I get the feeling that on the next update by the NHC, their intensity forecast for the short term is not going to be as aggressive for the next 24 hrs as the previous forecast.
The official intensity forecast is pretty much an oulier now over the next 48 hrs or so.
I think that with the way is looking tonight and tonight's intensity models not as aggressive as earlier they may wait until the recon goes in there tomorrow to confirm if it has become a Tropical Storm or not before upgrading it.

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