ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[ROCK]

If the SHIP shear forecast is right,this Cyclone should not have big problems down the road with Upper Winds. Here is the 00z.

Code: Select all

SHEAR (KT)        16    17    17    14    14    14    10    10     4    12     2     7     4

OK Cycloneye , but these numbers are a %? or not? How understand these? Thanks to you.

It's the amount of shear in Kts at the giving time... So that last one is only 4kts of shear at the end even at it's highest of 17kts that shouldn't be enough to kill td5. It will be enough to keep it in check but that's about it.

that is huge given earlier SHIPS shear forecasts. At one time it was in the upper 20's to 40's....no wonder the GFS comes out stronger...

[cycloneye]

If the SHIP shear forecast is right,this Cyclone should not have big problems down the road with Upper Winds. Here is the 00z.

Code: Select all

SHEAR (KT)        16    17    17    14    14    14    10    10     4    12     2     7     4

OK Cycloneye , but these numbers are a %? or not? How understand these? Thanks to you.

Is in kts. Here is the link to this 00z that I forgot to post.

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/12080 ... _ships.txt

[ROCK]

The 0Z CMC is on there as well. Still wants to take it to the Bahamas but has a left bend at the end.

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah if you look at the upper low over the the western carrib and florida straights it is what aided the convection from the first wave that passed through the eastern carrib. well that upper low has not moved as forecast and the environment in the eastern carrib and the islands appears to be conducive and shoul remain that way.

[TwisterFanatic]

That time a year again, huh?

[Gustywind]

If the SHIP shear forecast is right,this Cyclone should not have big problems down the road with Upper Winds. Here is the 00z.

Code: Select all

SHEAR (KT)        16    17    17    14    14    14    10    10     4    12     2     7     4

OK Cycloneye , but these numbers are a %? or not? How understand these? Thanks to you.

Is in kts. Here is the link to this 00z that I forgot to post.

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/12080 ... _ships.txt

Oh thanks for the explanation

[SFLcane]

This thing looks rather pathetic to me this evening with its asymmetrical appearance. Shear from the WSW appears to be affecting the northern portion of the storm courtesy of the TUTT to its north.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-wv.html

[Blinhart]

[/quote]

I know its early, but one of those spaghetti model legs has it going right over my head, and another has it going just a hundred miles to my East, and another I can't tell because it ends in the Gulf about 125 miles SW of my house. I hope these change, and not become a common thing.

[boca]

http://oi48.tinypic.com/l8yfn.jpg

I know its early, but one of those spaghetti model legs has it going right over my head, and another has it going just a hundred miles to my East, and another I can't tell because it ends in the Gulf about 125 miles SW of my house. I hope these change, and not become a common thing.[/quote]

Those spaghetti models will change daily trust me on that dont worry is 3000 miles away from LA right now.

[hurricanes1234]

What happened to the lovely, organized TD 5 that we saw earlier today?! Could somebody please answer this?! Its center today was closed with deep convection, now it is exposed with warming cloudtops and seems to be degenerating!

[SFLcane]

What happened to the lovely, organized TD 5 that we saw earlier today?! Could somebody please answer this?!

Sat appearance continues to degrade.. as i mentioned in another wxforum its quite possible shear in the low-mid levels isn't being captured by the 850-200 mb shear metric.

[Aric Dunn]

The center is fully exposed at the moment.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

however its actually moving quite a bit faster already about to cross the 6z forecast position. Just about 5 hours early. this increase speed favors the gfs solution and the environment being more conducive as it approaches the islands.

[NDG]

Shear is hitting it hard tonight, northern half of the circulation is now fairly much exposed, no wonder the 00z ships do not intensifies it much if any over the next 24 hrs.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

[ROCK]

those are just GFS ensemble runs....nothing to be alarmed about...

[cycloneye]

I am sure as always he does,NHC forecaster Stacey Stewart will do a long discussion to elaborate on the enviroment down the road for this cyclone.

[boca]

I wonder if TD 5 will degenerate into a wave again.

[mcheer23]

Shear hitting TD 5. I expect it to relax just enough for TD 5 to get going a bit

[SoupBone]

I wonder if TD 5 will degenerate into a wave again.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't some earlier models suggest this?

[Dean4Storms]

I'm not buying the solutions once it gets into the western Carib Sea. Much of the reason for both the GFS and ECMWF moving it continually westward is due to them keeping the Storm relatively weak and we all know the inability of these models at determining intensity especially this far out in time. I believe a stronger storm begins to take shape near Jamaica and especially west of Jamaica and with the persistent weakness between the Atlantic Ridge and the Plains ridge centered across the central Gulf Coast extending down into the central Gulf I believe this weakness is enough to turn a stronger system northward. I'm simply not buying a weak TS all the way across the Carib. Sea and the Atlantic Ridge is just not making it all the way across the Gulf.

This is my personal opinion and is not to be construed as an official forecast or source.

[brunota2003]

If TD #5 survives the next 24 hours...shear will drop, heat content will sky rocket, water temperatures will go up, and things will most likely get very interesting intensity wise.