ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[IreneSurvivor47]

5 looks a little sheared on the northern part, or is it just me?

Maybe a little, only now that you mention it, but it should lighten over the next 12 hours.

[floridasun78]

Who thinks this has near 0% chance to be a new England storm?

very unlikely

[somethingfunny]

Let's try and focus on the next few days and what sort of impact this system will have on the Windward/Leeward Islands, before we start talking about the way distant future, folks.

[AHS2011]

5 looks a little sheared on the northern part, or is it just me?

Maybe a little, only now that you mention it, but it should lighten over the next 12 hours.

Do you know an official shear forecast that I could look at?

[RL3AO]

The NHC's five day forecasts have average errors of hundreds of miles. To try to guess what may happen in 10 days in the tropics basically is going to cause more harm then good. We could be tracking this for 10 to 14 days. Don't get too far ahead of yourself.

[tolakram]

5 looks a little sheared on the northern part, or is it just me?

Maybe a little, only now that you mention it, but it should lighten over the next 12 hours.

Do you know an official shear forecast that I could look at?

All shear forecasts are horrible, bar none. With that out of the way, you can see what the models think here: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

In the field dropdown for the model select 850-200ms shear, and step forward to get an idea what the model thinks shear will be.

[MGC]

Rather surprised the NHC upgraded 99L this afternoon.....I figured they would wait for recon...just goes to show you can never guess what the NHC is going to do.

Looking at the long range forecast track......not liking it at all. If the system does indeed follow this track, it looks like future Ernesto might shoot the gap and head straight through the Yucatan Channel....of course this pure speculation.....but it does look that there is a high probability that we could have a Gulf storm in a week or so.

The depression looks to be in a fairly decent environment. Would not be surprised if the system is a strong TS by the time it reaches the Leewards.

Of course the above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[RL3AO]

5 looks a little sheared on the northern part, or is it just me?

Maybe a little, only now that you mention it, but it should lighten over the next 12 hours.

Do you know an official shear forecast that I could look at?

You could use the ships model output.

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 37 41 46 50 54 56 59 61 64
V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 37 41 46 50 54 56 59 61 64
V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 36 38 40 42 47 52 58 65 71
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 11 13 14 16 13 16 13 10 6 15 9 15 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 9 5 2 4 0 0 -1 0 0 -2 -4 0
SHEAR DIR 300 290 290 290 277 272 273 255 261 283 273 268 268

But I wouldn't put much stock into it. Shear forecasts are very difficult to make.

[Hurricane Alexis]

So what are the chances it makes a run towards Florida in the next 10 days?

[Blown Away]

Same day, most of the models went from skirting the north coast of SA and driving 99L in lower CA, to moving near Jamaica. Pretty significant shift north in a few hours.

[RL3AO]

So what are the chances it makes a run towards Florida in the next 10 days?

Possible but certainly not the most probably scenario. Just keep your eye on it over the next few days.

[tolakram]

So what are the chances it makes a run towards Florida in the next 10 days?

Too early to tell. Keep watching the NHC track and we'll have a better idea once it gets closer.

[IreneSurvivor47]

Why is the storm forecasted to go west? It looks like it's headed slightly more north than that.

[PTrackerLA]

This part of the NHC discussion is particularly alarming with the NW movement and weakness in the gulf mentioned. Could be the same weakness returning to the Gulf states that has given us a very wet summer?

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/16. GLOBAL MODELS
DEPICT A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS STEERING PATTERN
SHOULD CAUSE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE
SAME SPEED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAKNESS OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD CAUSE SOME SLOWING AND BIT OF A
NORTHWESTWARD TURN LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NOT FAR FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.

[knotimpaired]

The NHC's five day forecasts have average errors of hundreds of miles. To try to guess what may happen in 10 days in the tropics basically is going to cause more harm then good. We could be tracking this for 10 to 14 days. Don't get too far ahead of yourself.

I totally agree with you.

For those of us that live down here, nothing is written on the wall until it passes west of our islands, then we can start speculating on its future, but normally a day at a time.

[RL3AO]

Why is the storm forecasted to go west? It looks like it's headed slightly more north than that.

Mostly because its in the process of disconnecting from the ITCZ.

[IreneSurvivor47]

This part of the NHC discussion is particularly alarming with the NW movement and weakness in the gulf mentioned. Could be the same weakness returning to the Gulf states that has given us a very wet summer?

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/16. GLOBAL MODELS
DEPICT A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS STEERING PATTERN
SHOULD CAUSE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE
SAME SPEED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAKNESS OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD CAUSE SOME SLOWING AND BIT OF A
NORTHWESTWARD TURN LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NOT FAR FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.

In other words the storm will curve out to sea or be an east coast storm? Sorry, didn't understand that.

[RL3AO]

In other words the storm will curve out to sea or be an east coast storm? Sorry, didn't understand that.

Its saying it could start to move more north and maybe enter the gulf of mexico late in the period.

[ROCK]

glad we have our first TD of the season, officially anyway....

Does look a bit ragged this evening but a TD nonetheless....I cant wait for the model wars Weather Freak...

[mcheer23]

This part of the NHC discussion is particularly alarming with the NW movement and weakness in the gulf mentioned. Could be the same weakness returning to the Gulf states that has given us a very wet summer?

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/16. GLOBAL MODELS
DEPICT A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS STEERING PATTERN
SHOULD CAUSE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE
SAME SPEED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAKNESS OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD CAUSE SOME SLOWING AND BIT OF A
NORTHWESTWARD TURN LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NOT FAR FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.

In other words the storm will curve out to sea or be an east coast storm? Sorry, didn't understand that.

No...Curve more to the NW at days 4-5 and beyond