ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Dave]

Dave,departing from St Croix.

Uh no still on runway...instruments are powering up though if you look at the two hdobs so far.

And in the air...enroute now.

[djmikey]

Can you guys explain the pics instead of just the hours for the ones of us that are at work and pics are filtered? It would really help. Im sure I'm not the only one! Thanks!

[barometerJane61]

06z GFS, pretty significant swing to the north with landfall near TX/LA border. IMO, under 200 hours is the point where the GFS will start getting a general idea long range with regards to the strength of ridge. If the future GFS runs continue creeping right along the N Gulf coast then maybe there will be a breakdown of the ridge. Looking at the loop, TD5 does not look like it's moving 21 mph, maybe the building convection gives it the appearance of slowing down??
06z GFS at 204 hours:

Any rain out of this for Texas,especially the Northern portion of the state would be welcome.We've been sweltering under temps over the century mark for 7 or 8 straight days now.No relief in sight

[meteortheologist]

It appears that TD5 is not producing strong convection but developing a good circulation pattern.

http://img228.imageshack.us/img228/1208/visltd5edit.jpg

Agreed, except that area you labeled outflow is actually low-level cloud bands moving in towards the center. The outflow is the thinner cirrus clouds at upper levels; that's what's lacking on the north side right now due to some shear.

how does this shear affect likelihood of it being a mexican system or heading north towards texas coast?

[PTrackerLA]

12z GFS basically loses TD #5 at hour 78...

[SouthDadeFish]

Can you guys explain the pics instead of just the hours for the ones of us that are at work and pics are filtered? It would really help. Im sure I'm not the only one! Thanks!

The pics RL3AO is posting are of three different layers in the atmosphere. The yellows represent the vorticity (spin) at 850 mb (lower level of the atmosphere). More vorticity pretty much means a stronger storm. The second layer is represented by the black contours, which is the height of the the 500mb isobar. This is the layer at which tropical cyclones are usually steered by. The higher numbers represent ridges such as the circle seen in the middle of the Western North Atlantic. Lower numbers represent troughs of low pressures. In general, ridges usually keep tropical cyclones on a more westerly course while troughs tend to recurve storms out to sea. The final layer is represented by the wind barbs. These are the wind speeds at 200mb (upper level of the atmosphere). Usually these are looked at to determine how strong wind shear will be. In general, strong upper level winds are unfavorable for tropical cyclone development and intensification.

These are the basics of the images. Once you learn more about them you can gain a lot from them. I hope this helps.

[Nederlander]

It appears that TD5 is not producing strong convection but developing a good circulation pattern.

http://img228.imageshack.us/img228/1208/visltd5edit.jpg

Agreed, except that area you labeled outflow is actually low-level cloud bands moving in towards the center. The outflow is the thinner cirrus clouds at upper levels; that's what's lacking on the north side right now due to some shear.

how does this shear affect likelihood of it being a mexican system or heading north towards texas coast?

none really.. Only thing is that down the road, stronger systems feel weaknesses more so than weaker systems. So stronger storms typically move poleward quicker.. It's really going to depend on the location of the weakness, the storms speed, and it's strength as it enters the gulf (if it reaches the gulf)..

[EyELeSs1]

Hey everyone! It's been a while.

Anyways I originally came on to post about the demise of TD 5 thinking it may be opening up with outlfow boundaries shooting out from the N/NW etc. etc. but now looking at the bigger picture it seems like TD5's overall envelope may be slightly better organized and still becoming better organized as convection begins to pop again. Also, Seems like there may be a band trying to wrap up on the south side so there should be some W winds down there somewhere still but let's see what Recon finds I guess.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 021555
AF302 0105A CYCLONE HDOB 04 20120802
154700 1737N 06432W 7336 02796 0124 +123 //// 095018 018 /// /// 05
154730 1736N 06431W 7120 03044 0128 +103 //// 103017 018 /// /// 05
154800 1735N 06429W 6911 03291 0131 +086 //// 103018 019 /// /// 05
154830 1735N 06427W 6718 03524 //// +070 //// 101017 017 /// /// 05
154900 1734N 06425W 6532 03753 //// +051 //// 099015 016 /// /// 05
154930 1733N 06424W 6351 03981 //// +032 //// 102017 018 /// /// 05
155000 1732N 06422W 6171 04213 //// +014 //// 092022 024 /// /// 05
155030 1731N 06420W 5998 04439 //// -000 //// 095021 022 /// /// 05
155100 1731N 06419W 5844 04646 //// -017 //// 105018 019 /// /// 05
155130 1730N 06417W 5705 04839 //// -020 //// 103014 015 /// /// 05
155200 1729N 06415W 5578 05016 //// -021 //// 094011 012 /// /// 05
155230 1728N 06413W 5462 05187 0271 -024 //// 096009 009 /// /// 05
155300 1727N 06411W 5347 05359 0285 -036 //// 101010 011 /// /// 05
155330 1727N 06410W 5291 05445 0291 -044 //// 103012 012 /// /// 05
155400 1726N 06408W 5289 05445 0290 -045 //// 105011 012 /// /// 05
155430 1725N 06405W 5290 05443 0288 -045 //// 106010 010 015 000 01
155500 1724N 06403W 5291 05442 0288 -045 //// 105010 010 015 000 01
155530 1723N 06401W 5290 05442 0287 -045 -086 102009 009 016 000 00
155600 1722N 06358W 5291 05442 0288 -045 //// 102009 010 017 000 01
155630 1720N 06356W 5293 05440 0288 -045 //// 102009 010 015 000 01
$$
;

[Blinhart]

06z GFS, pretty significant swing to the north with landfall near TX/LA border. IMO, under 200 hours is the point where the GFS will start getting a general idea long range with regards to the strength of ridge. If the future GFS runs continue creeping right along the N Gulf coast then maybe there will be a breakdown of the ridge. Looking at the loop, TD5 does not look like it's moving 21 mph, maybe the building convection gives it the appearance of slowing down??
06z GFS at 204 hours:

Any rain out of this for Texas,especially the Northern portion of the state would be welcome.We've been sweltering under temps over the century mark for 7 or 8 straight days now.No relief in sight

Yes but unfortunately this model doesn't show a weak system hitting the Texas/Louisiana border, but a very strong system that would rival Rita and Gustav, that is a scary thought. So if it does go to the Tx/La border it is a weak system that does bring in a lot of rain to the drought starved areas in Texas and Oklahoma.

[Zanthe]

It appears that TD5 is not producing strong convection but developing a good circulation pattern.

http://img228.imageshack.us/img228/1208/visltd5edit.jpg

Agreed, except that area you labeled outflow is actually low-level cloud bands moving in towards the center. The outflow is the thinner cirrus clouds at upper levels; that's what's lacking on the north side right now due to some shear.

how does this shear affect likelihood of it being a mexican system or heading north towards texas coast?

It really doesn't. We have no idea if it's going to hit texas, going to hit mexico. Hell, at this point it could hit Antarctica. Anywhere along the gulf coast needs to be prepared, because quite frankly, we don't even know if the storm is going to just go poof or is gonna last until the Gulf of Mexico.

[RL3AO]

78hrs. Very weak over central Caribbean.

[gatorcane]

The upper low to its north is "enhancing" the outflow on that side just a little TOO much, but that should be changing as the depression approaches the islands. Wind shear looks to be relatively light once it's in the Caribbean, which should allow for slow strengthening. I don't expect much impact on the islands. Could be a small area of TS winds on the north side, probably staying south of Guadeloupe, Gusty.

It could very well be a hurricane in the NW Caribbean next Tue/Wed and into the southern Gulf by late next Wed or early Thu. Won't venture any guess beyond then, as the models probably don't have the flow right that far out. Much will depend on how much the ridge to its north weakens early next week. Won't rule out an eventual impact anywhere at this time - from southern MX to the FL Panhandle. I think the FL Peninsula is probably not going to be impacted, as that ridge to the north should hold through Monday, regardless of how strong the storm becomes. (not saying the FL peninsula is 100% out of the woods yet, though).

Yeah I would have to agree with you as far as where this ends up. Below is a VIS SAT snapshot over Alaska, looks like a pretty potent low pressure and frontal system there. I am guessing this system would eventually be the one that may weaken the ridge over the Southern United States next week? I also seen another low behind that one...

loop: http://www.arh.noaa.gov/satloop.php?sat ... ector=4gvf

[wxman57]

Impressive on the MIMIC TPW loop now. Good moisture envelope and circulation.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

[Sanibel]

Lessers SST's. This should tip it in the direction of sorting out that weakness and developing.

[RL3AO]

[hurricanes1234]

The CV activity may finally be picking up. If I am not mistaken, there is an impressive tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa, much better-looking than the disorganized ones we were seeing last month.

[RL3AO]

96hrs. Barely any signature near ABC islands.

[Vandymit]

Future doesn't look that great on this GFS run.

[SouthDadeFish]

That's not the main vort at 96 hours. The remnant of TD 5 at 96 hours are already south of Jamaica on the 12Z GFS. Its easier to follow at 500mb.