ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[NDG]

06z GFDL did not loose the system, for a change.

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WHXX04 KWBC 021140
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE      05L

INITIAL TIME   6Z AUG  2

DISCLAIMER ...  THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE.  IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.  PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR        LATITUDE        LONGITUDE        HEADING/SPEED(KT)

   0            12.5             52.0           285./17.1
   6            12.3             53.8           264./18.1
  12            12.5             55.2           279./13.7
  18            12.4             57.1           266./18.1
  24            12.4             58.8           271./16.2
  30            12.2             60.5           265./17.5
  36            12.5             62.2           280./16.2
  42            12.5             64.3           269./20.9
  48            12.6             65.8           274./14.2
  54            13.2             68.0           285./22.5
  60            13.2             69.6           271./16.0
  66            13.1             71.5           265./18.0
  72            13.3             73.1           277./15.7
  78            13.4             74.5           278./13.9
  84            14.2             75.3           312./10.9
  90            14.9             76.6           300./14.2
  96            15.8             77.4           316./12.2
 102            17.3             79.1           311./21.4
 108            18.0             80.3           300./13.3
 114            18.7             80.9           318./ 9.5
 120            19.2             82.1           297./12.0
 126            19.8             82.8           310./ 8.6




[cycloneye]

Still TD Five.

12z Best Track

AL, 05, 2012080212, , BEST, 0, 129N, 534W, 30, 1008, TD

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[cycloneye]

12z Models

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WHXX01 KWBC 021248
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1248 UTC THU AUG 2 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE (AL052012) 20120802 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120802  1200   120803  0000   120803  1200   120804  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.9N  53.4W   13.8N  57.0W   14.4N  60.8W   14.9N  64.5W
BAMD    12.9N  53.4W   13.4N  55.3W   14.1N  57.3W   14.8N  59.2W
BAMM    12.9N  53.4W   13.5N  55.9W   14.1N  58.7W   14.9N  61.5W
LBAR    12.9N  53.4W   13.4N  56.1W   13.7N  59.0W   14.3N  61.8W
SHIP        30KTS          32KTS          36KTS          40KTS
DSHP        30KTS          32KTS          36KTS          40KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120804  1200   120805  1200   120806  1200   120807  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.2N  68.5W   15.8N  76.0W   14.9N  81.7W   13.8N  83.5W
BAMD    15.5N  61.2W   16.9N  64.9W   17.5N  68.2W   17.1N  70.6W
BAMM    15.8N  64.5W   17.7N  70.9W   19.5N  77.2W   21.0N  82.3W
LBAR    14.8N  64.6W   16.4N  69.9W   18.4N  75.0W   14.3N  79.8W
SHIP        46KTS          53KTS          64KTS          75KTS
DSHP        46KTS          53KTS          64KTS          75KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.9N LONCUR =  53.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  17KT
LATM12 =  12.4N LONM12 =  49.8W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 =  17KT
LATM24 =  11.4N LONM24 =  46.7W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD =   90NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

[tolakram]

Latest

[tolakram]

Latest shear maps from http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[cycloneye]

GFS Ensembles.

[RL3AO]

Certainly a major change from the GFS. Will the 12z follow? What will the Euro do?

[hurricanes1234]

The latest image shows TD 5 regaining convection and having a more closed circulation. Does anybody else think so as well?

[Nederlander]

This looks like its shaping up to be a classic ridge-riding storm that the models will be flip-flopping on.. Not going to put too much worry or flippancy into the models until this system gets closer to the gulf.. I lose too much sleep that way lol.. But IMO, the models won't get a decent grasp on a potential weakness until 5-7 days out..

[tolakram]

25 frame live water vapor loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=25

[SouthDadeFish]

Check out CIMSS ADT analysis:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 AUG 2012 Time : 121500 UTC
Lat : 12:58:06 N Lon : 53:33:15 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 /1010.8mb/ 37.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.4 2.8 3.9

Center Temp : -58.2C Cloud Region Temp : -50.4C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.92 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

[knotimpaired]

Well to answer my question and to satisfy Gusty's curiosity, I checked all of the islands in the region of #5 and Trinidad has the most.

They have 97 Cargo/Tankers with the majority of them at anchor. Most other islands have 6 or less.

So indeed the ships have taken safe harbour there.

[Gustywind]

Well to answer my question and to satisfy Gusty's curiosity, I checked all of the islands in the region of #5 and Trinidad has the most.

They have 97 Cargo/Tankers with the majority of them at anchor. Most other islands have 6 or less.

So indeed the ships have taken safe harbour there.

Thanks to you we all appreciate!

[Gustywind]

Looks like TD5 is regaining convection and looks a bit more heathly.

[ozonepete]

Yeah, shear has dropped off, Gusty. Also doesn't appear to be any dry air. Could ramp up quickly today. Minimally I think it won't gyrate up and down as wildly as yesterday.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SouthDadeFish]

Progress of TD 5:

Yesterday at 17:45Z:



This morning at 12:45Z:



Looks like more banding today and more convection over the center.

[canes04]

Appears to have slowed down as it consolidates again. Shear may relax enough today to make a run at TS.

[NDG]

12z SHIPS shows shear dropping a little during the day today and really dropping tomorrow as it tracks through the islands, so a good possibility that it could strengthen some as it passes through, IMO.

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*   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    * GOES AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE       *
                    *        FIVE  AL052012  08/02/12  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    30    31    32    33    36    40    46    49    53    57    64    71    75
V (KT) LAND       30    31    32    33    36    40    46    49    53    57    64    71    75
V (KT) LGE mod    30    30    31    31    32    34    37    41    46    53    63    76    88
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        19    18    15    15    12     9    11     5     8     6     7     6     8
SHEAR ADJ (KT)     0    -2    -2    -1     0    -4     0    -1    -6     0    -3    -1    -4
SHEAR DIR        281   270   251   268   269   237   279   232   294    13   353   257   285
SST (C)         27.9  28.1  28.1  28.1  28.1  28.0  28.4  28.4  28.2  28.5  28.5  28.5  28.7
POT. INT. (KT)   138   141   140   140   140   139   145   144   141   145   144   143   146
ADJ. POT. INT.   142   144   143   142   142   141   147   145   139   142   138   135   135
200 MB T (C)   -53.8 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.0 -53.5 -52.6 -53.1 -52.4 -53.0 -52.2 -52.8
TH_E DEV (C)       7     8     9     9     9    10     8    10     8     9     9     9     8
700-500 MB RH     61    59    59    60    61    60    65    62    67    68    69    72    72
GFS VTEX (KT)      9     9    10    11    11    12    13    10    11     9     9    11    12
850 MB ENV VOR     0     3    16    25    23    33    38    50    66    82    62    65    42
200 MB DIV        15    33    49    66    33    51    39    44    13    46    44    71    37
700-850 TADV     -11    -8    -6    -8    -3    -2    -3    -2    -3     2    -3    -5    -3
LAND (KM)        802   692   540   419   343   377   345   304   252   201   100   157   295
LAT (DEG N)     12.9  13.2  13.4  13.6  13.7  14.1  14.8  15.4  15.7  16.2  16.9  17.5  18.2
LONG(DEG W)     53.4  55.1  56.8  58.4  59.9  63.1  66.5  69.7  72.7  75.3  77.8  79.6  81.1
STM SPEED (KT)    17    17    16    15    15    16    16    15    14    13    10     9     7
HEAT CONTENT      35    30    44    52    53    40    47    65    37    87   116   129   103

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17      CX,CY: -16/  3
  T-12 MAX WIND:  30            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  757  (MEAN=623)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  23.4 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  57.0 (MEAN=65.0)



[TheBurn]

13:00 UTC RGB Natural Color

[Nederlander]

Well you can definitely tell from those two sat images that the convection is starting to consolidate and wrap around its center.. I'd be surprised if it doesn't get upgraded today.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.