ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

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Re: ATL: FIVE - Models

#641 Postby Blinhart » Wed Aug 01, 2012 8:52 pm

ROCK wrote:those are just GFS ensemble runs....nothing to be alarmed about... :D


I know that, just saying I hope they don't continue showing it. I've seen them change every time the models come out, just saying I don't want to see it consistently. That is when it gets a little unnerving.
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Re:

#642 Postby boca » Wed Aug 01, 2012 8:53 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:I'm not buying the solutions once it gets into the western Carib Sea. Much of the reason for both the GFS and ECMWF moving it continually westward is due to them keeping the Storm relatively weak and we all know the inability of these models at determining intensity especially this far out in time. I believe a stronger storm begins to take shape near Jamaica and especially west of Jamaica and with the persistent weakness between the Atlantic Ridge and the Plains ridge centered across the central Gulf Coast extending down into the central Gulf I believe this weakness is enough to turn a stronger system northward. I'm simply not buying a weak TS all the way across the Carib. Sea and the Atlantic Ridge is just not making it all the way across the Gulf.

This is my personal opinion and is not to be construed as an official forecast or source.


If the shear can lessen up a bit then a stronger storm would feel the weaknes lets see if it even holds together.
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#643 Postby NDG » Wed Aug 01, 2012 9:03 pm

I get the feeling that on the next update by the NHC, their intensity forecast for the short term is not going to be as aggressive for the next 24 hrs as the previous forecast.
The official intensity forecast is pretty much an oulier now over the next 48 hrs or so.
I think that with the way is looking tonight and tonight's intensity models not as aggressive as earlier they may wait until the recon goes in there tomorrow to confirm if it has become a Tropical Storm or not before upgrading it.

Image

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Re: Re:

#644 Postby Cyclenall » Wed Aug 01, 2012 9:10 pm

I'm surprised at how vague the NHC discussion was for TD5. No mention of any other models other than the GFS and Euro, no talk about conditions in the Caribbean specifically, and a surprising "We will see" comment at the end. I was surprised it became a tropical cyclone this early and if it becomes a TS tonight, that would surpass 90% of the users who thought it would become a TS later.

wxman57 wrote:Based on what? We have no strong indication of a surface circulation. Convection remains quite disorganized, even less so than yesterday. There's no way it will be classified as a TD today. Possibly tomorrow afternoon at the earliest, assuming it gets its act together today/tonight. But it's not showing any sign of rapid organization at this time.

Hours later it became a tropical depression.

wxman57 wrote:Oh, just noticed new model guidance has "Five".

"No way." :) What's your take on the developments?
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Re: ATL: FIVE - Tropical Depression

#645 Postby MiamiensisWx » Wed Aug 01, 2012 9:15 pm

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The center appears to be moving somewhat faster and closer to 275°, or just north of due west, on the latest satellite frames. The trend coincides with further decreases in convection due to dry air SW of the upper-level low in the Central North Atlantic. Also notable is the increasingly elongated cloud structure due to the expected increase in vertical wind shear. As the system has thus far been an immature one, even 24 hours in which the semi-exposed center outruns the convection (and decouples from the mid-level circulation) could significantly delay development, if not destroy the system, especially as easterly winds will increase as the low-level ridge builds in from the east. Given the trends and climatology, I have revised my expectations and do not really expect TS development until after three days, and even so, the environment just becomes more uncertain farther in time. I think there is a 60% chance that this system will dissipate in less than 48 hours, as the dry air and high shear will remain for two (in the case of the shear, three) more days.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html
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#646 Postby NDG » Wed Aug 01, 2012 9:25 pm

If somebody would had told me a few days ago that conditions in the Caribbean were going to be this good tonigh I would had believed it, somehow conditions in that area have really improved thus why intensity models and now the GFS do not kill TD5 once it enters the Caribbean Friday night. But that remains to be seen as we know that UL shear is very hard to forecast.

Image
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#647 Postby JonathanBelles » Wed Aug 01, 2012 9:29 pm

So, I'll admit my mistakes. Over the last day or so, I was pretty strong-armed on 99L becoming a cyclone on Thursday. Well, based on satellite when I left for work today at 2p, which consisted of a strong ball of convection and a half naked swirl, I kept that belief. TD5 looks a lot better tonight and obviously I was wrong, and I will writing an update with the 11pm NHC information before midnight.
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#648 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 01, 2012 9:34 pm

12Z FIM 240 hours very close to the ECMWF and GFS on track and intensity. In fact remarkably good agreement between them:

Image
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Re: ATL: FIVE - Tropical Depression

#649 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 01, 2012 9:38 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: FIVE- Advisories

#650 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 01, 2012 9:40 pm

WTNT35 KNHC 020240
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 PM AST WED AUG 01 2012

...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 50.6W
ABOUT 700 MI...1130 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30
KM/H...AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE NEAR THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
ON FRIDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


WTNT45 KNHC 020240
TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
1100 PM AST WED AUG 01 2012

SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPRESSION HAS WANED. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR CONVECTION
TO FLUCTUATE IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK AND DEVELOPING TROPICAL
CYCLONES. EROSION OF THE INNER CORE CONVECTION IS ALSO LIKELY DUE
TO THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT
AS NOTED IN VARIOUS WATER VAPOR PRODUCTS OVER THE PAST 8 HOURS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A
UW-CIMSS ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.2/32 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/16 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD....WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE
DEPRESSION MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH
120 H. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND LIES NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS DUE
TO THE MORE SOUTHERLY GFDL MODEL TRACK THAT IS CONSIDERED TO BE AN
OUTLIER DUE TO IT DEPICTING A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM THAN FORECAST.

ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT PROCESS ABATES...
CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER SINCE THE SYSTEM STILL
HAS A VERY ROBUST CIRCULATION AS NOTED IN RECENT SSMI AND AMSU
MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...MORE SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WHEN THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER
THE WARMER CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND
ENVIRONMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY
FORECAST MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 12.6N 50.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 13.0N 53.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 13.6N 56.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 14.2N 59.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 14.7N 62.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 15.8N 68.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 16.8N 74.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 17.8N 78.7W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: ATL: FIVE - Tropical Depression

#651 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Wed Aug 01, 2012 9:48 pm

MiamiensisWx wrote:
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


The center appears to be moving somewhat faster and closer to 275°, or just north of due west, on the latest satellite frames. The trend coincides with further decreases in convection due to dry air SW of the upper-level low in the Central North Atlantic. Also notable is the increasingly elongated cloud structure due to the expected increase in vertical wind shear. As the system has thus far been an immature one, even 24 hours in which the semi-exposed center outruns the convection (and decouples from the mid-level circulation) could significantly delay development, if not destroy the system, especially as easterly winds will increase as the low-level ridge builds in from the east. Given the trends and climatology, I have revised my expectations and do not really expect TS development until after three days, and even so, the environment just becomes more uncertain farther in time. I think there is a 60% chance that this system will dissipate in less than 48 hours, as the dry air and high shear will remain for two (in the case of the shear, three) more days.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html


Well first post on here since the Debby model debacle :roll: Anyway have to lean with Miami Wx on this. TD 5 looks terrible. Shear is stripping any convection that attempts to fire right off. Looked much better earlier today. Would not be surprised if this doesnt survive the night and opens back into a wave. Maybe a couple days from now condtions might improve but the huge ULL in the central atl will keep this in check or kill it. As for all the new posters talking east coast runner, cat 4 or 3 into texas or north gulf coast region, c'mon get real. This is 10 days away from the US. Hell once a storm is in the gulf the forecast is still usually wrong intensity and/or track wise. Just go back to Debby. Just try and be reasonable and ask questions but not throw out 10 day forecast that are nothing but a guess. Makes reading the threads kind of not fun. Maybe the mods can handle some of this before business picks up if this does intensify and continues w/wnw
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Re: ATL: FIVE - Models

#652 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Wed Aug 01, 2012 9:58 pm

Blinhart wrote:Image



Looks like alot of us have some watching to do for the next week......
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Re: ATL: FIVE - Tropical Depression

#653 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Aug 01, 2012 9:59 pm

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:
MiamiensisWx wrote:
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


The center appears to be moving somewhat faster and closer to 275°, or just north of due west, on the latest satellite frames. The trend coincides with further decreases in convection due to dry air SW of the upper-level low in the Central North Atlantic. Also notable is the increasingly elongated cloud structure due to the expected increase in vertical wind shear. As the system has thus far been an immature one, even 24 hours in which the semi-exposed center outruns the convection (and decouples from the mid-level circulation) could significantly delay development, if not destroy the system, especially as easterly winds will increase as the low-level ridge builds in from the east. Given the trends and climatology, I have revised my expectations and do not really expect TS development until after three days, and even so, the environment just becomes more uncertain farther in time. I think there is a 60% chance that this system will dissipate in less than 48 hours, as the dry air and high shear will remain for two (in the case of the shear, three) more days.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html


Well first post on here since the Debby model debacle :roll: Anyway have to lean with Miami Wx on this. TD 5 looks terrible. Shear is stripping any convection that attempts to fire right off. Looked much better earlier today. Would not be surprised if this doesnt survive the night and opens back into a wave. Maybe a couple days from now condtions might improve but the huge ULL in the central atl will keep this in check or kill it. As for all the new posters talking east coast runner, cat 4 or 3 into texas or north gulf coast region, c'mon get real. This is 10 days away from the US. Hell once a storm is in the gulf the forecast is still usually wrong intensity and/or track wise. Just go back to Debby. Just try and be reasonable and ask questions but not throw out 10 day forecast that are nothing but a guess. Makes reading the threads kind of not fun. Maybe the mods can handle some of this before business picks up if this does intensify and continues w/wnw

ok you think it be open wave? on thur not ts
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#654 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Wed Aug 01, 2012 9:59 pm

It's typical to note stuff like this, yet so often I see people killing storms off. I mean no offense here guys, but storms in the early stages of development commonly deal with adversity. 60% chance of dissipation...are you sure? That's like saying the NHC should have just killed it, as opposed to sending through the Caribbean.....doesn't strike you as a bit odd they didn't?

The important thing to note is the structure has remained impressive all day. The storm is moving into a better upper level wind environment, seen here:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8sht.GIF


I see an environment that has calm periods, and periods of adversity. Time will only tell, but if anything, I say 60% chance at least it does survive....honestly though gut feeling? 75%
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Re:

#655 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Aug 01, 2012 10:03 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:It's typical to note stuff like this, yet so often I see people killing storms off. I mean no offense here guys, but storms in the early stages of development commonly deal with adversity. 60% chance of dissipation...are you sure? That's like saying the NHC should have just killed it, as opposed to sending through the Caribbean.....doesn't strike you as a bit odd they didn't?

The important thing to note is the structure has remained impressive all day. The storm is moving into a better upper level wind environment, seen here:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8sht.GIF


I see an environment that has calm periods, and periods of adversity. Time will only tell, but if anything, I say 60% chance at least it does survive....honestly though gut feeling? 75%

you right nhc dont think as poster post could be open wave by thur
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Re: ATL: FIVE - Tropical Depression

#656 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Wed Aug 01, 2012 10:06 pm

No floridasun, i dont think it will be an open wave. Said it would not surprise me if that happened due to shear tearing it apart at the moment. 50/50 shot of surviving or degenerating. We shall see.
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Re: ATL: FIVE - Tropical Depression

#657 Postby ozonepete » Wed Aug 01, 2012 10:12 pm

MiamiensisWx wrote:
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


The center appears to be moving somewhat faster and closer to 275°, or just north of due west, on the latest satellite frames. The trend coincides with further decreases in convection due to dry air SW of the upper-level low in the Central North Atlantic. Also notable is the increasingly elongated cloud structure due to the expected increase in vertical wind shear. As the system has thus far been an immature one, even 24 hours in which the semi-exposed center outruns the convection (and decouples from the mid-level circulation) could significantly delay development, if not destroy the system, especially as easterly winds will increase as the low-level ridge builds in from the east. Given the trends and climatology, I have revised my expectations and do not really expect TS development until after three days, and even so, the environment just becomes more uncertain farther in time. I think there is a 60% chance that this system will dissipate in less than 48 hours, as the dry air and high shear will remain for two (in the case of the shear, three) more days.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-vis.html


Ok, we'll see how you do over the next two days. Will be interesting since you are at such odds with the NHC.
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Re: ATL: FIVE - Tropical Depression

#658 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 01, 2012 10:14 pm

First sign of new convection popping. It may have a good DMAX period.

Image
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#659 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Aug 01, 2012 10:16 pm

yeah cycloneye, could be a new burst convection.
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Re: ATL: FIVE - Tropical Depression

#660 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Aug 01, 2012 10:17 pm

I think that the shear will keep this in check or cause for slow development, its convecting a little at the moment so I don't think this will degenerate

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