ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[IreneSurvivor47]

1st CV depression. Finally, something to track!!!

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Invest 99L is very close to tropical depression status. It will attain it later today or tonight before strengthening into Tropical Storm Ernesto tomorrow. It will further become a severe tropical storm as it passes through the Windward Islands around 13N, and remain steady/strengthen slightly through its pass in the central Caribbean. Faster intensification begins in the West Caribbean.

Hopefully I'm wrong about the above (from earlier). If this makes it to the West Caribbean, it could end up strengthening significantly and be a big problem for somebody.

[CrazyC83]

Just we need to pray for the islands that it doesn't become too bad.

[Shuriken]

Well-developed LLCC....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[IreneSurvivor47]

Am I going crazy?! I said that in 20 mins we'll see an nhc track.

[IreneSurvivor47]

Am I going crazy?! I said that in 20 mins we'll see an nhc track.

Who's taken my past two posts off?

[RL3AO]

Moderators will delete posts that are off topic or that are "one liners" - aka posts that are too short to be of any use and just clog up the thread.

[IreneSurvivor47]

Moderators will delete posts that are off topic or that are "one liners" - aka posts that are too short to be of any use and just clog up the thread.

Thank you very informative. So are we going to see an nhc track in a few minutes?

[TheBurn]

20:00 UTC Multi-Sensor Precipitation Estimate

[RL3AO]

Thank you very informative. So are we going to see an nhc track in a few minutes?

Advisory will be out between 4:45 and 5:00 unless they got a late start on it or need to figure out watches with all of those governments of the islands.

[IreneSurvivor47]

TD five in a few minutes... Perhaps we'll see a track into central America and I'll be wrong.

[Evil Jeremy]

Moderators will delete posts that are off topic or that are "one liners" - aka posts that are too short to be of any use and just clog up the thread.

Thank you very informative. So are we going to see an nhc track in a few minutes?

We should. If the NHC follows the TCVN, which they do 99% of the time, the track should show a path through the Caribbean. The TCVN ended at Jamaica.

[northjaxpro]

NHC will issue an official advisory on this system around 5:00 or shortly thereafter IreneSurvivor. Included in the advisory package will be a projected 5-day track from NHC.

[NDG]

I certainly see no reason to rule out a Central American impact (which includes Belize). Nor would I absolutely rule out any Florida threat, though I don't think the ridge to its north will allow a turn to Florida. For now, somewhere between east of Nicaragua and southern Cuba looks likely around next Tue/Wed.

Oh, just noticed new model guidance has "Five".

I would not rule out a FL threat or even a mid Atlantic threat because of the persistent weakness across the eastern US down to FL, but if it was to threaten FL it will have a lot of land interaction to go through from the angle it would be coming from.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[gatorcane]

I would think NHC would follow the consensus model (grey line) very closely on this first advisory:

[MiamiensisWx]

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 PM AST WED AUG 01 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...

Link

[Evil Jeremy]

Advisory out, day 5 point just south of Jamaica (17.5N 78.0W).

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
2100 UTC WED AUG 01 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
ST. LUCIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 49.0W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 49.0W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 48.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.7N 51.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.3N 54.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.8N 57.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.4N 60.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.5N 67.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 16.5N 73.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 17.5N 78.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 49.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 PM AST WED AUG 01 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 49.0W
ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
ST. LUCIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.0 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30
KM/H...AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE NEAR THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON
THURSDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
ON FRIDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[floridasun78]

Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Weather Outlook (en Español*)
200 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012 Tropical Weather Discussion
205 PM EDT WED AUG 01 2012
Tropical Depression FIVE RSS Feed icon NESDIS Satellite | NDBC Obs | Storm Archive
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS..

[ouragans]

I just received a non-official information for Guadeloupe stating all events, including sport events, would be cancelled on Saturday due to TD5/E...

At this time, no news from Martinique