ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Blinhart]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

First off, I would like to say best wishes go out to all the people of the ABC's and all the Islands that are in the line of fire of the future TC Ernesto. Now I think this will be an intriguing 10 to 14 days of watching the models and the progression of this TC. Will this system stay moving W and head into Central America, or will it stay on the Extrapolation that this system right now and heads just North of all the islands and move into the central GOM, or will the model consensus play out and the NHC will get it right.

Now if I was just going by my gut feeling with a little understanding of all the weather factors currently and in the future that is effecting TD #5/ future Ernesto, this is what I think might happen. I think TD5 will slowly strengthen over the next couple days to a TS (winds around 50) Ernesto as it goes over the Islands at a steady pace of around 15 mph at a movement around 280 degrees, then it steadily moves at a pace around 13 mph at a movement of around 275 degrees until he is just south of Jamaica on or about Wednesday getting close to Hurricane strength. After this it is very problematic, I think Ernesto will slow down to about 8 mph (or slower) at a movement of about 300 degrees and slowly strengthens this movement will probably be for the next day or two until Ernesto gets to around the Yucatan Channel at a low end Cat 2 Hurricane. Now does the weakness in the trough be big enough for Ernesto to move in a more poleward movement, I think so, so starting around Friday next week Ernesto will move at a direction of about 345 degrees and will go through RI and be a Cat 4 Hurricane by next Saturday Morning and be about 250 miles south of New Orleans, and then the ridge will build back in and kick Ernest on a little more Westerly track and make land fall On about August 13 in between Sabine Pass, TX. and Intercoastal City, La. as a high end Cat 3, low end Cat 4.

Once again this is only my opinion and most likely wrong.

[Weatherfreak000]

I gotta tell ya ROCK, given the tight consensus with King GFS and the pauper EURO ( I kid), how could NHC not go with a similar track? NHC seems to account for intensity uncertainty by showing generally a gradual move to hurricane...that's suspect and the NHC knows it, there is just no intensity forecast besides that which would be consistent. It's gonna stay weak if the models are right, and so long as it stays weak, it'll plow right into the Yucatan...then what?

Point here is, I think I personally have seen enough forecast cones just like this to suggest it's more likely than not it's coming to the GOM.


Just an opinion no forecast. See S2K Disclaimer at top of page.

[Weatherfreak000]

TD 5 looking a bit ragged tonight....convective pattern however resembles the nice comma shape, NHC probably will go to Ernesto tomorrow morning. Diurnal maxima will refire this bad boy and then who knows? That wave behind it doesn't look half bad either, season is definitely on now.

[tolakram]

I gotta tell ya ROCK, given the tight consensus with King GFS and the pauper EURO ( I kid), how could NHC not go with a similar track? NHC seems to account for intensity uncertainty by showing generally a gradual move to hurricane...that's suspect and the NHC knows it, there is just no intensity forecast besides that which would be consistent. It's gonna stay weak if the models are right, and so long as it stays weak, it'll plow right into the Yucatan...then what?

Point here is, I think I personally have seen enough forecast cones just like this to suggest it's more likely than not it's coming to the GOM.


Just an opinion no forecast. See S2K Disclaimer at top of page.

I would counter that this is similar to Dean and Felix with the same type of argument. Way to early to make any likely statement.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ROCK]

I gotta tell ya ROCK, given the tight consensus with King GFS and the pauper EURO ( I kid), how could NHC not go with a similar track? NHC seems to account for intensity uncertainty by showing generally a gradual move to hurricane...that's suspect and the NHC knows it, there is just no intensity forecast besides that which would be consistent. It's gonna stay weak if the models are right, and so long as it stays weak, it'll plow right into the Yucatan...then what?

Point here is, I think I personally have seen enough forecast cones just like this to suggest it's more likely than not it's coming to the GOM.


Just an opinion no forecast. See S2K Disclaimer at top of page.

I agree... no doubt in my mind its GOM bound be it BOC, SGOM, SE GOM....252hr is still la la land even for the GFS for a final destination though....lots of uncertainty after day 5 for sure....

Just an opinion no forecast. See S2K Disclaimer at top of page

[cycloneye]

WTNT35 KNHC 012354
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
800 PM AST WED AUG 01 2012

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 49.8W
ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30
KM/H...AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE NEAR THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON
THURSDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
ON FRIDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 49.8W
ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[boca]

The bottom line is will this storm act like Dean or felix from 2007 or will a weakness develop and also what the weather models show rite now 5 days from now might be totally different even 2 or 3 days from now.I don't think that this storm will bury its self in Central America.I agree with Rock and weatherfreak000 about this being GOM bound.

[christchurchguy]

Mid Level Shear chart

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=midshr&zoom=&time=

looks like about 30knots

[ROCK]

TD 5 looking a bit ragged tonight....convective pattern however resembles the nice comma shape, NHC probably will go to Ernesto tomorrow morning. Diurnal maxima will refire this bad boy and then who knows? That wave behind it doesn't look half bad either, season is definitely on now.

that shear to the north is doing a number for sure.....it is refiring though with another GCANE "hot tower alert"....

[christchurchguy]

Is it likely that the shear causes relocations further south? Like it did with debby?

[Weatherfreak000]

TD 5 looking a bit ragged tonight....convective pattern however resembles the nice comma shape, NHC probably will go to Ernesto tomorrow morning. Diurnal maxima will refire this bad boy and then who knows? That wave behind it doesn't look half bad either, season is definitely on now.

that shear to the north is doing a number for sure.....it is refiring though with another GCANE "hot tower alert"....

Ehh....not so sure ROCK....he's definitely firing off an outflow boundary on his North side. I'm starting to worry about him frankly. El Nino conditions out there perhaps? There has to be a reason GFS and EURO keep this weak with something like a 16-18% chance of RI. That's at least high enough to believe it can blow up quickly.

[AHS2011]

TD 5 looking a bit ragged tonight....convective pattern however resembles the nice comma shape, NHC probably will go to Ernesto tomorrow morning. Diurnal maxima will refire this bad boy and then who knows? That wave behind it doesn't look half bad either, season is definitely on now.

that shear to the north is doing a number for sure.....it is refiring though with another GCANE "hot tower alert"....

Ehh....not so sure ROCK....he's definitely firing off an outflow boundary on his North side. I'm starting to worry about him frankly. El Nino conditions out there perhaps? There has to be a reason GFS and EURO keep this weak with something like a 16-18% chance of RI. That's at least high enough to believe it can blow up quickly.

Pardon me Weatherfreak, but where have you found the chances of rapid intensification?

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 05, 2012080200, , BEST, 0, 124N, 498W, 30, 1008, TD

No changes in intensity nor pressure.

[cycloneye]

00z Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 020030
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0030 UTC THU AUG 2 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE (AL052012) 20120802 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120802  0000   120802  1200   120803  0000   120803  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.4N  49.8W   13.3N  53.0W   14.2N  55.9W   15.2N  59.1W
BAMD    12.4N  49.8W   12.9N  51.7W   13.6N  53.3W   14.3N  55.1W
BAMM    12.4N  49.8W   13.1N  52.3W   13.8N  54.6W   14.7N  57.2W
LBAR    12.4N  49.8W   13.0N  52.4W   13.8N  55.0W   14.5N  57.8W
SHIP        30KTS          31KTS          34KTS          38KTS
DSHP        30KTS          31KTS          34KTS          38KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120804  0000   120805  0000   120806  0000   120807  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.2N  62.1W   18.6N  68.8W   20.7N  75.5W   21.9N  81.4W
BAMD    15.1N  56.7W   16.4N  59.8W   16.4N  62.1W   15.5N  63.7W
BAMM    15.7N  59.8W   17.8N  65.2W   19.9N  71.2W   21.3N  76.9W
LBAR    15.5N  60.4W   17.7N  65.6W   20.4N  70.3W   22.3N  70.7W
SHIP        43KTS          51KTS          59KTS          69KTS
DSHP        43KTS          51KTS          59KTS          69KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.4N LONCUR =  49.8W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =  16KT
LATM12 =  11.4N LONM12 =  46.7W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 =  15KT
LATM24 =  10.3N LONM24 =  43.6W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[cycloneye]

If the SHIP shear forecast is right,this Cyclone should not have big problems down the road with Upper Winds. Here is the 00z.

Code: Select all

SHEAR (KT)        16    17    17    14    14    14    10    10     4    12     2     7     4

[Zanthe]

If the SHIP shear forecast is right,this Cyclone should not have big problems down the road with Upper Winds. Here is the 00z.

Code: Select all

SHEAR (KT)        16    17    17    14    14    14    10    10     4    12     2     7     4

If that's right, it could be sort of scary down the road.

[Weatherfreak000]

Model consensus is taking him in below Jamaica. That would suggest it may intensify in the Caribbean, which always tends to spin up powerful storms. With not only very warm water, but deep and abundant and with the exception of islands like Jamaica, devoid of much land interaction.

[Gustywind]

If the SHIP shear forecast is right,this Cyclone should not have big problems down the road with Upper Winds. Here is the 00z.

Code: Select all

SHEAR (KT)        16    17    17    14    14    14    10    10     4    12     2     7     4

OK Cycloneye , but these numbers are a %? or not? How understand these? Thanks to you.

[JamesCaneTracker]

If the SHIP shear forecast is right,this Cyclone should not have big problems down the road with Upper Winds. Here is the 00z.

Code: Select all

SHEAR (KT)        16    17    17    14    14    14    10    10     4    12     2     7     4

OK Cycloneye , but these numbers are a %? or not? How understand these? Thanks to you.

It's the amount of shear in Kts at the giving time... So that last one is only 4kts of shear at the end even at it's highest of 17kts that shouldn't be enough to kill td5. It will be enough to keep it in check but that's about it.