ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[RL3AO]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

You can see how quick its leaving the ITCZ. Will it start back on a more westerly track soon?

[AJC3]

Boy, 99L is gaining some decent latitude today. Looks like it could easily be more impacting to the central and northern Leewards now.

And I know what that may mean after that area.But is still early to say for sure but IMO,PR may get some bands,unless otherwise it moves more NW.

For sure. And we should hopefully see more of a turn toward true west soon. I still have a heading of 280-285 since 10Z.

[IreneSurvivor47]

5pm EDT? Will they make an announcement before that like Debby?

[cycloneye]

5pm EDT? Will they make an announcement before that like Debby?

So far no renumber has been issued and that is an indication that they will wait for the next few hours to see how the system does to then pull the trigger or not.

[IreneSurvivor47]

I am just an amateur but my gut feeling says this will be an east coast storm. TD at 8 maybe?

[Nimbus]

It will be interesting to see what the NHC decides to do with the track after Jamaica. Some of the models seem to be hinting a weakness will shift the track north through the Yucatan Channel or even over Cuba toward Florida.

[RL3AO]

I am just an amateur but my gut feeling says this will be an east coast storm. TD at 8 maybe?

Don't see how. The weather pattern does not support an east coast storm.

[ozonepete]

I am just an amateur but my gut feeling says this will be an east coast storm. TD at 8 maybe?

Gut is all you got right now. There's no way of telling yet. But I think they'll go TD at 8 or 11PM at the latest. Why wait when all of the data says it is by the standards we've come to accept?

[Stormlover2012]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


edit by tolakram, added disclaimer

yeah this wont be a east coast storm

[IreneSurvivor47]

I am just an amateur but my gut feeling says this will be an east coast storm. TD at 8 maybe?

Gut is all you got right now. There's no way of telling yet. But I think they'll go TD at 8 or 11PM at the latest. Why wait when all of the data says it is by the standards we've come to accept?

Can't wait to see the NHC track.

[cycloneye]

For those who may like to have the link to where ATCF does the Best Tracks and Renumber of systems,here it is.

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[Gustywind]

Boy, 99L is gaining some decent latitude today. Looks like it could easily be more impacting to the central and northern Leewards now.

Right, and as i mentionned it in my lasts post the big jump to the north ( from 9°N this morning to 12°N this afternoon, that's awesome) could have big implications on the path of 99L or maybe TD ? ( should it verifies first!) churning more near the Leewards even the Northern Leewards.

Sincerely, we hope not, because of Guadeloupe is suffering from an awesome poweroutage Monday due to a nasty an impressive thunderstrom ( a very active twave crossed the Leewards Monday) who destroyed an important post of electricity who alivate a few localities in the island especially Capesterre Belle Eau.

Thus, to give you an idea i decided to quote theses words from our daily article to understand what's going on on last Monday: " Evidenced by the violent fire that erupted around 19: 30, in the grounds of the position of transformation of Capesterre-Belle-Eau. Lightning strikes, particularly active and intense, caused impacts that broke up the asphalt before fall on a line voltage."A first explosion occurred on the line voltage in the River, at the level of institutions Pommez." Just after, a second has been sounded at the plant level. "It was like a firework," provided a waterfront installed on the heights of the Peru islet. Between the two events, other witnesses speak of a "flash moving in the direction of the Central". Although designed to withstand the overvoltages and therefore to storm activity, the site is, this time, wracked. About 63,000 present Volt breakers , everything suggests that they were overwhelmed by the power of lightning. Consequence: 20,000 homes on the communes of Petit-Bourg, Capesterre, Goyave and Trois-Rivières and on the island of Marie-Galante were instantly immersed in the dark". Source: http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 180504.php


Hey, should i add our Cycle Tour Guadeloupe who begin Friday and stall 9 more days (13th of August). This event is very popular in the butterfly island, that wil be inconcevable for most the citizens to miss that will be surely upset about that if any bad weather is to come this week-end, just one word Waouw, the key is under 99L hands Let's wait and see.

[ozonepete]

Can't wait to see the NHC track.

i expect it (NHC track) to go right through the middle of the islands and stay in Caribbean. If there is any more northward movement they will gradually adjust northward but no models show that right now.

[gatorcane]

12Z FIM 144 hours:

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I am just an amateur but my gut feeling says this will be an east coast storm. TD at 8 maybe?

Gut is all you got right now. There's no way of telling yet. But I think they'll go TD at 8 or 11PM at the latest. Why wait when all of the data says it is by the standards we've come to accept?

Can't wait to see the NHC track.

The 18z SHIPS was run off the OFCL track.

[hurricanes1234]

Dear Gustywind,

I combined the information from the AGTW outlook and the info from all the weather discussions to create the paragraph you replied to.

Thanks for the post

[gatorcane]

Boy, 99L is gaining some decent latitude today. Looks like it could easily be more impacting to the central and northern Leewards now.

And I know what that may mean after that area.But is still early to say for sure but IMO,PR may get some bands,unless otherwise it moves more NW.

For sure. And we should hopefully see more of a turn toward true west soon. I still have a heading of 280-285 since 10Z.

Yes its definitely gaining lattitude. The CMC has been good with this system so far...note the GFS and ECMWF models from two days ago had this on a due west course.

The CMC once showed it going NE of the Leewards a couple of days ago but had it in the general direction of the Northern Leewards/Puerto Rico area with a general WNW heading throughout in the MDR through the Leewards.

Plus the CMC was more bullish on quicker development in the MDR which seems to be verifying so far.

[Blown Away]

TropicalAnalystwx13 you nailed it! Very close to that IMO. Follow TVCN consensus!!

[cycloneye]

TVCN?

[IreneSurvivor47]

I strongly disagree with the central America landfall.