ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Stormlover2012]

keep the images coming u are the man!!

[tolakram]

I strongly disagree with the central America landfall.

Care to explain why?

[RL3AO]

I strongly disagree with the central America landfall.

You state you have a strong opinion. Why do you think it won't go into Central America?

[timmeister]

12Z FIM 144 hours:

This track with this model is very similar to Hurricane Allen in 1980. Allen developed on July 31 1980 and became a TD on August 1st 1980.

[leanne_uk]

Got word from Grenada. They are aware of the system and it us being closely monitored. They have been warned to expect possible heavy rains and gusty conditions but Tgeu are expecting the system to track north of the island.

[wxman57]

TVCN?

TVCN is over northern St. Lucia (or near the north coast of St. Lucia) then WNW to south of Jamaica. The track posted above is the LGEM on the model guidance. Given its current latitude, it could track just north of St. Lucia.

[cycloneye]

TVCN?

TVCN is over northern St. Lucia (or near the north coast of St. Lucia) then WNW to south of Jamaica. The track posted above is the LGEM on the model guidance.

Thank you for the claricifation.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

AL, 05, 2012080118, , BEST, 0, 120N, 482W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FIVE, M

[Evil Jeremy]

Renumber!

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET:

[IreneSurvivor47]

I strongly disagree with the central America landfall.

Care to explain why?

A. Models don't take it here. Ensemble likes this area though.
B. As far as I know(not much)the steering currents don't take it here.
C.As lame as it is ; gut.

[cycloneye]

Renumber!

AL, 05, 2012080118, , BEST, 0, 120N, 482W, 30, 1008, TD

[AJC3]

1857Z SSMI pass...

[gatorcane]

Guess we are getting a 5pmEST package from NHC!

Given the SAT imagery, I would say it is warranted, as it is definitely organizing.

[IreneSurvivor47]

Guess we are getting a 5pmEST package from NHC!

Aka TD5?

[wxman57]

I certainly see no reason to rule out a Central American impact (which includes Belize). Nor would I absolutely rule out any Florida threat, though I don't think the ridge to its north will allow a turn to Florida. For now, somewhere between east of Nicaragua and southern Cuba looks likely around next Tue/Wed.

Oh, just noticed new model guidance has "Five".

[SouthFLTropics]

And so it begins...Like clockwork on August 1st we will get a classified system. Hope everyone is well rested because the next 2-3 months will most likely result in tons of sleepless nights model watching and having wobble wars!!!

SFT

[Kingarabian]

Woohoo here we go!

[IreneSurvivor47]

I certainly see no reason to rule out a Central American impact (which includes Belize). Nor would I absolutely rule out any Florida threat, though I don't think the ridge to its north will allow a turn to Florida. For now, somewhere between east of Nicaragua and southern Cuba looks likely around next Tue/Wed.

Oh, just noticed new model guidance has "Five".

Bad wording...I doubt it is what I meant.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 012009
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2009 UTC WED AUG 1 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE (AL052012) 20120801 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120801 1800 120802 0600 120802 1800 120803 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.0N 48.2W 12.7N 51.4W 13.4N 54.4W 14.0N 57.5W
BAMD 12.0N 48.2W 12.5N 50.1W 13.0N 51.9W 13.4N 53.7W
BAMM 12.0N 48.2W 12.6N 50.6W 13.2N 52.9W 13.7N 55.2W
LBAR 12.0N 48.2W 12.6N 50.7W 13.4N 53.4W 14.0N 56.1W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 37KTS 41KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 37KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120803 1800 120804 1800 120805 1800 120806 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.7N 60.6W 16.6N 67.0W 18.7N 73.9W 20.2N 79.9W
BAMD 14.1N 55.6W 15.7N 59.3W 16.6N 62.5W 16.0N 64.6W
BAMM 14.5N 57.9W 16.7N 63.5W 19.0N 69.8W 21.0N 75.5W
LBAR 14.8N 58.8W 17.0N 64.3W 19.1N 69.9W 20.9N 73.6W
SHIP 46KTS 54KTS 59KTS 64KTS
DSHP 46KTS 54KTS 59KTS 64KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.0N LONCUR = 48.2W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 10.9N LONM12 = 45.3W DIRM12 = 290DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 9.7N LONM24 = 41.7W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM