Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

Martinique is yellow vigilance

franceantilles.fr02.08.2012

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 168193.php

Until tonight, the weather persists on Martinique.
The first stormy rains could intervene on the night of Thursday to Friday. Showers will continue until Saturday evening. The accumulation of rainfall will be around 100 mm in 24 hours. The rivers are likely to spill over. Gusts can reach 120 km/h, hollow of 1.5 m at 3 metres are expected. Stay attentive and read about the evolution of the phenomenon. It's the first cyclonic disturbance to the Lesser Antilles.

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 50.6W
ABOUT 700 MI...1130 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[Gustywind]

VIDEO. Lightning hits an EDF position
by Boris COLOMBET / Photo Sylvère Selbonne franceantilles.fr01.08.2012
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 180364.php

This time it is not rain but the lightning who posed the biggest problems in the transition from the tropical wave on Guadeloupe, yesterday evening. "It said the end of the world", bear witness to the inhabitants of Capesterre-Belle-Eau where a violent fire took in the position of transformation EDF. Immediate consequence of this incident: 20,000 homes deprived of electricity.

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 020838
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
500 AM AST THU AUG 02 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE WEST...HAS NOT
BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 52.6W
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

[Gustywind]

From Stormcarib.com

- SxmDCOMM - ODM closely monitoring weather system east of the Caribbean islands
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/stmartin.shtml


•From: Roddy Heyliger <roddyheyliger at gmail.com>
•Date: Wed, 1 Aug 2012 20:32:02 -0400


News Release

Department of Communication (DCOMM), Ennia Bldg., Longwall Rd., Philipsburg, Sint Maarten W.I. Tel. +1 721 543-1162, 542-4119, Fax: 543-1169; Email: gis at sintmaarten.net; Website: http://www.sintmaartengov.org

For Immediate Release: Wednesday, August 01, 2012/N193

ODM closely monitoring weather system east of the Caribbean islands

GREAT BAY, Sint Maarten (DCOMM) – The Department of Disaster Management (ODM) is closely monitoring the progress of a low pressure system which was upgraded Thursday afternoon to Tropical Depression #5 (TD#5).

TD#5 is expected to become Tropical Storm Ernesto on Thursday and a number of Caribbean islands have issued tropical storm watches for their populations, Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, St. Lucia, Martinique and Guadeloupe.

A Tropical Storm Watch for the aforementioned islands means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within 48 hours.

Early Thursday evening TD#5 was approximately 700 miles east of the Windward Islands.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami, has requested interests in the Lesser Antilles to monitor the progress of this system.

# # #

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
602 AM AST THU AUG 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A TUTT LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS
FORECAST TO RETROGRESS AND BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
LOCALLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE COMBINATION OF
AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AN OVERALL DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR MASS...SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE
SOME LIMITED AND LOCALIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH
AFTERNOON.

THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WILL BE DICTATED BY TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE. AT 5 AM
AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.6 WEST AND WAS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST NEAR 18 KNOTS. A WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST MOTION AT ABOUT
THE SAME FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH SOME STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE AFTER TODAY. BASED ON THE
LATEST FORECAST TRACK...THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE CORE OF
THE DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...
MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO ST CROIX EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AND TO PONCE EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL START
MOVING INTO OUR CARIBBEAN OFF SHORE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
SQUALLS BECOMING MORE FREQUENT SATURDAY...INITIALLY ACROSS ST
CROIX AND THEN ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO BY LATE SATURDAY
MORNING. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW ABOUT A 6 HOUR
PERIOD OF SQUALLY CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF PUERTO RICO...
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH SECTIONS...SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
NIGHT...WITH CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO IMPROVE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

WHILE THE 34 KNOT WIND RADII IS STILL FORECAST TO STAY WELL SOUTH
OF ANY LAND AREAS...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
STRENGTHENING TROPICAL CYCLONE AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...WILL CREATE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ST CROIX AND
THE SOUTH COASTAL SECTIONS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
THESE WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A WIND ADVISORY FOR
SOME OF THESE AREAS...WITH THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR THESE WINDS
TO OCCUR BEING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE SQUALLS WILL LIKELY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY OCCASIONALLY TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND SOME
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO COULD RECEIVE 2 TO
4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. ALL LOCAL
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ...BUT THE CONDS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR. LLVL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY EAST AT
AROUND 15 KTS...SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AFT 03/00Z. VARIATIONS
INDUCED BY THE SEA BREEZE ARE LIKELY BTWN 02/15-21Z. TC IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH TO THE FA BY 04/00Z...INCREASING LLVL WINDS
AND THE SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...MARINERS SHOULD GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR
LESS AND SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...WINDS
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND
LINGER INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO OUR
SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS REMAIN
LOW AT THIS TIME...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED FOR MANY SECTIONS OF
THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. ALL MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 89 79 / 0 10 10 70
STT 82 81 82 79 / 0 10 30 50

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 53.5W
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[abajan]

The winds here this morning seemed to be a bit calmer than usual at first but they're back to normal now. We've had a few light, scattered showers this morning.

[Gustywind]

From our daily newspaper France-Antilles.

WEATHER. Yellow for the arrival of a tropical depression

franceantilles.fr02.08.2012

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 180577.php

Time remains dry and foggy today, without significant rainfall. This weather should not continue with the arrival of a tropical depression (N ° 5), which could develop into a tropical storm, tomorrow. It should cross the Caribbean arc (our archipelago including) at the level of the Martinique tomorrow afternoon. Strong thunderstorms and rains are expected, as well as a strong sea Atlantic side.

Weather remains dry and foggy today, without significant rainfall. Nevertheless, a tropical depression located for time to 1000 Km to the southeast of Guadeloupe and who could develop into tropical storm tomorrow, should cross the Caribbean arc at the level of the Martinique tomorrow afternoon. The weather will degrade on much of the Caribbean arc, including the Guadeloupe archipelago. Strong thunderstorms and rains are expected, and a strengthening of the northeast wind which will blow between 40 and 50 km/h on average, with gusts of 60 to 70 km/h. The sea will be also high on the Atlantic facade. This time will continue during the day of Saturday before an improvement in the evening.

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 54.3W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[msbee]

It's looking like the Northern Caribbean will not have many problems from this but the Central Caribbean should watch it carefully

[cycloneye]

It's looking like the Northern Caribbean will not have many problems from this but the Central Caribbean should watch it carefully

Hi Barbara. Yes,no problems for NE Caribbean it appears as the Cyclone moves to our south. But the CV season is only starting so we have to watch what is going on to our east as the waves emerge Africa.

[greenkat]

The mean of the cone as of right now shows the landfall will be in central St. Lucia as a tropical depression, according to The Weather Channel website.

[greenkat]

The European model shows the system crossing the Yucatan Peninsula, while the American model takes it into the Gulf of Mexico and possibly transforms it into a major hurricane. Furthermore, the possible landfall locations in the Lesser Antilles include Barbados, Saint Vincent, Saint Lucia, and Martinique. Primary concerns are mainly gusty winds and heavy rains.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST THU AUG 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN ITS
HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. TUTT LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC IS HOWEVER FORECAST TO SLOWLY RETROGRESS WEST AND GRADUALLY
ERODE THE UPPER RIDGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. BASED ON THE LATEST
INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AT 2 PM AST...THE
CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1
NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.3 WEST AND MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BASED ON THIS
TRACK...THE SYSTEM WILL ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING INCREASINGLY BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE LOCAL REGION. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO ALSO
BRING AND INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE AND THUS INCREASE THE
CHANCE FOR INCLEMENT WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT LEAST
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND AN
OVERALL DRY AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS...RESULTED IN A MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS
TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...A FEW EARLY MORNING
PASSING SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOME OF
THE ISLANDS...FOLLOWED BY LIMITED SHOWER AND/OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRAJECTORY...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WITH THE MAIN MOISTURE FIELD OF THE DEPRESSION FORECAST TO REMAIN
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. ITS CURRENT TRACK SHOULD MAKE ITS
CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE ISLAND OF ST CROIX EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
AND PONCE AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO BY EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SOME OUTER RAIN BANDS ALONG THE NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THIS FEATURE MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE OFF SHORE
CARIBBEAN WATERS BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL INITIALLY RESULT
IN INFREQUENT SQUALLS... THEN BECOME MORE FREQUENT ON SATURDAY...
AFFECTING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE ACTIVITY WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
PUERTO RICO BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND THE REST OF THE REGION LATER
IN THE DAY. SO FAR AREAS EXPECTED TO BE MOST AFFECTED...WILL BE THE
EASTERN HALF AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS THE
ISLAND OF SAINT CROIX AND A LESSER DEGREE THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS.

PRESENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE SO FAR COINCIDED ON SUGGESTING THAT
THE INCLEMENT WEATHER AND SQUALLY CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH RAPID IMPROVEMENT
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN THIS IS ALL BASED ON THE PRESENT SCENARIO
AND FORECAST GUIDANCE AND THEREFORE WILL BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED
ON NEW INFORMATION RECEIVED FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND
HOW THIS FEATURE UNFOLDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL PR AND VI TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT TJMZ THROUGH ABOUT 02/20Z. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE MAINLY WEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE NEAR THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS ON FRIDAY...INCREASING LLVL WINDS AND THE SHRA/TSRA
COVERAGE IN AND AROUND TKPK AND TNCM AFT 03/15Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 89 78 86 / 10 10 70 70
STT 80 90 80 89 / 20 40 50 50

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
2100 UTC THU AUG 02 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE.

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 56.6W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES...AND DOMINICA
* ST. LUCIA
* MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE

[abajan]

Around 3:30 PM we had a moderately heavy shower accompanied by some fresh wind gusts in Bridgetown. Skies look pretty clear now though and the winds have returned to normal.

[tolakram]

Stay safe everyone! Let's hope Ernesto stays weak.

[HUC]

Hello all,come back from France to the birte of our granddaughter" Léontine...
Just in time for "Ernesto"!!!
Stay on alert friends in Barbados,ST Lucia,Martinica: heavy rains have dangerous effects. Following tcarefully rte sutyation.