ. POT. INT.   134   133   135   138   140   141   139   142   145   144   143   143   143
200 MB T (C)   -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -52.7 -52.5
TH_E DEV (C)       6     7     7     7     8     9    10    10    10    10    10     9    10
700-500 MB RH     64    61    60    59    58    55    56    56    62    59    60    62    63
GFS VTEX (KT)      9    10    10    10    11    12    12    12    12    12    11    11    13
850 MB ENV VOR     0     7     7     3    11    27    23    31    37    48    51    60    46
200 MB DIV         1    20    26    14    29    49    35    31    50    41    54    43    46
700-850 TADV     -14   -17   -12   -12   -12    -9    -5    -3     1    -2     2    -1     0
LAND (KM)        912   876   850   840   797   536   420   431   239   188    79    24    56
LAT (DEG N)     12.0  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x  xx.x
LONG(DEG W)     48.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT)    15    15    15    15    15    15    14    15    15    14    13    12    11
HEAT CONTENT      29    21    23    27    31    55    51    53    54    63    74   109    94

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16      CX,CY: -14/  5
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  713  (MEAN=623)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  29.8 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  60.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  11.  12.  12.  13.  14.
  SST POTENTIAL          1.   1.   1.   3.   6.  11.  17.  21.  25.  28.  30.  31.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.   2.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -7.  -9. -10. -12. -14. -14.
  PERSISTENCE            1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -4.  -4.  -4.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.   0.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.   5.   5.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           2.   3.   5.   7.  11.  16.  20.  24.  26.  29.  31.  34.

   ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992012     INVEST 08/01/12  18 UTC **
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   5.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  2.2
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  13.5 Range: 26.2 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  29.8 Range: 34.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.3
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  18.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.4
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 106.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.9
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  63.2 Range: 56.0 to  85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.1
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  26.2 Range:  0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.0
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  58.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.2
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    19% is   1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    11% is   1.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     2% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992012     INVEST 08/01/2012  18 UTC **
TIME(HR)   0-12  12-24(0-24)  24-36(0-36)  36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%)     0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%)      0      0(  0)       0(  0)       0(  0)     <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)


[Zanthe]

...huh. Didn't expect them to use the TD wording this early. Has a decent chance of being upgraded today, I'd say.

[cycloneye]

12z EURO into BOC in 192 hours.

[ouragans]

70% is a good compromise. My opinion is that we will have a TD by 11PM or at last tomorrow 5AM. I cannot imagine they will wait again until the RECON to go straight to TS. Not 4 times in a row, otherwise we can erase TDs from our vocabulary...

People in Guadeloupe are not aware of 99L, but in our sister island Martinique with the traditional boat race around the island this week, the word is spreading pretty quick. Local media announced bad weather for Friday.

you're right Ouragans. But, beginning Friday, us, we have the cyclist Tour of Guadeloupe and that could pose serious troubles for the organisation... So, i hope that Meteo-France Guadeloupe don't wait too more in case of, we all know how these Invest or weak TD TS change quickly or erracticly their path. Let's wait and see.

I'm not that concerned regarding the bike tour, but much more on the Tour des Yoles, because as far as can remember, the stage on Saturday is on the southern tip of Martinique.
Meteo France already advised there would be bad weather, but they did in Guadeloupe. Did they do the same in Martinique?????

@cycloneye: it's carnival in Barbados

[Kingarabian]

Euro has future Ernesto bearing down on Texas @ 216 hours.

[Hurricaneman]

Im not going to completely rule out a track north of the big islands, especially if this continues on its wnw course, the Lesser Antilles will be the first to feel the effects and from there it depends if a weakness forms whether or not it will hit Florida to New Orleans or Mexico, but if it goes north of the big islands, Florida could be looking at a decent storm in a week

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Stormlover2012]

can you post image please

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro at 216 hours


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[cycloneye]

@cycloneye: it's carnival in Barbados

Oh boy. I can't imagine for a second that they will go ahead with it with a TC approaching. They for sure will make the right decision to pospone it for a few days.

[Kingarabian]

And we have a Texas landfall in 240 hours.

216 hours:

240 hours:

[Stormlover2012]

could be a battle again GFS vs EURO LOL, going to be alot of long nights lol, basically from FL to mexico needs to pay attention

[Gustywind]

From Accuweather.com

Atlantic Tropical Storm Potential

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

Aug 1, 2012; 12:33 PM ET
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... tial/68705

The second of two strong tropical disturbances crossing the Atlantic was becoming better organized Wednesday. It appears to be a matter of time before this becomes the next tropical depression and storm of the season.

The tropical Atlantic seems to be slowly awakening from its slumber.

According to Tropical Weather Expert Dan Kottlowski, "The system now over the south-central Atlantic already has a weak circulation."

The system is much more removed from dry air and dust that has plagued the tropical development zone farther to the north in the region thus far this season.

"Satellite information has revealed some very high tops on the thunderstorms within the system's circulation," Kottlowski stated.

Thunderstorms were beginning to congregate about a center in this National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration photo taken August 1, 2012.

High cloud tops are an indication of intense thunderstorms.

The turning of these clouds in a cyclonic nature often are a precursor to tropical development within a few days.

"There is the potential for the system to soon become the Atlantic's fifth tropical depression and could garner the name Ernesto as it moves across the Lesser Antilles and the Caribbean Sea," Kottlowski said.

If it avoids the lager, mountainous islands in the Caribbean, while at the same time stays far enough away from South America, it would be a plus for development.

According to Meteorologists Mark Mancuso, "There is a tendency for tropical systems to not develop while in the eastern Caribbean, but rather before crossing the Lesser Antilles or waiting until reaching the western Caribbean, perhaps due to the proximity to the large land mass of South America."

While the most recent and ongoing tropical wave was delivering needed rains to the northern Caribbean islands, the system lurking in the shadows has the potential to cause some problems and more disruptions to daily activities if it gets going.

People in the Caribbean, Central America and along the Gulf Coast of the U.S. should continue to monitor the track and development of this system.

The feature cruising through the northern Caribbean at this time was battling some wind shear and has yet to develop a significant surface low pressure area, despite some drenching thunderstorms.

Despite the lull in activity over the past month and increasing El Niño indicators, AccuWeather.com meteorologists are anticipating an average year in terms of the number of tropical storms and hurricanes this season.

[Kingarabian]

could be a battle again GFS vs EURO LOL, going to be alot of long nights lol, basically from FL to mexico needs to pay attention

Yah but in this case the GFS and Euro relatively agree with each other.

[Stormlover2012]

yeah you are right, should be a fun week ahead if it can survive

[wxman57]

Looking quite impressive now. Though I don't think that the NHC will classify it as a TD tonight, it's POSSIBLE they could after sunrise tomorrow. More likely, they'll wait for recon tomorrow afternoon - and it could be a TS by then. Nothing to indicate hurricane intensity east of the islands. Probably a 45-50 mph TS when it passes south of St. Lucia Friday afternoon. Long range - who knows? Could just continue westward to southern MX or Central America. There might be a weakness in the ridge to its north next Wednesday which could allow for a turn into the Gulf. Can't rule that out. If it does survive and reach the western Caribbean, then it could be a hurricane.

[Blown Away]

Not saying it will happen, but similar time and location!!

[AJC3]

Boy, 99L is gaining some decent latitude today. Looks like it could easily be more impacting to the central and northern Leewards now.

[cycloneye]

Boy, 99L is gaining some decent latitude today. Looks like it could easily be more impacting to the central and northern Leewards now.

And I know what that may mean after that area.But is still early to say for sure but IMO,PR may get some bands,unless otherwise it moves more NW.

[AJC3]

Looking quite impressive now. Though I don't think that the NHC will classify it as a TD tonight, it's POSSIBLE they could after sunrise tomorrow. More likely, they'll wait for recon tomorrow afternoon - and it could be a TS by then. Nothing to indicate hurricane intensity east of the islands. Probably a 45-50 mph TS when it passes south of St. Lucia Friday afternoon. <snip>

I think it's gonna need to get back onto a short term heading of 270-275 heading pronto to pass south of Saint Lucia.